is unlike anything anyone's ever put together. He wouldn't have it if he were stuck with public financing and what the state parties could raise for GOTV efforts.

McCain has basically no field in PA. I cannot imagine how he comes from behind to win there. So he would need to overtake Obama in CO, VA, and many states where Obama leads narrowly.

Can McCain do that with dozens of Obama field offices turning out the voters they've spent the past few months identifying? I am skeptical.

I expect Obama to overperform his poll numbers in some key states, especially states like NC and VA where he has a heavy GOTV presence and Kerry did not compete. AA turnout is going to be through the roof in those states.

Did TIPP show much movement in the last two weeks of 04, or are the dynamics pretty much set now, Jerome?

I will say this after being with this site since the beginning, in 2002, and listening to all the poo-pooing during the primary. It is nice to see Jerome acknowledge what is likely going to be reality in two weeks.

That Obama wil receive more votes for President than anyone else in the history of the US and will receive a larger % of the vote than any Democrat since LBJ.

Thanks!

According to CNN breaking news, Powell will say that he is voting for Obama.

Here's the scenarios I can concoct that have McCain winning the Electoral College.

McCain needs to win Ohio. He'll need to flip Minnesota. He needs Florida. And he needs to run the table on these battleground states: Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

But that's still not enough. On top of all these he'd have to flip Colorado or Virginia.

McCain might get lucky on some of this, but the Obama campaign has the resources to fight everywhere.

Obama will probably be able to spend the last week helping Democrats running for key governor races (Washington, Indiana, Missouri & North Carolina) and Senate races (Alaska, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas and Nebraska).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz49wFWgS R8

Flipping states like PA, CO, NM, IA, VA, and even FL might be hard for McCain to do at this point. Most people have made up their minds and/or have cast early ballots. McCain spent the entire summer taking states like VA for granted. His GOTV operations in these states pale in comparison to Obama's, and it's the boots on the ground that gin up enthusiasm and get people to the polls. I also haven't seen any McCain ads, at least not here in northern VA, so his dwindling funds will not be enough to wage a tough fight.  

Of course it's possible that MCain can pull a Royal Flush, much the same way people said in 1988 and 1992 that Dukakis and Bush 1.0 could pull an Inside Straight. But Kerry, Gore, Dole Bush and Dukakis all had one thing in common: A sinlge path to winning, and Gore was the only one who did it (minus the theft).

Every day that passes gives me a stronger sense that VA is almost locked down. Yesterday's bonehead remark about the "real Virginia" by the McCain campaign confirmed it. I would noy be shocked if Obama wins VA and McCain argues that he should get the electoral votes because NOVA doesn't count. LOL

I just hope that everyone gets out and votes...the possibility of voter irregularities and suppression will be diminished with an overwhelming turnout.  The last two elections have been irregular and I for one don't want to see it happen this time.  The polls are looking good...but I'm still nervous.

$150 million dollars.  That number is so unreal... hell I was just hoping he hit $100 mill... and he bested that by 50%.  Guess we know WHY he is buying the network time.

that Iowa was a Bush state in 2004, but otherwise it's an interesting read.

I don't agree with him though that flipping PA is a more likely route to victory for McCain than holding onto the Bush states minus NM and IA. Clearly this was a scenario that the McCain campaign invested heavily in (literally) but the polling suggests that PA has been one of the states with the most dramatic pro-Obama swings in reaction to the economic meltdown - Obama seems to be somewhere between 10 and 15 points ahead now, and I find it very hard to see how McCain can recover a deficit of that magnitude.

So it looks to me as if McCain's only vaguely realistic route to victory is to hold the line in the Bush states. That, though, will be a monumental task. OH, MO and NC I could believe, but NV, FL, CO and VA all look really tough for him.

Meanwhile Politico is reporting that the Obama campaign has bought up advertising in central WV and is sending Biden there this Friday. WV isn't even a second-tier target, so to be making such a big push there so late in the game suggests to me that they are VERY confident - they must be seeing some excellent internal polling in the other swing states, not just in WV.

It's clear now that McCain had little or no bounce from the final debate and remains around 5-7 points behind nationally. Barring a live boy/dead girl level scandal or a major terror attack or other huge event I just can't see anything shaking the race back towards McCain. I'd be very surprised if Obama gets below 300 EV and 360+ looks a very real possibility.

But I thought I'd ask it here as well. What do you make of the numbers in the TIPP poll giving McCain a substantial lead among 18-24 year old voters? What is causing that, and is it affecting their numbers?

In light of McCain's gambling tendencies, instead of a Royal Flush, it's more like 3 consecutive Hard Eights.

What happening with the 18-24 vote in the TIPP polling data? For the last three days it has flipped to pro-McCain. Something's not right.

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com