MyDD :: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

by Todd Beeton, Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 02:29:17 PM EST

While President-elect Obama has not yet offered Hillary Clinton the job of secretary of state, the speculation over whom Gov. David Patterson will appoint to replace her until a 2010 special election can be called at which point it will be up to the voters, tends to be divided into two camps: Andrew Cuomo and not Andrew Cuomo.

Fox News has the Yes on Andrew Cuomo side covered:

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is emerging as the leading contender to take over the Senate seat of Hillary Clinton, who is poised to head the State Department after Barack Obama takes offices as President.

Blogs and polls are showing a preference for Cuomo. In a new Marist poll, 43 percent of New York voters said they would like to see Cuomo replace Clinton, 1 percentage point more than those who said they were not sure about their preference.

A Washington DC blog, examiner.com, predicts Cuomo will get the nod.

As for the No on Andrew Cuomo camp, Chris Cilizza names him only the 4th most likely pick at 12 to 1 odds:

Cuomo, the son of the former New York governor, is the biggest name (outside of the Kennedys) in the potential field. And, with Paterson on course to run for a full term in 2010, the Senate could be a nice landing spot for Cuomo. And yet, few party insiders take the prospect of a Sen. Cuomo seriously -- and we don't know why.

Could it be because he doesn't even want the job? From New York Magazine:

Frederic U. Dicker talked to some of the state attorney general's friends, who said that Cuomo "is not inclined" to replace Hillary Clinton if she takes the secretary of State gig and Governor Paterson offers him her seat. Still, many Democrats think he's the obvious choice.

So if not Cuomo, then who? Cilizza cites Thomas Suozzi, the Nassau County businessman who primaried Eliot Spitzer in 2006, and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) as the most likely candidates, primarily, it seems, due to their potential statewide appeal come 2010. Whoever is chosen needs to be able to appeal to the areas of the state that have traditionally been most difficult for Democrats: Long Island (which is where Suozzi is from) and upstate (Gillibrand's home turf.) Cilizza cites a few other factors in Gillibrand's corner:

[Gillibrand is] a political dynamo who received the most votes of any New York incumbent (177,667) earlier this month,... her fundraising prowess ($4.6 million raised in the past two years) and the idea of replacing Clinton with another woman, makes her a top prospect.

For those Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fans out there (he topped a straw poll over at dailyKos), conventional wisdom (via Cilizza) is that he may be too liberal to win statewide but remember, he's up for a spot in Obama's administration, possibly even as the head of the EPA, which is where I'd like to see him end up.

Tags: ny-sen, hillary clinton, andrew cuomo (all tags)

Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

I do agree Robert Kennedy would be good at EPA. and given his difficulies with his voice I think that full scale campaigning in 2010 and 2012 would be difficult.

Kirsten of course is just finished her first term. And a statewide race would be very demanding. But she is upstate and a woman. but Carolyn Maloney is also a women and a very good fundraiser as well. She of course, unlike Kirsten, hasn't had a contested race since she first ran. While it's wonderful that Kirsten acted like she took nothing for granted in her 2008 race, having campaigned for her in 2006 amongst Republicans, I had no doubt she was going to be in great shape...they loved her. But she has been very diligent in community outreach...but it's a whole state and she has really young children.

Tom Suozzi is handsome and well liked on Long Island....though his public statements on choice, in a state with a very strong record on keeping abortion legal for all women...young and poor most specifically...give a cause for concern.

by debcoop on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 02:39:45 PM EST

I know Tom Suozzi (none / 0)

I worked with him in college, know him personally (I went to school in Nassau County). He is strongly pro-choice on a political level and pro-life on a personal level. I wouldn't be concern about his voting record on choice. Knowing his wife, she would never allow him to not vote 100% pro-choice...and quite frankly neither will New York.

My favorite for the job is Brian Higgins. It's time to throw upstate a bone and he's awesome. He will be a strong ally of Obama's economic policies and that may be needed in the Senate.

However, it we knew we could keep her House seat, Gillibrand would be awesome. She's great even though she's moderate and would be a great successor to Hillary.

