Karl Rove says Obama is winning the Electoral College

by Beltway Dem, Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:22:19 PM EST

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

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Karl Rove has published an updated map of the Electoral College which shows Obama over the erratic John McCain in the Electoral College 273 to 163.  His map shows 102 electoral votes in toss-up states.  Of course, it take 270 electoral votes to become president.

Rove simply has joined the chorus.  3 Blue Dudes daily updates its list of prognostications from 84 web sites across the Internet; currently 81 sites see an Obama lead; two show a tie; and none predict a lead for the erratic John McCain.  The eleven sites that updated their data yesterday show Obama with an average of 308 electoral votes.  Those same eleven sites see loose cannon McCain with an average of 196 electoral votes.  Five web sites among those eleven include toss-up states; there was an average of 74 electoral votes among the toss-up states yesterday.




Tags: Karl Rove, Barack Obama, John McCain, Electoral College (all tags)

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We should take nothing for granted (2.00 / 5)

I am working this election as if Obama is 10 points behind.

There is no way I want people to get to comfortable with Obama's lead and stop working hard to get him elected.

He needs to be six points ahead in every state to win.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:09:20 PM EST

Re: We should take nothing for granted (2.00 / 2)

Your exactly right. I also believe that when Rove makes a  statement like that ,it's designed to instigate  ( perhaps) some people talking their foot off the gas a bit. If that piece  shit shook my hand I'd count my fingers.
Forget poles and  work the election just like you said.As if Obama is 10 points behind.Sound advice.
by Lodgemannered on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:23:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So you are saying (none / 0)

that the McCain camp has an advantage, because it is so much easier for them to picture themselves 10 points behind? ;-)


Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
by itsthemedia on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 06:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

See my diary from (none / 0)

this morning.


Our long national nightmare is over.
by Beltway Dem on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:46:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We should take nothing for granted (2.00 / 0)

That's the right way to think about it!

Rove's map is much less Obama-friendly than many maps out there - including MyDD's - which is a good thing.  

The last two elections, using both electoral chicanery and smear tactics, the GOP was able to capture the White House by capturing both Florida and Ohio. They could repeat slim victories in these two states with such tactics.  Despite favorable polls we also shouldn't be too optimistic that we'll be able to flip traditionally red states like VA, NC, IN.  

Rove's map does not give Obama any of those Bush states. Obama wins in Rove's map by taking Kerry's states plus flipping IA, NM, and CO, totalling 273.

IA and NM were Gore states, but CO is a tougher nut to crack.

Case in point: today's electoral-vote.com displays CO as red, even though it had been showing it blue for a good while.

So what happens if Obama is only able to flip IA and NM?

Obama 264, McCain 274.

Suppose Obama is only able to flip IA, NM, and NV?

Obama 269, McCain 269

When will I stop being nervous? When we're 10 points ahead in CO or NV.  (And PA!)


Keep it short. DemocraticShortList.com
by Rob in Vermont on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:25:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And here's another reason (2.00 / 1)

to not get cocky based on favorable polling ONE MONTH away from the election: just take a look at this map that electoral-vote.com displayed ONE DAY before the 2004 election.


Keep it short. DemocraticShortList.com
by Rob in Vermont on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, (2.00 / 1)

but that was a 1-3 point race the day before the election.  My hope is that it will be a 7-10 point race going into November 4, 2008.  I think we need to have that to overcome Republican dirty tricks and ballot box stuffing.


Our long national nightmare is over.
by Beltway Dem on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And here's another reason (none / 0)

Also if you look at the pollster they were getting their information from, it was mostly Zogby, who couldn't (apologies to Hollywood Henderson) spell Cat if you spotted him the C and the T.


by JENKINS on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 03:56:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Karl Rove says (2.00 / 3)

That poor, erratic, loose-cannon, crazy old man.


by Bush Bites on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:23:51 PM EST

Re: Karl Rove says Obama is winning... (2.00 / 3)

My neighbors (both the bigot two houses down and the very nice people next door) have recently put some McCain/Palin signs in their yards, so I was pulling out my beaten and bloodied Obama sign from the primaries.  But I was ever so pleased when my dad asked if he could put it in his yard.  I didn't mind, as I have another one coming (no later than Oct. 17th, I'm promised).  After we win this thing, I plan to leave it up as long as legally allowed.  


Torture me once, shame on you; torture me and get away with it, shame on us all.
by freedom78 on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:25:56 PM EST

Re: Karl Rove says Obama is winning... (2.00 / 1)

That was the notice I received, too, when I donated on September 30 to get my yard sign, that it would come the latest on October 17.


Our long national nightmare is over.
by Beltway Dem on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:48:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Karl Rove (2.00 / 1)

I hearby christen Karl Rove "Captain Obvious."


Follow the 2010 election cycle in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
by TheUnknown285 on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:16:56 PM EST

Re: Karl Rove (none / 0)

That isn't what i could call him but you can have at it.


Watching capitalism gun down democracy, It had this funny effect on me I guess
by selfevident on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 04:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Karl Rove (none / 0)

What's wrong with Turd Blossom? That is a perfectly fine name for him. And since it was bestowed by the nick-namer in chief, Rove can hardly complain about it.


Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
by itsthemedia on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 06:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Karl Rove says... (2.00 / 1)

If Karl rove is mentioning this, my first reaction is to ask what his ulterior motive is.  Somehow trying to manage expectations for something else?  Trying to motivate conservatives?  I can't buy that he's being an impartial "journalist".


by geverend on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 04:42:38 PM EST

Re: Karl Rove says... (none / 0)

Alternate Theory: the Republicans don't want the executive branch in this climate of foreign policy and domestic economic disaster. Wait four years and they will be able to take it back, blaming the Democrats for screwing it all up.

It is just time out for the Republicans, their agenda to be continued in the future. Corporations will just maintain their control intact for this period, corporate medical care continues, the military industrial complex will grow, and the wealthy supporters will maintain their advantage by just moving their investments overseas.

Smart, smart, Karl.


by MainStreet on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 06:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Karl Rove says... (none / 0)

Never, ever trust a Republican politician. He is as dangerous as the lying, erratic and indecisive John McCain.


by Jeter on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow (none / 0)

They're calling for an investigation on people donating less than $200?  That's not even enough to buy one shoe for John McCain; I'm not sure what they're hoping to find.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:22:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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