MyDD :: The Death List

The Death List

by Todd Beeton, Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:24:03 PM EST

That's the name of an internal GOP memo predicting a rout that, as Paul Bedard puts it, "could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades." While most independent or even Dem target lists are projecting a net gain of at most 28 seats for the Democrats, this GOP memo predicts it'll be more like 34.

The list breaks the races into five tiers: 10 are listed as "Likely Gone", 9 are listed as "Leaning Dem", 22 are listed as "Toss-ups", 15 are listed "Lean Republican" and 11 are "Likely Republican." Only 3 Democratic-held seats are listed as "Hopeful": FL-16 (Tim Mahoney), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski) and TX-22 (Nick Lampson.)

The most likely to fall according to the list are as follows:

NY-13 (Vito Fossella-inc.)
AK-AL (Don Young-inc.)
AZ-01 (Open -- Rick Renzi ret.)
VA-11 (Open -- Tom Davis ret.)
NY-25 (Open -- Jim Walsh ret.)
IL-11 (Open -- Jerry Weller ret.)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney-inc.)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg-inc.)
NV-03 (Jon Porter-inc.)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes-inc.)

I wonder where Marilyn Musgrave of CO-04 and Michele Bachman of MN-06 are on that list because something tells me they hopped a tier or two today: The NRCC has pulled out of both of their races.

Tags: gop, 2008 congressional races (all tags)

Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Death List (none / 0)

Robin Hayes?

Wasn't he that moran that said Liberal hate America, the denied, then when the tape showed up basically got caught dead to rights?

Bury the turkey.

Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:28:27 PM EST

Re: The Death List (none / 0)

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict 38 seats net. And I'm gonna go ahead and say the only Democrat who will fall is Mahoney--Kanjorski will squeak by a hair and retire in 2010. Lampson will probably be taken out in 2010 as well, with probably a few of the 2006 and 2008 freshmen from uber red districts in a slightly more GOP positive environment in 2010.

by need some wood on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:48:27 PM EST

based on polling (none / 0)

IL-11 is completely out of reach for Republicans. Halvorson is up 20 points.

She won't win by that much, probably. But it's a bit of a stretch to tie her to Blagojevich.

The DCCC ran a great ad tying Ozinga, the GOP candidate, to Blagojevich because he led the concrete contractors that made a $10,000 contribution to our esteemed Dem governor. hehe.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:50:39 PM EST

Tim Walberg? Hmmm.... (none / 0)

That would be very good news rund these parts.

by Hesiod Theogeny on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:53:03 PM EST

Re: The Death List (none / 0)

if any party deserves to go down in flames, it's the pugs, backing bush for a candidate and now Sarah for a heart-beat away, not to mention John, who's always wanted to be president but can't say why. Oh, yeah, he's a maverick.

but, is it too soon to recall that we want our guys to do not just a better job of it but a way better job?

We want excellence, competence, experts and professionals and now more hacks, we want accountability, and we want them to keep us informed of what they're up to, why and how.

There is a lot to clean up from the bush mess.

I'm wondering how many pro-bono lawyers are going to help investigate the wrongdoings in our current and not soon enough past administration. It's time to investigate and prosecute. Well, it's over time, but I can wait until January 20.

just say it: Medicare for All

by anna shane on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:54:59 PM EST

Re: The Death List (none / 0)

the republican party has pulled adverts from Bachman's district.

Howard Dean is my go-to guy

by lojasmo on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 08:02:39 PM EST

Re: The Death List (none / 0)

The guillotine isn't too tolerant of mis-steps, is it?

Avoid the word "socialism" when conversing with me, and I'll avoid the term "ignoramus" when responding to you.

by Sumo Vita on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:21:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

kanjorski? (none / 0)

really? Scranton? with Biden on the ticket and Bill and Hillary campaigning there?

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 08:18:06 PM EST

Re: kanjorski? (none / 0)

He'll win in a squeaker but Bartletta is putting up a decent challenge.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 08:36:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: kanjorski? (none / 0)

hmm, i've been to scranton a few times this summer and fall, and really havent seen a bartletta sign. i didnt even know who was running against kanjorski until now.

maybe i'll pay more attention next time i am up (but it will be after the election)

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: kanjorski? (none / 0)

What is wrong with this district? Except for 1 term during the Reagan sweep, this has been a Dem district since the 50s.

Is this district now going right-wing?

by gavoter on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:04:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (none / 0)

Only district where an anti-immigrant xenephobe has a chance. But, my oh my! If these clowns loose 38 seats, it cannot happen to nicer guys. Dems will need to win all the seats they can to protect the majority against a possible anti-Dem wave with an Obama Presidency in 2010 where they will likely loose 30-40 seats!

by Boilermaker on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:47:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I want 60! (none / 0)

What's the good of driving up the score in the House if we don't get a solid 60 in the Senate?

All the good things still get killed in the Senate and in Two & four years we get 'do-nothing' Democrats' from the wingnuts.

by NvDem on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:43:46 PM EST

Re: I want 60! (none / 0)

Dems will need to run up the score in the House to protect the majority against a likely GOP wave in 2010 if Obama is in the WH. Likely losses could be between 30 and 40 seats. By the same token Dems will need to run up the score in the Senate to protect the majority against a 2010 GOP wave. 275 seats in 2008 means 235 seats in 2010 with an Obama Presidency. 60 seats in the Senate in 2008 means 54-55 seats in the Senate in 2010..in both cases Dems preserve the majority.

by Boilermaker on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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