Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update

Some interesting developments since earlier this week when Al Franken seemed like Mr. nice guy when it came to challenging Coleman ballots. As of this posting, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune website, with 64% of votes recounted, Franken has made up 95 votes to close to within 120 votes of Coleman. It should be noted, however, that this number is with Franken challenging 848 of Coleman's ballots and Coleman challenging 821 of Franken's. Remember that all challenged ballots get removed from the count until they can be assessed by the canvassing board.

Nate Silver explains:

Meanwhile, the number of ballot challenges -- cases in which one or both candidates appeal an initial ruling my local elections judges -- has increased significantly. Among ballots added to the Secretary of State's totals since last evening, the Franken campaign has challenged 7.5 out of every 10,000 ballots, and the Coleman campaign 7.2 out of every 10,000. These figures are more than double the number of challenges on the first two days of the recount process.

Interestingly, contrary to what the tally is showing, the Franken campaign earlier today claimed that the difference between him and Coleman is actually under 100 votes.

...the Franken campaign claims the true difference is much less than that when you take into account disputed ballots that aren't included right now in the totals but are likely to be resolved pretty easily by the state canvassing board.

Even if a challenged ballot is taken out of the total recount pool for the time being, the Franken campaign thinks it has an idea of what the numbers will eventually look like based on the opinions of the election workers at the individual sites -- and they think the real Coleman lead right now is less than 100 votes...

How can this be? Check out this video from The Uptake to get a sense of just how liberally Coleman is challenging, no doubt to give the illusion that he has a wider lead than he actually does.

Clearly all these votes will be placed in Franken's column ultimately, it's just that in the short term there's no downside to Coleman's challenging them and the upside is the illusion of a bigger lead than he truly has. Nate does see a downside in the long run, however:

The disincentive to challenge ballots is precisely this sort of thing -- challenges that look so ridiculous that they'll weaken your ability to take the moral highground. If the Coleman campaign is on the ball, they'll be ready to show similar frivolities from the Franken campaign as well. The Uptake also reports that the Secretary of State is also taking under advisement a proposal to make all challenged ballots available for public viewing on a website.



Display:


my fear is that Franken's challenges (none / 0)

may be equally frivolous. Why would his people suddenly find five times as many meritorious challenges on the third day?

I am finding it hard to be optimistic about this race. Franken needs those rejected absentee ballots to be considered, but that may not happen in many counties.


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by desmoinesdem on Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 10:23:58 PM EST

Re: my fear is that Franken's challenges (none / 0)


Oh, it's that both sides have realized the winning margin is probably going to be votes in the low double digits.  Maybe single digits.  They can't afford to lose any margin and so both sides' ballot challengers have been told by their campaigns to challenge anything and everything moderately plausible.

It was a pretty good day for the Franken people overall; they cut the Coleman margin to less than half on a day on which under 20% of the ballots were recounted, to what they think is under 100 votes.  About 35% remain.

Franken made up almost 40  votes of margin in one little town today where they previously hadn't looked closely at ballots they had facilely put aside as undervotes.

There are photos of a couple of examples of disputed ballots on the MPR (Minnesota Public Radio) website.  Most of them are actually pretty clearcut and the challenges the Franken people have made seem generally more plausible than the Coleman ones imho.


by killjoy on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 02:30:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: my fear is that Franken's challenges (none / 0)

Not the case in my county.  Absolutely not.


Howard Dean is my go-to guy
by lojasmo on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:29:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

1 -- It would be helpful to see the entire ballot in this video.  For instance, if the voter cast a vote for president, but none for Senate, are there are other races where the voter did not select a candidate?  A ballot that had a vote only for president, with ALL other races blank, would be a pretty clear statement of the voter's intent.  This video doesn't help with that.  However, it should be apparent to everyone that a ballot that has no mark can't be counted as a vote for any candidate.  The standard is intent of the voter, not reading the mind of the voter.

2 -- Let me get this straight -- Coleman is challenging ballots that are marked for McCain for president and Franken for senate on the grounds of... well, what exactly?  Is Coleman saying it's not possible for voters to split their tickets?  Since when?

In summary, Coleman says that ballots that are not marked should be counted for Coleman, and that ballots that are marked for Franken should be counted for Coleman.  If that's how elections will be decided, then from now on, how about if we put just one candidate's name (the Republican, naturally) on the ballot and dispense with any confusion?


by 1st Republic 14th Star on Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 11:36:39 PM EST

Who is the real comedian in the race? (2.00 / 1)

Maybe Franken should just accept the logic that whoever voted for McCain voted for Coleman and whoever voted for Obama voted for Franken. There would be no need for recount.  


by ann0nymous on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:31:40 AM EST

Very sweet thinking! (none / 0)

However, how would we factor it Dean Barkley's respectable percentage?


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:36:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Well Franken has been challenging votes clearly marked as Coleman, so its both sides. What bothers me abotu this whole thing is this. Are we so desperate that we actually want a complete buffoon like Al Franken in office. Tp me all it does is make a mockery of the position and the party when we support someone like this idiot. I donkt think much of Coleman, but Al Franken? Cmon.....


by adb67 on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 09:25:01 PM EST

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Franken a buffoon?  WTF?  He has a degree from HARVARD.  He's been writing books and doing radio shows on public policy for years.  He was a close friend of Paul Wellstone's.  Do you think Jesse Ventura is more qualified to serve in statewide office?  Arnold Scwarzenegger?  A carpet-bagging Hillary Clinton?  Someone like Ted Stevens, Larry Craig, or David Vitter?  Or Jim Bunning or Pete Domenici for that matter?  A 91 year old Robert Byrd or 100 year old Strom Thurmond?  A true dummy like Mark Pryor?  A right-wing nut job like Tom Coburn, Jim Inhofe, Jon Kyl, Jeff Sessions, or Jim DeMint?  A racist like Kit Bond or Trent Lott?  A phony alcoholic womanizer like Norm Coleman?

What exactly is wrong with Al Franken serving Minnesota as a US senator?  How exactly does he cheapen the role of senator or hurt the liberal/Democratic cause?  I think he's far more qualified than a lot of current and previous members of that body, having worked in it for 3 years myself.


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by Sandwich Repairman on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 11:24:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Franken is a joke. He has no real credentials....please, he wrote a bunch of books. He is a mockery of the system and an example of the stupidity of voters today. No way I could ever vote for a knucklehead like that. You stated he had a degree from harvard, well Bush had an MBA from Yale, so what does that mean? Give me a break, Franken is as qualified to be a senator and sarah Palin was to be President.....


by adb67 on Mon Nov 24, 2008 at 12:56:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Summa cum laude from Harvard.

Got funds for improved helmets for thousands of troops.
Seven USO tours.

Raised hundreds of thousands with his PAC for democratic candidates.

Put the smackdown on O'reilley.

Raised two wonderful kids.

Etc.


Howard Dean is my go-to guy
by lojasmo on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 07:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

I don't know who this "we" is that you speak about.  You are a republican, and all you do here is trash Franken.  We are democrats, for the most part, and largely support democratic office seekers.


Howard Dean is my go-to guy
by lojasmo on Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 07:37:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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