Gallup says blowout: 55-44

by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:57:56 AM EST

The final presidential poll from Gallup says its gonna be a blowout for Obama:

When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

11 percent!

Its interesting too, that Gallup finds no difference in their 'traditional model' and in their 'expanded model' of likely voters. That seems sorta odd, doesn't it?

On the other end, yesterday TIPP came out with a poll showing McCain closing strong, and with a 47-45 margin. There's a podcast with the TIPP pollster. They still have two days left in the field, so maybe TIPP will wind up like Gallup.

I would also note that the DailyKos poll, which has about as favorable a turnout as possible, has polled the race at 50-46 each of the last two days. There's still another day of polling for R2K as well.

And in less than 40 hours now, its over (we hope).




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Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

Anyone with commonsense that watched the Amazing Cincinnati event last night for Obama knows that this election will be a landslide tomorrow.  Obama will carry OHIO and Virginia, making it IMPOSSIBLE for McCain to comeback.  


by nzubechukwu on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:10:57 AM EST

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (2.00 / 1)

55% would be beautiful because it would be the biggest margin since 1984.  I really want to see Obama's victory be larger than Bush 41's 1988 victory.


by gavoter on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:48:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

I just listened to the podcast.  TIPP was the closest predictor of results last time, but I'm trying to remember if the range of poll results was as broad as it is in this election, or if they were the closest among other relatively close polls.  

Gallup seems unrelistic.  My sense is it's going to be close but not nailbitingly, but Gallup mystifies me most of the time anyway.


by mady on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:19:18 AM EST

we all keep forgetting (none / 0)

that no pollster has ever repeated "most accurate pollster" from the previous cycle.

remember zogby 1996?


by yellowdem1129 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

"Gallup seems unrelistic."  No, your logic is unrealistic.  Didn't you see the Washington Post/ABC poll, NBC Wallsteet Journal Poll, Zogby, CNN?  Come on Mady?


by nzubechukwu on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

Hey nzubechukwu.  It's not over til it's, like, over, and I'd much rather be pleasantly surprised than un.  And, in general, Gallup seems a bit fanciful. The Kos poll actually seems more realistic to me today, the 50-46, looking at the state results and extrapolating.


by mady on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (2.00 / 1)

That being said, I hope you and Gallup are right.


by mady on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:55:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

The final USA Today/Gallup poll finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain nationally by 11 points, 53% to 42%.


by nzubechukwu on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

All of the polls were near each other in 2004.  TIPP might have been the most accurate but most people had it within a point or two.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (2.00 / 1)

I thought so.  I didn't recall any polls that year I could hang any exuberance on but was not sure if I was remembering correctly.


by mady on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:50:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IBD (none / 0)

How can anyone trust a pollster that only polls 210 people per day?


by Cleveland John on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: really 210 people (none / 0)

That is frackin' useless.  It's hard enough to do good polls with 1000 a day.


Want a progressive global warming novel, not a right wing rant? Go to www.edwardgtalbot.com for a free audio thriller.
by edparrot on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:29:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (2.00 / 1)

Nate Silver, and god has he been a breakout star this year, mentions that IBD/TIPP had Obama up by 11 in the middle of the Rev. Wright controversy.  For whatever that's worth.


When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?
by Jess81 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:24:10 AM EST

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

It may be worth a better night's sleep tonight.


by mady on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:31:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The two LV models (2.00 / 1)

I wonder if Gallup fine-tuned their model by the feedback from the people who said they have already voted. Anyways, whatever their model is, McCain is exactly wherever both he and us want him to be.


by ann0nymous on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:38:22 AM EST

Batlleground has Obama up 50-44 now (none / 0)

They've had it tight the whole time and now show Obama up 6.

TIPP is the last tight pollster.


by elrod on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:29:29 AM EST

Re: Batlleground has Obama up 50-44 now (none / 0)

That is why you need to look at the RCP average which is Obama +7


by BDM on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:42:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's the Cell Phone Factor - Check out 538.Com (none / 0)

The difference between Gallup and DailKosR2000 is that Gallup includes cell phone users, Daily Kos does not.  538.com has an unbelievable graph which shows there is a huge cell phone effect with the polls.  The polls that include cell phone users have Obama up by double digits, while the polls, even democratic leaning ones, that do not show much tighter races.  


by ProfessorReo on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:44:39 AM EST

Re: It's the Cell Phone Factor (none / 0)

Yeah, I really think this is the blind spot for all the posts that have the race close. The post election analysis should be interesting. Also, Nate Silver suggested that polls validate their models by proofing them against the data they've collected from the early voting exit polls. I wouldn't be surprised if that's what Gallup did - because it seems the Dems are really taking advantage of early voting... go us. Anyways, all of this anecdotal evidence is making feel like a landslide is very possible. Which I'd love to see as it would really knock the air out of the GOP and stop much of their post-election whining about how ACORN stole it.
by j royale on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:58:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Kos (none / 0)

Who would have thought Kos would be on the low end the past couple of days?

I would like to have seen Gallup poll today; the others are polling.  It's odd.


by esconded on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:19:36 AM EST

Re: Kos (none / 0)

Kos shows 51 - 45 today and was 51 - 44 yesterday and the day before. The cited figure of 50 - 46 in this diary is incorrect.


by edg1 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

On the "traditional" vs. "expanded" likely voter issue, Gallup actually had more people in the "traditional" category.  Why?  I think the most likely explanation is that as early voting proceeded Gallup kept moving people who had been "expanded" only into "traditional".

Did you see that here in North Carolina 54% of the new registrants this year have already voted?  This compares to only 40% of the folks who had voted in the past.  So these new folks, who most likely voter screens would have bypassed, are actually voting big time.  Credit the incredible Obama turn-out machine!


by LanceS on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:24:03 AM EST

Re: Gallup says blowout: 55-44 (none / 0)

I noticed that oddity too. But they explained in their notes yesterday that the "traditional" model is now weighted to fit their prediction that the turnout will be a massive 64% this year, which they base on various factors including the massive early voting numbers. They do not make this readjustment for the "expanded" model.

That may explain why it's possible for the counter-intuitive result that the "traditional" model has more people in it than the "expanded" model.

I think Gallup have been a bit naughty burying this information in a footnote, to be honest. Effectively it means they have abandoned their trad model, which explains why the numbers in that line ballooned up in the final week while the others barely changed. Without clearly admitting it, Gallup have in effect dumped their "trad LV" model as they've come to the firm conclusion that this will be a high turnout election.

As to their topline numbers, my guess is they're overcooking it, as the state numbers don't really seem to fit with the kind of landslide EV pattern we should get if there's a 10-point margin of victory nationally. Remember Bush I got 426 EVs in 1988, and he only beat Dukakis by 8% in the popular vote.


by al1 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This can totally happen (none / 0)

particularly with ads like this getting put up in Florida:

http://www.progressflorida.org/av

Keep up the great work everyone!


Visit Progress Florida today: http://www.ProgressFlorida.org
by Progress Florida on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 12:06:01 PM EST


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