The Bush Economic Black Hole Is Pulling California Under

Even as Congress tries again to pass the behemoth $700 billion Wall Street handout bailout news comes from California of a $7 billion problem that has immediate and massive impact on regular working folks.

According to Reuters:

California may need an emergency loan of up to $7 billion from the federal government within weeks, the Los Angeles Times on Friday quoted Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger as saying in a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

...

On Wednesday, California Treasurer Bill Lockyer said the most populous U.S. state's cash reserves may be exhausted near the end of October, and various state-funded services are at risk of grinding to a halt.

...

In the letter, Schwarzenegger noted California's plans to issue $7 billion in revenue anticipation notes in the coming days to fund short-tern cash needs -- now put in doubt by the crisis in the credit markets.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day and Governator AHnold may actually understand what a dire situation this economic climate is becoming for the states:

"The economic fallout from this national credit crisis continues to drain state tax coffers, making it even more difficult to weather the continuation of frozen credit markets for any length of time."

Sean-Paul Kelley over at The Agonist spells out the implications:

Look, if the States can't function we're all hosed. And the so-called Congressional bailout does nothing to address these issues. It's not even remotely close to a 'clear resolution.' Even Krugman says as much, "Aid to cash-strapped state and local governments, which are slashing spending at precisely the worst moment, is also a priority."

Remember Jefferson County and the City of Vallejo in California? We mentioned them here, as proverbial canaries in the coal mines and where was our government? Pretty much saying, "it's contained."

Here's a question for Paulson and others: how do you contain Armageddon?

More from Paul Krugman:

How bad is it? Normally sober people are sounding apocalyptic. On Thursday, the bond trader and blogger John Jansen declared that current conditions are "the financial equivalent of the Reign of Terror during the French Revolution," while Joel Prakken of Macroeconomic Advisers says that the economy seems to be on "the edge of the abyss."

As Congress and the President argue over exactly how many zeroes to add to the Wall Street bailout, California teeters on the brink.

If "across the board bailouts" are going to be the safe bet with the current leadership then lets make sure we apply this standard across the board. Because I don't trust Bush and Paulson not to gamble that California can be allowed to fail too. And Paulson's bets have been going bad lately:

The wave of bad news began on Sept. 14. Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary, thought he could get away with letting Lehman Brothers, the investment bank, fail; he was wrong.

For a fifth of the cost of the Bear Stearns bailout, a tenth of the cost of the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout, and one one hundredth of the cost of the Wall Street bailout, we can keep California state government from going under.

Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, and now California. The Bush economy is turning into a black hole and threatens to suck us all in.



Display:


Re: The Bush Economic Black Hole (2.00 / 1)

This is really frightening and irrational.  State and municipal bonds are incredibly safe investments and they are tax advantaged to boot.

I was watching Krugman on Countdown last night and he does believe this bailout bill will at least put a floor on further damage for now and reduce some of the current irrational behavior.

He said it was a stop gap measure to get us to the next President which (hopefully Obama) who can then come up with a real plan to deal with the problem.

I hope he is right b/c the idea that credit worthy customers like CA can't get short term loans is downright scary.


by jmnyc on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:43:11 AM EST

The NEOCON's Economic Black Hole (none / 0)

re Divesting Pension Funds

California was in the vanguard of states gleefully divesting their teachers' and state employees' pension funds from companies doing business with Iran.  The motive, as Orange County R Ed Royce explained re HR 1400/Kyl Lieberman at the federal level, is to force Iran into bankruptcy so that the Iranian people will riot and overthrow their government.

The divestment from states' pension funds is a movement being driven primarily by AIPAC and its affiliates.

One has to wonder if the same organizations have the same goals in mind for the US -- whether the underlying goal is to bankrupt the US  in order to bring about not a "more perfect union" but a reconfigured, Paul Bremerized Union.  In other words, this has been done before; now it's being done to us, by the same people that conned us into doing it to others.

"Do unto others what you would have others do unto you."

This is getting very scary.


by Jeffersons Bible on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:56:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Huh??? (none / 0)

I don't think the two have anything to do with each other.  Every state as well as many business are all having similar problems to CA.

This is a panic, not a grand conspiracy.


by jmnyc on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:13:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

sometimes (none / 0)

conspiracy theories are not nuts.

think what you want.

panics have causes, and this sort of panic has been deliberately caused before.  the outcomes were not pretty.


by Jeffersons Bible on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:02:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ergo (2.00 / 1)

let's rush to pass something that won't solve the problem.

And be sure to lard it up with pork.


by Paul Goodman on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:44:36 AM EST

Re: Ergo (2.00 / 1)

I'm not for the bailout at all, although I agree with Krugman that the Dems have now wedded themselves to the awful thing and if it doesn't pass there will be hell to pay.
However, doing something to prevent California from going under seems essential.
by Texas Nate on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:54:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Constrict imports (none / 0)

and channel the freed-up money to government coffers?

Or did you mean another bailout?


by Paul Goodman on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bush Economic Black Hole (none / 0)

As California goes so goes the nation!  The Terminator is finally realizing tax cutting and spending lead to bankruptcy.  Bush will be forgotten but the economic black hole will remain and the Party in control will be the Democrats.  People usually aren't very ready or willing to blame a previous administration when they are watching their kids starve.  

All this actually started in 1973 when we didn't learn the value of being 'energy independent'!  The crowning moment was Reagan removing the Solar Panels off the White House roof.  So the cheap oil ride ended earlier this year with oil at almost 150 a barrel.  That was the real breaking point of the economy.  The housing market was in trouble but it was the weight of oil prices that caused this collapse.  The huge transfer of wealth to the oil states sucked all the lquidity out of the system.

