I'm always interested to see what Public Policy Polling's results are out of North Carolina since a. they're based there and b. they saw an Obama surge in the South Carolina primary before anyone else did. So what do they show in this week's poll? Both Barack Obama and Kay Hagan are surging after a dip in support a week ago.

First Kay Hagan:

Hagan's success, in what Tom Jensen calls "one of the best run [campaigns] in the country this year," is based on her ability to limit Elizabeth Dole's support among registered Democrats.

North Carolina is a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. That means for Republicans to win here they need to take a much bigger chunk of the Democratic vote than Democratic candidates get of the Republican vote. But in this race those figures are nearly equal: Hagan is up 81-12 with Democrats and Dole is up 83-10 with Republicans. If Dole can't peel off more of the other party's voters than that she has virtually no chance of winning.

Jensen attributes some of this to a definite Obama coattails effect.

Next Barack Obama:

Obama is also succeeding in uniting Democrats behind him but the primary reason for Barack Obama's strength in NC: white voters.

In both 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush won about two thirds of white voters here, but Obama is holding John McCain to a 55-39 lead with that group, almost halving the margin by which the GOP won them in the last two elections. McCain will likely need to increase his lead with whites by at least ten points if he's going to win North Carolina.

As of this poll, the Pollster trend estimate has Obama up 3.3% and 538 projects an Obama victory by just 1.1%.

Dean Debham of Public Policy Polling gives his take on what to expect November 4th:

Today is the first time I've truly believed that if there is no major shift in McCain's direction nationally over the next two weeks, Barack Obama really will win North Carolina.

One thing Jensen does not address on the blog is what he believes is responsible for the reversal of what appeared to be a McCain/Dole surge last week. Was it random noise? The result of a recent McCain or Palin visit? Or are we simply just seeing a solidifying of support for Obama and Hagan? I'll be sure to ask them.