MyDD :: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP

Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:10:23 PM EST

Bumped

The latest tally looks even better for Democrat Mark Begich than the last one.

Ted Stevens (R): 147,004 votes (46.58 percent)
Mark Begich (D): 150,728 votes (47.76 percent)

Begich's lead now stands at 1.18 percentage points, or 3,724 votes.

Update [2008-11-18 21:10:23 by Jonathan Singer]: The Associated Press has called the race for Begich. That makes seven pick ups, and 58 to 40 seat advantage for the Democrats in the Senate (with two races still yet to be decided).

Tags: AK-Sen, Senate 2008, Alaska, Road to 60 (all tags)

Permalink :: 37 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Lead Stretches (2.00 / 1)

So will we have the final numbers by 6 PM Alaska time today? Or are there more votes to count tomorrow?

I am just wondering when the Alaska SOS can call the election and declare a winner, excepting of course for a recount.

by gavoter on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 06:06:28 PM EST

There are only about 2,500 votes... (2.00 / 1)

Left to be counted. Stick a fork in Stevens. The felon lost! ;-)

We shall overcome!

by atdleft on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

58 Seats!!! Whoo-hoo!!! (2.00 / 1)

The Associated Press has now called the race...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27789536/

Congratulations, Senator-elect Mark Begich!!!

by Obamaphile on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:05:44 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 2)

I think people who claimed "Well Democrats won the Presidency but other than that their showing was a little unremarkable" can eat their words now.

At least TWENTY seat gain in the house and 58 seats in the senate with a possibility of reaching 60. Yeah, it was a Democratic wave. It may just not seem so much so since the results are all coming in over a longer period of time than all at once.

My pre-election guess was 58 seats for Democrats. Looks like I matched that bet so far but I have no problem losing it ;)

by werd2406 on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:20:53 PM EST

stop calling it 58 (1.50 / 2)

that traitor isn't a democrat

by ab03 on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:31:44 PM EST

Re: stop calling it 58 (none / 0)

I'm assuming you mean Lieberman, not Begich...

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 12:09:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop calling it 58 (none / 0)

Right, because the Republicans thank him (Lieberman) and hug him tight after every organizational vote.

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:36:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (1.50 / 2)

the count is 57-41 with 2 to go. the skank LIEberman is a republican with no business having a Democratic chairmanship or lunching with Democrats.

by gak on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:40:07 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

It's 58-40 with two to go.

by zorro24 on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:44:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know you're frustrated... (2.00 / 1)

Over Lieberman. I am, too. Still, what happened is done & he's still an "Independent Democrat".

Don't worry, though. We'll take care of Traitor Joe in 2012. ;-)

We shall overcome!

by atdleft on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (none / 0)

Something tells me when it comes time to vote for majority leader, McConnell will have less than 41 votes and Reid will have more than 47 (not counting MN and GA, of course).

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:37:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

cnn just (2.00 / 1)

sent email out too

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:40:53 PM EST

Begich Wins (2.00 / 1)

There are only about 2,500 votes left to count, at least 700 less than Begich's lead.

by zorro24 on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 09:43:23 PM EST

The road to 58 (none / 0)

That's where I'll think it winds up. That'll be most Democrats in the Senate since 1980. And regarding Lieberman, I think it will be good if he winds up voting like one.

I for one, think 2010 could be very difficult in Senate races, if the GOP recruits well. We could have to defend three appointee races (all in blue states) and that's never very good. And in 2012 the map will be tough with all of the 2006 gains to defend and with 24 out of 33 seats to defend.

Better to have 58 than 57. And unfortunately, we may need the Sore Loserman to keep a majority down the road.

by esconded on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 10:03:12 PM EST

Re: The road to 58 (2.00 / 1)

Absent an disastrous first two years for Obama, I think 2010 is looking good for the Democrats. At most they'll have three competitive seats, the Republicans at least twice that many. Good odds that we push past 60 in 2010.

As for the hypothesis that the Republicans will recruit well, that presupposes a clean and quick resolution of their impending civil war...I don't see that happening.

by InigoMontoya on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 10:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2010 (2.00 / 1)

Is the last batch of Senators who have not gone through election during the Democratic upturn. They were elected in 2004, a Republican leaning year that saw a flood of church organized Bush voters.

Judd Gregg in NH and Arlen Specter in PA, for example, will probably run into problems. Specter will be 80 in 2010. George Voinovich in Ohio and Richard Burr in NC will be running against the local as well as the national tide. Jim Bunning barely won against an unknown in 2004 and is widely considered to have Alzheimer's. He'll be 79 in 2010. Do you really think he'll run as well as the heavily bankrolled national power, Mitch McConnell did this year?

One more thing. The Bush recession of 2008-09 will be long gone by 2010. It will be morning in America for the Democrats by 2010. And compared to the incompetence of the Bushies, the Obama administration doesn't have to look like FDR or Lincoln to look like a vast improvement.

by David Kowalski on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 04:39:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2010 (none / 0)

The history of midterm elections, until 1998 and 2002, is daunting. But I sure hope you're right. Republicans will be defending 19 seats to our 15, not counting Biden's and any other special elections.

Martinez, McCain, Vitter, and Bond are also up. Brownback is retiring, and Sebelius is term-limited as Governor. I don't see any Dems who are in real trouble or likely to retire and leave us with tough seats to hold. I did a diary recently on 2010 Senate races.

Give to Redistricting Project candidates for Democratic maps 2011-2021! http://www.actblue.com/page/redistrictin gproject

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 04:48:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The road to 58 (none / 0)

2010 should not be difficult... in fact, the number of vulnerable republicans is much higher than even this year... and the number we have to defend is lower... Still, the first midterm after a new president is always tough... even Reagan got killed in his....

