MyDD :: 338-200

338-200

by Todd Beeton, Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:50:35 AM EST

Today with the release of a new Rasmussen poll showing Obama up 4 points in Nevada (a shift of 7 points in 3 weeks) we officially turn Nevada blue, giving Barack Obama 5 more electoral votes for a total of 338-200.

RCP: O 49.3 M 47.5
538: O 47.1 M 46.6
Pollster: O 48.0 M 47.7

MyDD EV Counter: O 48.1 M 47.3

Both RCP and Chris Bowers agree that, if you push leaning states, Obama is up to 364 EVs (this includes our 338 + Missouri's 11 and North Carolina's 15.) Pollster's more conservative map has Barack winning the election with 296 even without the toss-up states. Nate Silver's projection has Obama winning 343.8-194.2 and the super conservative NBC map puts Obama at 264 before toss-ups are factored in. Notice that every single toss-up state on the NBC map is a state Bush won and, as Chuck Todd notes, each is a state that John Kerry didn't set foot in after October 1.

Here are the past several elections' EV totals for comparison:

1980 Reagan 489 - Carter 49
1984 Reagan 525 - Mondale 13
1988 Bush 426 - Dukakis 111
1992 Clinton 370 - Bush 168
1996 Clinton 379 - Dole 159
2000 Bush 271 - Gore - 266
2004 Bush 286 - Kerry 251

Tags: mydd ev counter, nevada (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

Things certainly are going great. But as a loyal dem, I'm so used to losing that I can't help but feel chicken little about the whole election.

I'll feel much better when we're done with these two debates. I suspect McCain is going to pull some absolutely insane stunts at each one, desperate to make up ground. I also suspect these stunts will fail and even drive his campaign further towards defeat, but I can't pretend there isn't a chance he may succeed.

These polling results may still have one last big move in them before election day. My hope is it's toward landslide, but you never know...

by Siguy on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 03:13:32 AM EST

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

Don't worry. No way McCain can do more than hold his own in the debates. I'm not an Obama koolaid drinker, but he's not going to make the kind of major gaffe that could have a big impact.

Aside from a few truly outlandish scenarios, the main worry between now and the election is a terrorist incident or the capture of bin laden. I think those would still not make the difference, but no one really knows.

Want a progressive global warming novel, not a right wing rant? Go to www.edwardgtalbot.com for a free audio thriller.

by edparrot on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:10:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

I have always predicted a landslide in this election. Looking at past performances, landslide may be too much hyperbole, can anybody think of another word? Mudslide, maybe? Dunno.

My prediction stands, in spirit.

Howard Dean is my go-to guy

by lojasmo on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 05:24:54 AM EST

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

How about "clinton-esque" victory?

by JitteryZeitgeist on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 07:29:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

But Clinton never won over 50% of the vote. I'm hoping, and it looks like, Obama will.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:39:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

Very good point. Our biggest victory since 1964 was when Carter got 50.1% of the vote.

No matter how much I would love to see him win a Johnson style victory, I would be very happy to see Obama match Bush I's total from 1988.

To see Obama get over 53% of the vote on election day would be wonderful.

by gavoter on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 12:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

McCain was damn near finished during the primary, too. I'm absolutely loving these poll numbers, but we can't get cocky. McCain resurrected a dead campaign before and he can do it again.

Like the first poster in this thread, I'm so used to losing elections that I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in this cycle. Stay focused and vigilant, everybody!

I really, really like these numbers though.

And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.

by thatpurplestuff on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 05:44:06 AM EST

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

McCain had months to resurrect his campaign and favorable states to do it in. Plus, he was running as the least bad of bad choices. The circumstances are completely different.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 11:40:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

He also got less than 50% in many of these races. He had Huckabee and Romney running a strong second and third place race in many cases.

His biggest saving grace was that the GOP Primaries are winner take all. This preveneted either Huckabee or Romney from hanging on from too long. If they ran their primaries more like the GOP Huckabee would have been a factor much longer.

I still don't doubt that the race will tighten up again, but I do hope that more independents start to see through the shitstorm that McCain is trying to stir up and realize that his campaign is evidence of a politican bankrupt of ideas and leadership qualities.

by gavoter on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 12:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

Good to see. Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina are going to be the three states to watch in November. If we snag them the Republican collapse will be complete and it's a Clinton-style landslide for us.

by Skaje on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 05:49:13 AM EST

I believe IN and VA (none / 0)

are the first 2 states where voting closes on election night, so we should pretty quickly get a sense of where we stand.

If VA is called early for Obama and/or IN is too close to call then it should be a large/landslide win.

If IN is called early for McCain and VA is too close to call it will probably be a nailbiter.

If both are called early for McCain it could be 2004 all over again.

by al1 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 06:54:34 AM EST

Re: I believe IN and VA (none / 0)

Even with IN and Va, McCain needs Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, and Nevada. Several (all) of those are looking good for Obama.

Howard Dean is my go-to guy

by lojasmo on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 07:50:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I believe IN and VA (none / 0)

IN & VA?

VA, maybe ... but part of IN lies in the Central Time Zone. Seems odd that it would close before well over a dozen states that lie entirely in EST.

by Collideascope on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I believe IN and VA (none / 0)

No daylight savings time. They're, for all practical purposes, in the eastern time zone half the year.

When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?

by Jess81 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 03:07:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

Hey Todd, thanks for the list of EV totals from previous elections. Been looking for that....(well not really, to lazy lol)

by beve83 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 12:23:10 PM EST

Re: 338-200 (none / 0)

obama 338-200 is about as good as it's going to get. but we still have a month left. i still predict 273-265 obama.

by tomanderson13 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:32:26 PM EST

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