The AP estimates that as of Saturday, about 27 million votes had been cast.

Indeed, Election Day is becoming a misnomer. About 27 million absentee and early votes were cast in 30 states as of Saturday night, more than ever. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in pre-Election Day voting in key states.

That has Democrats -- and even some Republicans -- privately questioning whether McCain can overtake Obama, even if GOP loyalists turn out in droves on Tuesday. Obama may already have too big of a head start in critical states like Nevada and Iowa, which Bush won four years ago.

Public Policy Polling has some interesting numbers from their state polling on how each candidate is doing among those who've already voted and who intends to vote tomorrow. Barack has some pretty dramatic leads among those who've voted already. The question is, will John McCain be able to catch up?

Nevada:

Obama 51
McCain 47

71% of the state's likely voters say they have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a much broader 57-43 lead. McCain's bringing the race to within four points is predicated on winning election day voters by a margin of 57-38.

Indiana:

Obama 49
McCain 48

A little under a quarter of likely voters have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is up 52-44 with those planning to vote on election day.

Georgia:

Obama 48
McCain 50

Barack Obama still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia. He's leading 52-47 among voters who have already cast their ballots, which accounts for 57% of those surveyed. John McCain is up 54-43 with those planning to vote tomorrow.

The demographics of early voters and of those who are election day voters are quite different. 35% of early voters were black, 56% were women, and when it comes to party identification 46% describe themselves as Democrats while 40% are Republicans.

For likely voters who have not yet gone to the polls just 24% are black, 42% are Republicans compared to 38% who are Democrats, and a slight majority are men.

Florida:

Obama 50
McCain 48

Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.

Montana:

Obama 48
McCain 47

Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage. The extent to which those folks follow through is likely to be the deciding factor in who takes the state.

North Carolina:

Obama 50
McCain 49

PPP projects that [Obama] racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.

But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.

Here is the demographic composition of folks planning to vote on election day itself:

-41% Democrats, 43% Republicans, 16% independents
-79% white, 17% black
-51% men, 49% women

Ohio:

Obama 50
McCain 48

[Obama's] He's banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.

The trend appears to show McCain closing somewhat but the common thread is that Obama's organization and enthusiasm advantage have combined to give him dramatic early vote leads. Other fringe benefits of so many Obama voters having voted already include that those voters are free to volunteer to GOTV for Barack tomorrow instead, not to mention the fact that the lines will be shorter than they would have otherwise been, thus allowing more voters to vote. But there's something else at play here. Psychologically, if you're a McCain voter, the idea that you start out behind on election day I suspect can be somewhat daunting. Think about it -- you're already not so psyched about the guy and on top of that you have the distinct feeling that voting tomorrow is an exercise in futility. Anyway, that's one factor to look for tomorrow that will determine whether we are talking landslide or not...and that goes for up and down the ticket.