But Gillibrand is only 42 and has a long career ahead of her. She may still be a Senator one day...maybe Governor.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 02:57:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I know Tom Suozzi (none / 0)

...maybe president too? I think this would be a great career move for her and could possibly pave the way for a run for president in 2016 or 2020.

by KainIIIC on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I know Tom Suozzi (none / 0)

Tom Suozzi was in favor of the Abortion Ban legislation signed by George Bush in 2003...he was against a health AND A LIFE EXCEPTION FOR WOMEN in the first piece of federal legislation since ROE v WADE which recriminlized abortion. There are jail sentences in that bill.

by debcoop on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 05:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not true (none / 0)

he supported the ban on late term abortion (as do I and many many Democrats) but thought it needed to include an exception for life of the mother. He also gave tons of money to Planned Parenthood in Nassau County, which, might I add, is constantly attacked with disgusting graffiti and dead animals on the front doorstep.

Planned Parenthood was like 5 blocks from my college. I drove by it everyday.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 05:59:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you do know (none / 0)

that the "late term abortion" ban, bans abortions that are as early as 12 weeks into pregnancy?

The ban passed by congress had NO health exception for the mother or any protections if the mother is going to die.

It also banned the SAFEST 2nd trimester abortion.

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 06:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

abortion procedure sic (none / 0)

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 07:07:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

The science crowd--like on Pharyngula--is seriously opposed to Robert Kennedy because he's espouses a lot of New Age woo--like the idea that autism is induced by vaccination. But maybe good science isn't a prerequisite for becoming the EPA chief.

by whomever1 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

You think that the environmental protection agency should be run by another person who doesn't understand the environment? Seriously, science is very much a requirement to doing a good job. RFK does fight for a number of environmental topics but he does so from a distinctly anti-science agenda. I doubt he has any clue how CO2 causes global warming but rather simply accepts that it does because it's occasionally hot. -- This is hollow and terrible support for extremely critical set of issues.

I'd take any random toxicologist from any chair of any university over RFK even without glancing at politics.

by Tatarize on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 06:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

"given his difficulies with his voice I think that full scale campaigning in 2010 and 2012 would be difficult."

Wow, that's incredibly offensive. He can't run because he has spasmodic dysphonia?? So what? So does Susan Collins!

by barack to the future on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:24:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

It's not offensive...it's just a fact. It would be hard. And for a man with 3(?) or 4(?) kids 2 heavy duty campaigns in 2010 and 2012 would be hard. He's already stated his family matters a lot in any decisions he makes. Good for him. It's nice to see this be a factor not only for a woman but a man.

by debcoop on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 05:33:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Oh how cool, a Kennedy and a Cuomo - maybe we can find a Roosevelt or a Vanderbilt too? I hear Biden's kid turned down his seat - maybe Chelsea Clinton could step in somewhere?

The party of nepotism - all in the family? Well no, the Romneys and Bushes keep it balanced.

by Desidero on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:01:40 PM EST

Well (none / 0)

The people of New York did elect Andrew Cuomo to statewide office already. He's not gettng the Senate seat because he's the son of a former Governor...he's already won statewide office on his own merit and is a popular AG.

Let it be known I actually voted for Pirro, but still.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:05:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well (none / 0)

Why they hell did you vote for Pirro?

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was young, naive (none / 0)

and thought she was more qualified because she was a DA, thought Cuomo was trying to springboard to the Governorship and I wanted to say that I voted for at least one Republican.

Anyway, Cuomo's been a stunning success, so.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Biden's son (none / 0)

didnt turn down his seat. He's in Iraq and cannot serve as a senator while deployed

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:01:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

sounds like you have an issue. why should a name automatically disqualified because of some knee jerk reaction? seems to me the second (and first) roosevelt was a pretty damn good choice

by swissffun on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

RFK Jr. is a mercury/autism nutjob (2.00 / 1)

RFK Jr. would be a horrible choice at EPA. He doesn't understand the science well enough to get that there's no link between mercury and autism, though he keeps pushing one. He may be passionate, but we need somebody who gets the science first and foremost.

by Neurotopia on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:16:46 PM EST

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Kirsten Gillibrand is pretty good (and hot!) except for the whole Blue Dog thing.

by MNPundit on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:18:29 PM EST

What about Nita Lowey? (none / 0)

What about her? Wasn't she going to run back in 2000 to replace Moynahan before Clinton got into the race?

