Well, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Minnesota Senate race, technically he's dropping but Coleman is dropping more. After two polls showing exactly opposite results (Survey USA had Coleman up 10, The Star Tribune poll had Franken up 9) we now have two polls that appear to agree that the truth lies somewhere in between...with Franken in the lead.
| MPR/Humphrey Institute 10/3-5 | Rasmussen 10/7 | RCP | Pollster | |
| Franken | 41 | 43 | 40 | 40 |
| Coleman | 37 | 37 | 37.8 | 39.2 |
| Barkley | 14 | 17 | 17 |
Notice for the first time Franken leads the RCP average AND the extremely conservative Pollster trend estimate. A big story story of this race appears to be the Dean Barkley (I) effect. Not only does he seem to have hit a ceiling of around 17% but his presence in the race is clearly hurting Coleman more, capitalizing on the anti-incumbency fever in the air.
Currently Nate Silver still has this as a lean Republican seat with Coleman's chances at hanging on at 55% but you'll notice from his Senate race update today that does not include the new Rasmussen poll. It will be interesting to see how that changes things.
At the same time, Nate has the chances of Democrats winning a 60 seat majority at 25% and rising. Every day, it seems, the chances become better and better and the media becomes more and more intrigued.
Here's MSNBC on the importance of 60:
With 60 Democratic senators next year, the Republican minority would be unable to stop any legislation that the Democratic leadership was intent on passing.And unless the Republicans got help from conservative-centrist Democratic senators, such as Ben Nelson of Nebraska, they would be powerless to block any presidential nomination, if the president happens to be a Democrat. [...]
There are now 11 vacancies on the federal appeals courts and 33 on the federal district (trial) courts. And Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, who turns 89 next spring, may well retire next year.
So let's help get Democrats to 60 by helping out Al Franken at our Road to 60 ActBlue page.
Al Franken currently has 51 donors -- the same number of votes we currently have in the Senate. Our goal by the end of the day: let's get Franken up to 60.
Poetic, ain't it?
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