California is just the first state the dominoes are falling faster than anyone had imagined.  My advice is don't be trapped in any major city where crime rates will be skyrocketing.  Tighten your belts this is going to be ugly.  


by orionwest on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:55:02 AM EST

Re: The Bush Economic Black Hole (none / 0)

why isn't Saudi Arabia ponying up the cash?  They've got it, haven't they?  We gave it to them, didn't we?

I'll tell you why SA isn't ponying up the cash, and why the Bush admin is in a fever sweat:  Shariia law does banking differently -- Clarion Fund released its ugly DVD "Obsession" around the same time Paulson announced the "full faith and credit" of the US was not worth a bucket of warm spit, and he needed $700 b -- make that $850 billion -- of razzle dazzle money to work a sting--on the American people, because the Middle East was going its own way:

10. How is sharia applied to banking and finance laws?

Islamic banking and finance is a rapidly expanding industry that seeks to harmonize modern business practices and traditional religious norms. Classical sharia prohibits riba, the charging of interest. It also condemns excessive profits and requires Muslims to invest only in ventures that are consistent with Islamic principles; for example, investing in a brewery or casino is forbidden. The Islamic finance industry, with estimated assets of $200 billion to $300 billion, represents a small chunk of the global marketplace, but is "already playing a significant role in the financial systems in the Middle East," said John B. Taylor, U.S. under secretary of the Treasury, in a 2004 address. Some Muslim countries, including Malaysia, are making an effort to issue national bonds that comply with sharia principles. And in 2002, eight Muslim countries--Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Sudan, Bahrain, and Kuwait--launched a new organization, the Services Board Islamic Financial, to set common standards for Islamic banking.

 


by Jeffersons Bible on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bush Economic Black Hole (none / 0)

Crap, this can threaten my employment. Now I AM scred.


by RandyMI on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:18:35 PM EST

From AIG to California? (none / 0)

The Federal Reserve bailed out AIG. Congress is now bailing out Wall Street. Will Bush now be willing to bail out California? I don't know. On one hand, Republicans only bail out the very wealthy. Bailing out California would help too many poor people. On the other hand, California does have a Republican governor. Back in 2005, the Republicans were willing to bail out Mississippi but not Louisiana, because Louisiana had a Democratic governor.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:38:16 PM EST

Reign of Terror (none / 0)

Bad as the French Revolution?

The guy quoted as making the comparison is described as a bond trader.  I would think that the fact that he hasn't been guillotined (yet) is a pretty good indicator that we have some ways to go down this path before things are as bad as the Reign of Terror.  Or, to be open-minded, as good as the Reign of Terror.


the way up and the way down are one and the same
by gtomkins on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:51:24 PM EST

Just when you think they can't top themselves... (none / 0)

The hand President Obama a bigger anchor then they handed President Clinton.

It's our lot in life democrats, Republicans trash the place, we clean it up...

Then, they turn on us, cause it takes discipline and cost to make things better...

And, the next generation of Snake Oil Salesmen, guys like Eric Cantor, will sell us down the river with the same old Free Market BS.....

Hopefully this time, we get 4 terms before they turn on us...


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:58:01 PM EST

Cash Crunch (none / 0)

California isn't "going under," it just needs to borrow some short-term cash that is normally easily available but now is not.  The market is so insanely overreactive and bipolar -- three years ago it would happily loan money to anyone for anything, now it won't loan money to California?  

This grand conspiracy stuff suggests way more competence in the Bush Administration that it has ever had.  It is clearly inept, but that doesn't mean that every bad thing is its fault, either.  The market behavior of focusing almost entirely on short-term profit rather than long-term sensibility -- which more than anything seems to be what got us into this mess -- was already quite in bloom by the end of 2000.


by cat on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:03:56 PM EST

7 billion is only about 7% of CA's tax revenue (2.00 / 1)

Schwarzenegger should simply raise taxes by 7%. Enough fat cats living there, should be no problem. No matter how small the sum is, compared to the bailout - why should the feds pay for those sunny state slackers, whose only real problem is that they don't like to do the one thing that would end their problems: Raising taxes! This is ridiculous.

There are lots of states much poorer than CA. They would love to have the luxury problem of the west coasters. Bailing the easy living, tax allergic fat cats out would be as unpopular as the Wall Street rescue. No way.


No way, no how, no McCain!
by Gray on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:15:45 PM EST

Re: 7 billion is only about 7% of CA's tax revenue (none / 0)

The issue is that tax revenues are not paid monthly but quarterly, semi-annual or annual basis.  CA needs a line of credit to get them to the next influx of funds.  Almost all states do this in certain parts of the year.  Most of the time govts float short term debt (1,3,6 months) to cover these temporary shortfalls.  Usually investors gobble these things up but they are being irrational right now.

If the credit markets don't thaw somewhat soon, CA won't be the only state in this predicament.


by jmnyc on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fair enough (none / 0)

Then the Fed should give CA a credit for six months, under the obligation to raise taxes accordingly to ensure repayment. No free lunch.


No way, no how, no McCain!
by Gray on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fair enough (none / 0)

I am fine with that.  NYC and Chrysler both had to make concessions when they borrowed from the feds 30 yrs ago.  Hopefully, some rationality will return to the credit markets and CA won't have to borrow from the fed govt.


by jmnyc on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 10:36:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Bush Economic Black Hole .... (2.00 / 2)

"we can keep California state government from going under."

As a resident of New Jersey, paying mind-boggling property taxes, I would say let California take care of itself.  Put an emergency surcharge on the CA income tax or property taxes; let the Californians take care of their own problems.  Screw 'em.


by Bob H on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:37:31 PM EST


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