Tracking Poll Update: Last Night's Baseline

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4544
Gallup5241
Rasmussen Reports5145
Research 2000/dKos5141
Average:49.7542.75

These numbers represent the baseline coming into last night, with presumably all, or virtually all, of the interviews upon which the data above having been conducted prior to the debate. When you throw in the Battleground tracker (.pdf), which shows Barack Obama leading 49 percent to 45 percent, and the McClatchy/Ipsos poll, which shows Obama up 47 percent to 40 percent, into the mix, today's overall average stands at 49.2 percent to 42.7 percent.

I'm about to board a plane back to Portland to be with family for Yom Kippur (to those observing the holiday tonight and tomorrow, have an easy fast), so this might be my only post today. So feel free to also consider this an open thread... What's on your mind?

And as a special bonus before I get on the plane, here's a link to the Maron v. Seder online radio show, which streams live at 3 PM Eastern/12 PM Pacific. Today's guest: Sarah Silverman (oy, I hate to miss the show!).



Display:


Gallup: (2.00 / 1)

"This one goes to eleven."


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:16:04 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Last Night's Baseline (none / 0)

At this point, you have to wonder what Diageo is smoking.


by Beomoose on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:27:35 PM EST

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing (none / 0)

Anyone have any insight into wht Diego says it's that close?


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:35:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, I was wondering the same thing (none / 0)

My guess would be that Diageo is working for McCain...


by french imp on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, I was wondering the same thing (none / 0)

See my note above. Is there a chance in hell that Cindy McCain's business has never had any contact with a fellow alcohol distributor?


Let the spin begin!
by KoolJeffrey on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, I was wondering the same thing (none / 0)

Here's the link to their company statement.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documen ts/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracke r100808release.pdf


Let the spin begin!
by KoolJeffrey on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:02:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The skinny on Diageo (none / 0)

Here's what Diageo says about its business:

About Diageo: Diageo (Dee-AH-Gee-O) is the world's leading premium drinks business with
an outstanding collection of beverage alcohol brands across spirits, wines, and beer
categories. These brands include Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, J&B, Baileys, Cuervo,
Tanqueray, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards wines.

Wow, another alcohol distributor polling for McCain. How obvious can you be?


Let the spin begin!
by KoolJeffrey on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Last Night's Baseline (none / 0)

Monday outlier due to having small samples.  I expect to see a movement towards Obama on Friday.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Last Night's Baseline (none / 0)

They changed the party ID sample from D+6 to D+2. Was that a temporary thing? Why did that happen?


by elrod on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

about these daily tracking avg (none / 0)

I think if your going to use an average polls on a daily basis, you should use the same polls from the same organizations and not pick and choose which one you like and don't like to include in these averages. Otherwise just post the poll numbers and let the readers decide, with your added commentary of course. Because will happen is that your avg from day to day will be a mixture of apple, oranges and grapes.


by FLS on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:52:33 PM EST


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