MyDD :: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement

Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:09:18 PM EST

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	48	42
Gallup	51	41
Rasmussen Reports	50	45
Research 2000/dKos	52	40


Average:	50.25	42.00

Today's Battleground tracker (.pdf) shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 51 percent to 43 percent margin, not too far off from the four daily tracking polls above. In other polling released today or over the weekend, a Fox News poll (.pdf) of registered voters gives Obama a 46 percent to 39 percent lead, a Newsweek poll of registered voters puts Obama up 52 percent to 41 percent, and Washington Post-ABC News polling has Obama ahead 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

Again, looking at individual surveys, there are some indications that the race is moving in one direction or another. However, when you throw all the data into one pot and try to digest as much information as possible, it sure looks like there hasn't been much movement in either direction in nearly two and a half weeks, with Obama holding firm at 50.25 percent, give or take a point, and McCain holding steady at 42.25-42.50 percent, give or take a half point. At some point, presumably, McCain will have to start making a move if he wants to get back in this race, no?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008, Open Thread (all tags)

Permalink :: 17 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (none / 0)

about 3 weeks ago, yeah

by notedgeways on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:10:46 PM EST

Some McCain movement should be expected... (none / 0)

...But I doubt it will last or be significant.

At this point, I'm not only hoping for an Obama victory, but an Obama landslide; crushing their spirits, as kos says.

The debate will be key. Unless McCain has a major turnaround in the debate, I don't see how he will be able to generate much traction, although I see again today he's singing yet another tune. What is it with him? The guy says something different every day.

I feel a number of factors could contribute to some McCain movement:

1. History: Polls have showed a tightening of the polling in the final week.

2. The MSM: The best story for them is the one where there is a story (e.g., a horserace)

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:15:33 PM EST

The POLLS will tighten (2.00 / 0)

I'm not sure the election will...

I think a huge percentage of those new voters are going for the Democrats, so I have always taken the polls with a grain of salt.

And, everytime some talking head wants to fill TV time with a piece on the Bradley effect, I always remember how many millenials were still in strollers with Bradley ran..

If Obama is only 3 points ahead, worry.

5 or more, with the map we are sitting on, Axelrod strategy has paid off.

Oh, and, one more thing.

We should see some folks apoligizing to Dr. Dean on these boards.

He got slammed a lot, I saw people carping a lot about throwing resources at Red States?

So, if Obama carries ND or VA or MO, please come and tell me the 50 state strategy was a bad idea?

Rush Limbaugh, Sara Palin and Joe the Plumber...The Triad of Republican Irrelevancy.

by WashStateBlue on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is there even such a thing as a Bradley Effect? (none / 0)

Interesting article from RCP that says, well, no, there never was a Bradley Effect in the 1982 race.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:49:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MSM: horse race / landslide (2.00 / 0)

Not sure that the MSM's best story is a horse race anymore. Mostly becuase it's going to be wrong!

After the debate I bet they switch to landslide, they can investigate the national realignment, they can write obituaries to the enduring republican majority. It'll be a good story for them.

A little bit "hopey" for some but hey, that's where were going.

by holder on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 03:07:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (none / 0)

JS, you should point out that there is no signs of a comeback, the more we comment on the McCain-Drudge gambit, the more they can't just wait 2 days and try it again

Dream for tomorrow but fight for it today.

by TruthMatters on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:16:40 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (none / 0)

All McCain has left is attacking Obama for being inevitable. He's cast himself the underdog and is going to fight fight fight. I don't think it will do much. Intrade is showing Obama way up, and people like to vote for the winner.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:17:12 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (none / 0)

I really believe that a decent portion of the "undecideds" vote for who they think is going to win. I'm not sure what percentage of the electorate they make up, but it is a factor. Success breeds success.

That is why I thought McCain's retreat in MI was dumb. He could have just wound down and shift resources gradually.

Admitting you are in trouble will only compound your problems. You'd think a party that lives on Happy Talk, be it on the economy or Iraq, would know this.

by nintendofanboy on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 10:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Has Obama taken the foot off the gas? (none / 0)

I think he's not attacking McCain enough; he's in run-out-the-clock mode. The prevent defense and the squib kick approach.

Is the last debate debate going to have a lot of questions on social issues and judicial appointments? It could be tough for Obama to win.

by esconded on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:33:04 PM EST

Re: Has Obama taken the foot off the gas? (none / 0)

Is the last debate debate going to have a lot of questions on social issues and judicial appointments? It could be tough for Obama to win.

Why? Anyone that is STILL voting on Gay Marriage or Abortion or Activist judges is already going to McCain, Palin was the lock there?

Otherwise, IN THIS YEAR, If McCain starts ranting about family values, Obama will explain to him family values means putting food on the table and having a job and a roof over your head.

Esconded, Axelrod and Ploufe have paced this thing perfectly, they have LOTS of action set for the last two weeks, but they are not planning to sit on the ball.

On the other hand, it's McCain that needs touchdowns not field goals.

Except him to throw a few long bombs, and expect some interceptions from the Obama team, with some nice run backs...

Rush Limbaugh, Sara Palin and Joe the Plumber...The Triad of Republican Irrelevancy.

by WashStateBlue on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Has Obama taken the foot off the gas? (none / 0)

I'm not concerned.

The first debate on National Security supposedly favored McCain, but Obama won by all objective measures.

The second debate was in McCain's own favorite town hall format, but Obama won.

Social Issues just aren't over shadowing Real Issues this time around, not with the Economy on the front page.

Each time Obama takes the opportunity to show that he has the competence and demeanor of a leader. His biggest success has to be convincing leaners/undecideds that they can trust him despite the criticisms of his experience, ethnicity, whatever.

by nintendofanboy on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 10:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Reboot" will be hard to make stick (none / 0)

The ABC and Gallup polls are going to be the headliners tonight along with the SurveyUSA poll in Missouri. If McCain doesn't get some really good news in the CNN and Rasmussen swing state polls coming tonight, he's going to have a really hard time making the "comeback" narrative stick.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

by fwiffo3 on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 02:50:38 PM EST

Headline: "McCain wants a do-over!" (none / 0)

If they do have a headline, that's what it should be.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 03:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What's left for McCain? (none / 0)

He blew his "straight talk" reputation with lie after lie after lie in the media and in the public opinion, so that no one takes him seriously any more. He has no economic message. What's left for him other than praying for an external event?

by magster on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 03:06:52 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (2.00 / 0)

You mean where the latest poll showed Obama UP 8 % in West Virginia and that the race in North Dakota is now tied?

by gavoter on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 03:17:44 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (none / 0)

He's between a rock and a hard place--unless the terrain shifts drastically, he's sunk. But he can't shift the terrain by himself anymore, because he's being ridiculed for all of these desperation moves.

It would take a major external event to reshape the race. Even then, I'd wager that Obama is prepared with a response. McCain's best bet is probably to rediscover how to act like a nice guy before the third debate, and hope that Obama shows up drunk.

by epenthesis on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 03:55:04 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Still Not Much Movement (none / 0)

We should all prepare mentally for the inevitable tightening which will occur toward the end. What we all fear is not so much the fate of one man, Obama, but waking up on Nov. 5 to the final confirmation that the American experiment and future have turned into a pile of shit.

by Bob H on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 05:25:22 PM EST

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