Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update

Speaking of the Minnesota Senate recount, results are being updated in real time at the Minneapolis Star Tribune website. Yesterday's certification had Coleman ahead of Franken by 215 votes. As of this posting, with 17% of votes and 25% of precincts recounted, Al Franken has gained 34 votes (or rather, Franken has lost 34 fewer votes than Norm Coleman has) for a margin of 181 votes.

Nate Silver explains:

The reason the vote totals are going down when you might intuitively expect them to go up is that either candidate has a right to challenge any ballot for any reason, even if it had been counted as legal originally. When a vote is challenged, it is deducted from the opposing candidate's total. These challenged votes will go before the state canvassing board in December and be debated (and debated and debated) one by one (by one by one).

Team Coleman has challenged 141 ballots, while Team Franken has challenged 122.

There are also instances where undervotes are counted as valid and added to the candidates' totals, such as Franken's net gain of 28 votes in St. Louis County:

In several precincts in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis County, Franken made a net gain of 28 votes today that officials said were faintly marked and therefore not originally picked up by an old brand of optical scanner.

Elections officials said the votes were missed by a small number of outdated "Eagle" scanners still in use in 18 of the large county's 184 precincts.

The machines read a ballot that requires voters to draw a thick line connecting the back and front ends of an arrow that points to the candidate.

Only half the St. Louis County precincts that use those old machines had been counted, so one suspects there may be plenty more where those came from.

Also, earlier today Franken won a partial victory when a judge ordered Ramsey County -- MN's 2nd largest -- to release information of the voters whose absentee ballots had been invalidated. While this ruling could mean other counties follow suit, here is the rub:

A key board hasn't decided whether to allow wrongly rejected absentee ballots into the statewide recount.

Certainly, so far, the numbers are moving in the right direction but Franken's going to need to slash that margin at a quicker pace if he's going to overtake Coleman. Some good news for Franken: the two largest counties, Hennepin and Ramsey, which are both Franken strongholds, have only just begun to count (5% and 15% of votes respectively so far.)



Display:


nerve-wracking (none / 0)

I can't say I feel extremely confident about this one.

Still have trouble believing that more than 400,000 Minnesotans voted for Dean Barkley.


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by desmoinesdem on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:37:17 PM EST

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Franken is at 63.5 on Intrade.

Eventually the challenged ballots will be ruled on.  So if Franken can get this down to 20 by
the end of the recout, he may still have a chance.


by esconded on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:45:42 PM EST

Coleman's campaign response to those older voting (none / 0)

machines undercounting Franken's vote was just ridiculous. They claimed that they expected it and that in fact those undervotes were lower than they had first expected. Which means that they suspected that the original count was wrong. Then why did he declare victoty?


by ann0nymous on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 09:53:27 PM EST

164 now (none / 0)


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:01:03 PM EST

Probably closer than that (none / 0)

Simply because Coleman has challenged more votes than Franken
(around 20 more). It seems from what I understand is that if all the challenged votes are counted as the canvassing board thinks they ought to; then Franken wil gain those 20 votes.
by ann0nymous on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:15:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

1 * 7 * 4 (none / 0)


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Unlike the Star-Tribune who puts the recount in perspective of the original count, the Decretary of State counts the REcounted ballots only, and they show Colemen ahead by 15,000 votes, which proves that Republican areas were counted so far, still Franken managed to close the gap.
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/2 0081104/SenateRecount.asp

by rolnitzky on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:10:39 PM EST

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/feature s/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/

You can see some of the ballots and vote on what you think. Pretty cool.


by Demrock6 on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:12:31 PM EST

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

That is cool.  And I was very fair in my awarding of votes.  I should be an election judge in Minnesota.


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by TheUnknown285 on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 11:11:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

www.mnrecount.newsladder.net (none / 0)

Joe Bodell is running this site, great resource


James Boyce
by jamesboyce on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 10:52:58 PM EST

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

Franken does not need to pick up the pace if one makes the reasonable assumption that the challenged ballots are likely to stay roughly as originally counted. If they stay as originally counted, then that means a net gain of 19 votes for Franken, which together with the 34 already gained equals a Franken gain of 53 votes from 17% of the votes cast, a pace that would result in a Franken win by roughly 100 votes.


by mindermast on Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 10:54:26 AM EST

Re: Road To 60: MN-Sen Recount Update (none / 0)

We counted a bunch of ballots yesterday.  The challenges will, by and large, be rejected, and counted as previous.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 11:41:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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