Does she no longer want the job? It seems that she should get first dibs.

by gavoter on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:19:26 PM EST

Re: What about Nita Lowey? (none / 0)

She is 71.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:42:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Depends on where the Democratic party thinks it can go under Obama.

Cuomo, if he is cut from his father's clothes, should be about as liberal as Kennedy Jr. Want a centrist female ala Clinton, go for Gillibrand. Given that the Democratic party rejected the old Clinton brand of center-right politics during the election, then one of the two former candidates look promising.

With Ted Kennedy likely looking at his last term, another Kennedy in the Senate would be a plus.

by MainStreet on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:30:51 PM EST

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (2.00 / 1)

As New Yorker I can say definitively that Robert Kennedy is not too liberal for the state at large. New York is an overwhelmingly Democratic state (62 percent of the vote for Obama) and will likely elect any Democrat that Paterson picks to a full term. The New York Republican party is decimated, and has no prospect of recovering anytime in the near future.

by wjpugliese on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:41:28 PM EST

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (2.00 / 1)

The GOP is down to just 3 congressmen, they're clearly not competitive statewide, and all this talk of a Rudy comeback is laughable. Paterson can pick whoever he wants, and that candidate will win.

by Skaje on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:04:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Banking on that is not wise planning. The economic conditions are gettin gworse...Paterson's numbers are going down...I wouldn't just assume anything. Better to be prepared.

by debcoop on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 05:35:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Who is going to run against him?

Does the GOP have a single potential statewide candidate? Peter King is the only one who comes to mind, and he'd get destroyed outside of Long Island.

by Skaje on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 06:52:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

I hate appointments for the senate.. why can't they just have an election?

by obama4presidente on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 03:58:59 PM EST

cuz it costs a few million (none / 0)

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (1.00 / 1)

Cuomo is a convincing fake populist, so he should slide in nicely to Hill's spot.

"Flaks never fail." --Me

by D Seizure on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:01:57 PM EST

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Todd wrote: "Whoever is chosen needs to be able to appeal to the areas of the state that have traditionally been most difficult for Democrats."

Why in the world is that so? New York is among the most Democratic states in the Union. According to the 2008 presidential exit poll, fully half self-identified as Democrats, and only 26% as Republicans; 31% self-identified as Liberal, 43% Moderate, and only 25% Conservative; only 71% of the voters were White non-Hispanic; and 87% of its vote comes from urban or suburban areas, and only 13% from rural areas.

Seriously, Todd, what possible justification is there for your statement that the appointee must be able to appeal to the areas of the state that have traditionally been most difficult for Democrats? Why can't we just kill them by turning out our base?

by Ron Thompson on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 04:14:22 PM EST

Because our "base" (none / 0)

really isn't enough...see Mario Cuomo.

A Republican can still win statewide in New York if you make it city vs. rest of state. Make upstate Democrats stay home and upstate Republicans vote in huge numbers. An upstate Democrat would solidfy the Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Ithaca/Albany base and the city base.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 05:35:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Because our "base" (none / 0)

I thought I was with you nrafter (I'm a big believer in appealing to all voting blocs, no matter how big ours is), but you lost me.

Mario Cuomo lost in 1994. If anything, NYS has gotten more Democratic since then.

Upstate is emptying out, and Democratic voters are left there. NYC's population grew in the last Census, and it remained strongly Democratic.

Maybe a base strategy would work.

by rayspace on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 11:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

Not Gillibrand. We need her in that House seat until after the census, when we can redistrict and make it easier for a Democrat to win. Right now, that's the most GOP-leaning Congressional district in the state, much more so than the three remaining districts that still have Republicans in them.

by admiralnaismith on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 05:09:27 PM EST

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary? (none / 0)

One quick note: Todd's article refers to Suozzi as a Nassau County businessman. He's actually the county executive - the top official in a county of more than a million people.

I'm not familiar with his positions on any federal issues, other than what appears to be a moderate stance on abortion - one which is fine with me, based on nrafter530's comments. All of his work to date has been on state and local issues - focusing on vitally-needed Albany reforms.

by bkverve99 on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 10:11:19 PM EST

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