A lot of new numbers today, some of which I have already mentioned, some of which I haven't.

• Pew polling shows Barack Obama leading by a stunning 53 percent to 39 percent margin among likely voters over John McCain. Weighing heavily on these numbers -- and, specifically, weighing down McCain's numbers -- are Sarah Palin's anemic favorable numbers. At present, just 44 percent of the electorate views the Republican Vice Presidential nominee favorably while 49 percent views her unfavorably, significantly down from 54 percent to 32 percent net favorable rating in mid-September. In contrast, Obama's numbers are astronomical, with 66 percent viewing him favorably and just 28 percent viewing him unfavorably.

• Lest you think that Pew's numbers are way off, take a look at the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (.pdf) out within the last hour. Overall, Obama's lead is 52 percent to 42 percent -- not too far off from Pew's numbers. Palin's numbers are actually worse in the NBC/WSJ poll than they are in the Pew poll, with 38 percent viewing her favorably and 47 percent viewing her unfavorably. Obama's numbers are similarly strong as they are in Pew polling, with 58 percent rating him positively and 33 percent rating him negatively.

• The two polls, of course, could both be outliers -- but from the looks of it they aren't. Today's ABC News/Washington Post daily tracker gives Obama a 53 percent to 44 percent lead among likely voters, and today's Gallup tracker (which I have already mentioned today) shows Obama leading 52 percent to 42 percent in its expanded likely voter model.

• Update [2008-10-21 20:31:48 by Jonathan Singer]: A McClatchy/Ipsos poll just out has Obama up 50 percent to 42 percent.
  

This all isn't to say that the time is now to get complacent -- because it's not. Nevertheless, it's also not time to buy into the McCain campaign spin (which, I might add, it seems at least a few in the establishment media are) that the race is clearly tightening.