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 10:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The good news here (2.00 / 1)

is it takes a lot for Alaskans to throw out their incumbents. They barely threw out a convicted felon.

Begich may have this seat as long as he wants it. Unless Sarah Palin is still popular and makes a quixotic run in 2014.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 10:18:01 PM EST

Re: The good news here (none / 0)

At least 2008 is one door God didn't open!

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:38:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 2)

I'd really like to know which ham sandwich disguised as an "advisor" came up with a count that includes Smilin Joe as a 60th vote on anythiing of importance to be passed in the Senate. Olympia Snowe will line up on a cloture vote in many more scenarios than Lieberman. "60" is a fake number of Democrats. I'd take 51 Democrats with spines, but apparently we only have 11 of those...

by Stumptown Dave on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 10:20:25 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 2)

Interesting point, given that Lieberman voted with the Democrats 80% of the time and Snowe voted with the Democrats 50% of the time in the last Congress. I guess only in bloggerworld is 50>80.

Expect Lieberman to vote for cloture on anything involving choice and the environment, on both of which he gets 100% ratings from liberal ratings groups. He also gets very high ratings on labor issues. In fact, for all intents and purposes the only things he voted against the Democrats were on Iraq and some defense and security issues, and there are probably Republican votes available on those issues if it ever comes up.

Interesting that none of the discussion on the Lieberman vote pointed out that he gave over $200,000 to the DSCC this cycle. That was a lot more than many of the Senators who were voting, which may have made it hard to argue that they were more supportive of the caucus than he.

I mean, I don't love the guy, but in the end I think this is much ado about nothing. Let's wait until he actually roadblocks any of President Obama's initiatives before we start complaining. If he doesn't, then what's the big deal?

by LanceS on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 10:46:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

But what were the 50 and what were the 80? Snowe was there on Iraq when Lieberman wasn't, I know that much...

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:39:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (none / 0)

You must not be referring to the first and most important Iraq vote of all--the one authorizing the war. The only Republican senator to vote no was Lincoln Chafee.

Give to Redistricting Project candidates for Democratic maps 2011-2021! http://www.actblue.com/page/redistrictin gproject

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:36:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (none / 0)

Right. I'm talking about the present, 2008, not the past, 2003. The supplemental funding battles. If memory serves, we got Hagel, Smith, Snowe, and Collins.

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 05:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

He will. I'd put money on it.

Give to Redistricting Project candidates for Democratic maps 2011-2021! http://www.actblue.com/page/redistrictin gproject

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:35:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

Not just Snowe, but Collins and Specter as well. And depending on the issue, various others.

The Wayward Episcopalian

by Transplanted Texan on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 01:39:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

The vote was 42-13.

Sandwich Repairman's Rule #1: Get the facts straight.

Give to Redistricting Project candidates for Democratic maps 2011-2021! http://www.actblue.com/page/redistrictin gproject

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Now accepting bets... (2.00 / 1)

Does Bush pardon this felon?

by PhilFR on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:06:53 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

So we got 2 senators today Lieberman & Begich
Lieberman has voted with Democrats 90% of the time, and with the Iraq war behind us, I expect him to vote with us 100%.
I don't think Begich will vote with us that much

Either way it's 2 down to our road to 60

by rolnitzky on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:17:41 PM EST

Exactly (2.00 / 1)

Lots of folks losing sight of the prize here. Lieberman is locked in now as a Democrat. He owes his life to Obama. If we can win the recount in Minnesota we sit at 59 and have a real shot at Georgia.

But even without those two, we can pick up the two Senators from Maine and Specter on most issues to break a filibuster.

by elrod on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exactly (none / 0)

A voice of reason?

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:36:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exactly (2.00 / 2)

He doesn't owe Obama anything... not in his mind, at least. Obama broke with the progressives and campaigned for Lieberman's tough re-election in 2006... and look how Lieberman repaid the favor!

You've no doubt read the old fable about the scorpion and the frog. Lieberman is that scorpion!

The fable says how, "One day a scorpion arrived at the bank of a river he wanted to cross, but there was no bridge. He asked a frog that was sitting nearby if he would take him across the river on his back. The frog refused and said, 'I will not, because you will sting me.'

"The scorpion replied, 'It would be foolish for me to sting you because then we would both drown.'

"The frog saw the logic in the scorpion's words, and agreed to carry the scorpion across. But when they were halfway across the river the scorpion stung the frog. The stunned frog asked, 'Why did you sting me? Now we will both die!'

"The scorpion replied, 'Because I'm a scorpion ... and that's what scorpions do.'"

Lieberman is a Republican hack... it's who he is, and attacking Democrats is what Lieberman does... It's what he's always done, from Bill Clinton on.... He simply can't help himself!

He's already sharpening the knives as we speak! He'll be on Fox News probably tomorrow bashing democrats... Oh well... can't say that we didn't warn the democratic Senators!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 12:14:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exactly (2.00 / 1)

He didn't start with Bill Clinton. He unseated a liberal Republican, Lowell Weicker, by running to his RIGHT. Traitor Joe's trajectory hasn't changed in 20 years. He just moves further and further along it. And he'll keep doing it as long as he gets away with it.

For the record, I think Franken will win. I don't think Martin will. Then again, my pre-election prediction was 59-41. ;)

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by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:45:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Begich's Wins, per AP (2.00 / 1)

We're still in Iraq. We haven't even begun preparations to get out. Obama wants a timeline Lieberman opposes. Behind us??? Hardly. That's like trusting Nixon's secret plan to end the Vietnam War in 1968.

Give to Redistricting Project candidates for Democratic maps 2011-2021! http://www.actblue.com/page/redistrictin gproject

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Nov 19, 2008 at 02:39:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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