Both Gallup and Zogby released their latest tracking poll results including interviews conducted Sunday. Notice a trend?
Gallup -- RVsObama 53 (52, 52, 52, 50, 51, 50...)
McCain 40 (41, 41, 41, 42, 42, 43...)Gallup -- LVs (Traditional)
Obama 53 (51, 52, 51, 50, 49, 49...)
McCain 42 (43, 42, 43, 45, 46, 47...)Gallup -- LVs (Expanded)
Obama 53 (52, 52, 52, 51, 51, 51...)
McCain 42 (43, 42, 43, 44, 44, 44...)
This led Gallup to project the final popular vote margin at a stunning 11 point Obama victory:
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign. [...]
Gallup's final estimate is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004. (Gallup estimates voter turnout from the results of key voter turnout questions, using a model that compares how respondents' answers to these questions have related, historically, to actual turnout.) This year's higher turnout estimate is fueled by a surge in early voting -- 28% of registered voters in the final poll indicated they had already voted -- and higher turnout among blacks than in any of the last four presidential elections.
Zogby has Obama expanding his lead slightly as well.
Zogby -- LVsObama 50.9 (49.5, 49.1, 50.1, 50.2, 49.1, 49.0...)
McCain 43.8 (43.8, 44.1, 43.1, 43.3, 44.4, 44.7...)
From Zogby's analysis:
"Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. In a multi-candidate race, assuming the minor candidates can win around 2%, 51% can win. Obama holds the groups that he needs and continues to hold a big lead among independents and his base. McCain seems to be holding his base without expanding it or moving into Obama's territory. A reminder: we will have another release based on polling through midnight Monday out early Tuesday."
There is a silver lining for McCain in the new WSJ/NBC News poll, which has him gaining 2 points in a week (alert Drudge!) Unfortunately for him, that still puts McCain at an 8 point deficit.
The new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday, found 51% of likely voters favored Sen. Obama, versus 43% who favored Sen. McCain. Six percent remained undecided, with a third of those saying they were leaning toward a third-party candidate. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points."The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.
"This poll has all the earmarkings of an electorate that has reached an opinion that Barack Obama would be a good president," Mr. Hart said. "The uncertainties [about Sen. Obama] that were so prevalent early in the year have just melted away."
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