Tracking Poll Update: Obama Stretches Lead

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline5144
Gallup (Trad)5242
Gallup (Exp)5242
Rasmussen Reports5146
Research 2000/dKos5144
Composite:51.2544.00

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain in Gallup's traditional turnout model is his largest since the survey has been published, and it matches his largest spread in the expanded turnout model as well. Yesterday's Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll also found Obama expanding on his lead, pushing it to 53 percent to 44 percent over McCain -- or largely in line with both the composite of the polling above, as well as the trend.

But what it all comes down to is this: McCain needs this race to tighten if he wants a shot at winning the presidency, but not only is there no evidence of tightening in the race -- he is still having difficulty crossing the 45 percent threshold in national polling -- there is in fact evidence that the race is one again diverging, with Obama's lead growing.

We are 3 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?



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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Stretches Lead (none / 0)

Wonderful news.
There is only 2 days left for McCain to try and close the gap and it is not happening.  I really want Obama to get at least 54% of the vote so that his margin is as big as Bush 41 had in 1988.
by gavoter on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:25:57 PM EST

Times Up (none / 0)

McCain's last chance to dictate the news cycle was yesterday. Either the polls are right or wrong. If they are right, which we think they are beyond a reasonable doubt, then he's long since run out of time to close that gap. (Election Day) polls open in less than 66 hours.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, this can't be right.... (2.00 / 1)

Esconded TOLD me to be worried....

Handsomegent predicates a Crushing McCain win, when 50 Million PUMAs descend on the polls...

Fransis/Stat man/SocketPuppet DeJour are clear, PA is soldily McCain, states are flipping even as we speak...

ARRRGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

How was that, enough panic for a typical Democrat?


Rush Limbaugh, Sara Palin and Joe the Plumber...The Triad of Republican Irrelevancy.
by WashStateBlue on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:42:49 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Stretches Lead (none / 0)

Until I saw that Gallup number, I really was wondering if we were maybe losing... PA has tightened up quite a bit, Zogby had that weird result last night, and McCain has been on fire rallying the intellectually challenged...

But, what is very important in that Gallup finding is that both the traditional model and expanded model are now equal.  That means that the expected increase in voter turnout for Obama is already happening and should continue to push things forward...

That alone should keep us motivated to keep on moving!


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:43:19 PM EST

momentum momemtum (none / 0)

It is the bandwagon effect, now the fence sitters want to vote for the winner.  

Bill and Barack alphaing together didn't hurt.  

This is soooo much fun.  


what a relief
by anna shane on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:50:13 PM EST

or the contrarian effect (none / 0)

Undecideds tend to break for the candidate behind...

Because, that is a bet hedge?

Still I think the numbers we DON'T have from polling, new voters, kids, should do it..

God, I am glad I am going to be somewhere where I can't get saturated by the media.

Monday is going to be hell to watch IMO.


Rush Limbaugh, Sara Palin and Joe the Plumber...The Triad of Republican Irrelevancy.
by WashStateBlue on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 02:01:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: or the contrarian effect (none / 0)

Not really in this case.  McCain is the quasi-incumbent, the heir to the Bush spot.  Typically, in the waning days undecideds make up their mind whether they want to continue on the current track or make a change.    

Hotline's tracking poll this morning showed a +3% for Obama and a +3% for McCain, which means they started pushing undecideds in these final days.  Looks like it is going about even to both candidates.  


by devilrays on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 02:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: or the contrarian effect (none / 0)

I know you want to keep worrying, but, the pug base isn't motivated to vote.  They don't like McCain, the 30 percent of Bush supporters will vote for Sarah, hoping John won't last a full term, but many of those undecideds won't vote at all.  

People tend to want to back winners, it's an identification thing, so anyone who is holding back but isn't in Bush's 30 percent and who votes will probably vote for Barack, although I'm sure that John will get some of the sympathy vote.  if pugs have sympathy.  


what a relief
by anna shane on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 03:31:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: momentum momemtum (none / 0)

Great Post Anna.  Your so... right.


by nzubechukwu on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 05:09:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

GOTV video (none / 0)

Pass it on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOOUtOf1- -M

Tune in, turn on, turn out.

dk


by McCainBush08 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 02:05:03 PM EST

Re: GOTV video (none / 0)

nice video, nice song, thanks.


what a relief
by anna shane on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 03:34:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We need to Get the Younger Voters to Vote (none / 0)

We need those youthful ones to vote for the polls to become reality.  Take a youth to vote movement needs to be apart of the Obama GOTV effort.   However, I am  happy the polls are trending toward Senator Obama and Biden.  Go Team...


by markieparkie on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 02:34:55 PM EST

Re: We need to Get the Younger Voters to Vote (none / 0)

Most of this has already happened.   Early voting states are mostly in the bank.   Georgia wont have the Friday numbers up until Monday, but through Thursday over 30% of all registered voters had done their job (53% of all 2004 voters).  

Lines on Friday were up to 10 hours long.

I am really not sure how much more we can do down here to get out the vote.


by gavoter on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 02:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Chill out on PA.! (none / 0)

So says Tom Jensen, pollster for PPP. They will release a poll later today showing  a solid lead for Obama. (presumably without the flaky internals that Ras had, -80% AAs for Obama?? Give me a break)

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/ 2008/11/chill-out.html


by cmpnwtr on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 03:35:34 PM EST


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