as well; so there was movement for Obama in Zogby.  It's a telephone poll now, so it's legitimate or at least more legitimate than the internet polls that he produced.

Is there anyone in the country that truly believes John McCain is going to win now? Even his supporters seem to be shifting from denial into the anger phase of grief.

Meanwhile, Obama keeps moving, keeps pushing, and the more he pushes, the more chances he has of an absolute landslide. Everyone likes a hard worker. At this point, the question becomes what we're going to do after November 5th, and I'm glad to hear that Obama is discussing a stimulus package with House leaders. He doesn't have any time to relax, at least not at first.

This is the main thing that worries me:
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?arti cle=will_the_novemeber_surprise_be_disen franchised_voters

I still remember that sinking feeling I got while sitting in my local Dem office back in 04, hearing about the insanely long lines in Ohio. I can't help but feel that the Obama campaign has got to be prepared for the GOP's voter suppression shenanigans though.

cannot win without stealing a blue state narrative today:

"If we can pull a big vote out of northeastern Pennsylvania for Barack and Joe, there isn't any way they lose Pennsylvania, and if they win Pennsylvania there's no way they lose the White House!"

Of course, she could be saying this to fire people up but she could also be hinting that Obama's lead in Colorado is insurmountable at this point and that's why McCain and Palin are spending a decent amount of time on "offense" (they are both back in PA this Tuesday).

Also interesting - every poll in the RCP average today has at least a 6 point lead.  My prediction since last spring has be a solid 4-6 point win, so if he can maintain this kind of lead it will look very good.  Can't take the foot off the gas, though.  Have to keep working, and get those early votes in.

If Obama has a lead of five or better going into the last debate, McCain will have little choice but to try to upset the race with some Big Drama move.  It will be more obviously desperate than his prior Big Drama moves, but that won't stop the corporate press/media from behaving as if it were sober and serious.  

If there is so much as a one point move up by McCain, the narrative going into the debate will be "McCain closing gap as doubts about Ayers rise."

You can count on the corporate press/media to do anything and everything to make this a closer race.

The one poll showing a tightening is Gallup, but I think an RV sample at this stage is a bit more volatile.

Rasmussen has been really stable for over two weeks now.  Still I'm worried about that final debate Wednesday night.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111064/Gallup -Daily-ObamaMcCain-Gap-Narrows.aspx

This worries me. Not the RV, but the two LV models.

Negative attacks usually work. McCain/Palin has been up to despicable acts against Obama, and I will be shocked if it does not buy them a few points in these polls going forward.

McCain is going to throw as much mud at Obama in this final debate as he can get away with. If Obama emerges unscathed we have a great chance to win.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008 /10/attack-blowback.html

Ok, this is some good news. We will see how the final poll results look after midnight.

I hope I have to eat crow!

Zogby: 48%Obama-44%McCain for release Monday.

This is after a six point difference this morning with Obama holding a 21 point lead among independents.

Something is going on and it scares the hell out of me...

Consider this from the 96 election:

Final results on election day:
Bill Clinton (Democrat)                  47,402,357                 49.24          

Bob Dole (Republican)                    39,198,755                 40.71    

Gallup poll results:

Clinton: 57%  Dole 34% Oct 10-11

Clinton: 51%  Dole 38% Oct 9-10

Not trying to be negative, but realistic. I think there will be a "Bradley effect" come election day, so Obama needs to be up in the final polls about 6-10 points to win this thing.

If a "Good ole white boy" like Clinton was up by 23 points in the Gallup poll at this point in the game and then won by only eight points on election day then if the current Gallup results are even close to being accurate we are in big, big trouble.

RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45%...

"Please read Rassmussen rather than fall for the Drudge headline saying it's such a big deal.

Today was O-51, M-45
In the report is says "This is the seventeenth straight day that Obama's support has stayed in the very narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% "

So basically, not much difference.  The Gallup LV model is a little odd, and the Zogby poll for tomorrow which Drudge says is a big deal is the same margin from Friday.  

There is certainly no state polling showing a trend for McCain.  Unless something drastic happens, things will probably tighten up a bit, but as long as we stay at 49-50% we should be fine."

I read ALL of the polls in high detail every day. I CANNOT STAND MATT DRUDGE, but he usually has accurate info on his website hours before it is officially released, at least as far as polls go.

The new Rasmussen numbers are not too bad as we are still at 50% with a five point lead, but
the two polls that really disturb me are Zogby and Gallup. Zogby had this race starting to open up for Obama and within less than 24 hours Obama loses 2 full points???

Gallup is worrisome because of the 96 race as I mentioned before. McCain sucks but is not the major disaster that was Bob Dole's campaign in 1996.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politi cs/story?id=6017487&page=1

As I responded in another thread, I will eat a pile of crows if this poll pans out on election day.

Tears of joy will be hard to hold back...I could not be more serious.