Public Policy Polling has an excellent analysis of Barack Obama's rising support in the South. Central to their report is a debunking of the conventional wisdom that it's mostly a function of higher than normal expected turnout among African-American voters. On the contrary, Obama's growing support among whites is making the most difference in his newfound strength in the South.

PPP looked at their own polling in Virginia (O+8), North Carolina (O+6) and Florida (O+3) for data. For the purposes of this post, I'm going to focus just on North Carolina.

First let's look at the increased turnout among black voters. In 2004, African-American turnout in North Carolina was 19% and Kerry won them 85-14; this year, PPP projects turnout will rise slightly to 21% and that Obama will win them 92-4. That gives Obama a net overall gain of 5% over Kerry's performance in 2004. But George Bush won the state by 12% 4 years ago, so for Obama to be ahead in North Carolina by 6% he has to have swung North Carolina a full 18 points over how Kerry performed. So where does that 13 extra points come from?

White voters. While PPP projects the white vote in NC will decrease as a percentage of the overall electorate from 78% in 2004 to 76% this year, Obama is doing 16 points better among this demographic than Kerry did (McCain is winning white NC voters 56-38 vs. Bush's 67-33 win in 2004.) PPP calculates this 16 point increase equates to a 13 point overall net gain for Obama.

PPP sums it up:

That's a 13 point reduction of the deficit for the Democrat among white voters compared to 2004. So while Obama's 5% increase from black voters is important, 2/3rds of his improved standing can be attributed to shifts in voting preferences among whites in North Carolina at this point.

It will probably come as little surprise to you what PPP finds is the reason for Obama's surge among the white vote in the South:

-Economy, Economy, Economy. Among white voters in North Carolina who list it as their top issue Obama is actually up 48-46. In Florida Obama has the same 48-46 lead with whites most concerned about the economy. In Virginia it's a 49-46 advantage. Even as Obama continues to trail by a good amount with whites overall in these states, he's winning with them on the issue foremost on voters' minds this year. There's not much doubt the economy is the main factor causing whites who voted Republican for President in 2004 to go Democratic this year. That is the single biggest factor driving his lead in the polls across the country right now.

I highly recommend reading the entire report, which has charts and detailed explorations of all three states.