More Indications of McCain's Weakness in Arizona

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 02:56:11 PM EST

I noted yesterday the Democratic polling showing that Barack Obama is nipping at John McCain's heels in his home state of Arizona, and some may have seen that NBC News has moved Arizona from the "likely Republican" category to the more competitive "leans Republican" category. This morning we received further indication of the closeness of the race in Arizona in the form of nonpartisan polling from Rasmussen Reports.

John McCain's lead over Barack Obama is down to just five points in his home state of Arizona. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading 51% to 46%.

[...]

Prior to the latest poll, the smallest lead McCain held in the state was nine percentage points back in June. Last month, McCain led 59% to 38%.

I'll reiterate what I wrote last night: I don't think that it's necessarily prudent for the Obama campaign to shift serious resources into Arizona this late in the game. But when it comes to making the argument about mandates post-election, winning not only in red states but in a red state that is home to the Republican nominee -- or even keeping it much closer than the 11-point spread in the state between George W. Bush and John Kerry in 2004 -- would send a strong signal that the nation, the whole nation, is itching for change.




Tags: AZ-Pres, Arizona, White House 2008, John McCain (all tags)

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What's really going on. (none / 0)

Here's a clear synopsis of thinking on the ground in AZ, courtesy of Americans4Honesty over at political wire.  I think this says it all.

"I just got off the phone with my mom. Big article in the paper a couple days ago about the election. Tucson, where she lives, is heavily Democratic. But the gist of the article is that the demographics of AZ are changing, due to the influx of Hispanic and younger voters. The article says that the state will be changing from a reliable Republican state to a toss-up, not necessarily this election, but definitely in the future.

It also predicts McCain will win AZ, but not by the margins people expect. Also interesting~ 28% of AZ voters now identify themselves as Independent, up from 14% just a couple of years ago.

Bottom line~ McCain will probably take it, but by narrow margins, and it is definitely within the realm of possibility that there will be a blue surprise in the Southwest."


by nzubechukwu on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 03:11:36 PM EST

Re: What's really going on. (none / 0)

The entire Southwest is going to be competetive going forward.  The GOP is turning itself into a fundamentalist religious party which is going to limit its appeal to White voters in the South , the Prairie states and the Mormon states.


by gavoter on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 03:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just a quick visit (none / 0)

Just a little airport tarmac speech and go. If it forces McSame to waste time and money, and he doesn't much of either, to defend the cell towers, it's worth it. What would it take, 1 hour? Do it on the way to Colorado, or Nevada , or New Mexico. Do it Election Day.

We have some House races that would benefit from a late Obama bump. Plus, it sets the stage for the future, and AZ joining CA, CO, NV, and NM for a blue corner to mirror the Blue Northeast.


by meddembob on Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 05:14:01 PM EST


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