Tonight was John McCain's last best opportunity to change the direction of the race, and as was the case with the previous three debates -- the two featuring McCain and Barack Obama, as well as the Vice Presidential debate -- the Republican just plum came up short.

As I said during the debate, McCain's mudslinging during the campaign was not an effort to raise the profile of his attacks -- whether on Ayers or ACORN or taxes or Joe the plumber -- it was an effort to get Obama on his heels. McCain needed Obama to have a Michael Dukakis/Bernard Shaw/death penalty-like or Gerald Ford/Poland-like moment -- the type of gaffe that sits with the American people through election day, the type of gaffe that raises serious questions about Obama's ability to be President. That didn't happen. Obama remained cool and, perhaps more importantly, didn't lash back at McCain. These might not have been the most comfortable exchanges for Obama, but he won them because he defended himself deftly and refrained from joining McCain in the gutter.

But if there is a historical precedent for tonight's debate, it was the debate between Al Gore and George W. Bush when, at least according to the post-debate meme embraced by the establishment media, Gore sighed and was generally disrespectful of Bush in the background while the Republican was speaking. McCain seemed plain mean. He was huffing and puffing in the background like he was James Gandolfini in the final season of "The Sopranos." He looked angry and disdainful while Obama was speaking. He even rolled his eyes at the recitation of the situation in Colombia, where labor leaders are assassinated. As Paul Begala put it on CNN, "The reaction shots just killed John McCain." Americans might elect a happy warrior... but a an angry one, the thrust of whose campaign appears to echo Jon Lovitz as Dukakis ("I can't believe I'm losing to this guy"). I'm not sure I buy it, and I'm certainly not convinced that the American people will on November 4.

Those are my thoughts... What did you think?

Update [2008-10-15 22:41:17 by Todd Beeton]:Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews agree: McCain's moment where he appeared to belittle the concept of the health of the mother is "going to kill him." Can't wait til we get that video. I began thinking McCain was winning but in the end Barack has another win. 3 for 3 baby.

Update [2008-10-15 22:45:15 by Todd Beeton]:Uh-oh. McCain's in for a rough night. Just heard Luntz on FoxNews say "this was a good night for Barack Obama" with his focus group behind him but I didn't catch any specifics. More as we get the results.

Update [2008-10-15 23:0:54 by Todd Beeton]:Hillary is on CNN just ripping on McCain for voting 90% of the time with George W. Bush and ripping on Republican policies. "It's going to take a Democratic president" to fix these problems. Again, I love the partisan differentiation that is typical of the Democratic rhetoric. Barack originally wanted a campaign that blurred the parties, hence letting Republicans off the hook for their devastating policies. But he's not getting it.