MyDD :: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama

Zogby polling opens wide for Obama

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:17:30 AM EST

The Zogby release is here on their telephone tracking poll out today:

The rolling telephone tracking poll, including a sample of 1,203 likely voters collected over the previous three 24-hour periods spanning four calendar days - approximately 400 per 24-hour period from Oct. 6-9, 2008 - shows that Obama enjoys a growing lead, now at 4.2 percentage points, up from 3.6 percentage points yesterday. Obama had his first single-day polling above 50%, while McCain polled in the low 40s for the second day in a row.

I looked through the cross-tabs, which are behind the pay firewall, and will pass some of that on here (Zogby, weights party ID by 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26% Independent. Age by 18% 18-29, 15% 30-49, 24% 50-64, and 17% 65+. And 75% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 2% Other. All quite solid).

It's especially with the older voters that Obama has increased his vote margin, trailing by just 44-46 to McCain in the 65+ group; compared with 41-50 just two days ago. I can't imagine worse timing for the Republicans to voice their primal scream over Ayers & ACORN through McCain than when the stock market is crashing. Among "investor class" voters, Obama has went from trailing by a 41-53 margin two days ago, to just 45-48 vs McCain, today.

Obama and McCain are about tied in terms of pulling in partisans, but Obama is winning Independents by a 44-34 margin, which is good, but leaves quite a large amount (22%) of those Zogby polls not yet choosing between the candidates. Just a couple of days ago, Zogby said:

"I don't think Obama has closed the deal yet... Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn't embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.

"The Sunday before the election the dam burst," Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. "That's when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan."

Now voters are wrestling with two senators with opposite resumes - Obama, at 47, the unknown, and the established 72-year-old McCain.

Zogby said he's still hearing from moderates and non-partisan voters - what he calls "the big middle" - who are still shopping for a candidate.

"It still can break one way or the other," Zogby says.

Another couple of days of polls like this though, and Zogby will be showing it moving outside the MOE (also: here's Scott Rasmussen being interviewed on the state of the race).

Also, in the MyDD EV counter today, NC flips, with Obama now having a 48.1-46.9 lead over McCain (average between RCP & Pollster). The VA, NC, FL southeast angle for Obama looks stronger than the OH, MO, IN midwest region now, which is an amazing turnabout.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 42 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

Isn't 38D-36R-26I a really skewed weighting? I would certainly hope, given current conditions, that Democrats would enjoy at least a 4%-5% turnout advantage over Republicans.

by JDWalley on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:32:05 AM EST

Democrats and Republicans (none / 0)

are not tied with one another this year. Weights like these make me think that Gallup and R2K are closer to measuring what's going on better than Zogby is.

Our long national nightmare is over.

by Beltway Dem on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:16:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Battleground has the (2.00 / 1)

race at 48-38 this morning.

Our long national nightmare is over.

by Beltway Dem on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:14:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Battleground has the (2.00 / 2)

Huh - strange that after repeatedly praising them, Jerome would make no mention of that. Must be an oversight...

by sneakers563 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:42:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Battleground has the (none / 0)

Don't be so conspiratorial. The Battleground poll wasn't released when Gerome made his post.

by noop on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:44:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Battleground has the (none / 0)

You're right of course. It's just gotten to the point that I now expect Jerome to cherry-pick his information.

by sneakers563 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:53:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Battleground has the (none / 0)

With leaners they have Obama winning 51-41 and 3% going to third parties. Three percent seems a little high for third parties, but even when you drop them Obama holds his lead at 51-43.

That's just a great set of numbers for Obama across the board.

by noop on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:43:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

Jerome's projections were about this as well... IMHO, he's being EXTREMELY conservative on the turnout.. but to be fair he is using Historical turnout to determine those numbers... I think it will be higher... at least 5% difference...

I was surprised at the 15% for 30-49... doesn't that seem a little low?

by yitbos96bb on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:16:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

Yeah that's off a bit. Repubs should be 33-34. But, with conservative Zogby saying it's this big a gap between the two . . . wow.

Scy

by scytherius on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:19:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby? (2.00 / 1)

Come one. Although, I have to say with McCain behaving so irrationally nowadays, I would not be surprised if Zogby turns out to be correct (which I will put to pure chance).

by ann0nymous on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:45:58 AM EST

Re: Zogby? (none / 0)

Zugby phone polls are actually fairly decent. His reputation gets shot to hell due to the internet polls... its not the polls as much as the fact he trumpets them and they get big coverage from stupid reporters.

by yitbos96bb on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby? (none / 0)

There's a difference between Zogby and Zogby Interactive.

Also, Zogby historically gets more accurate closer to election day. What I think happened in California was that he didn't factor in early voting, which Hillary Clinton cleaned up in.

When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?

by Jess81 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby (none / 0)

The dam has already broken. Has Zogby seen the latest state polls in PA, VA, MI? I think people have clearly made up their minds, now. The economic meltdown has spurred their decision-making in favor of Obama sooner instead of later, aided by Obama's great debate performances and McCain's lousy ones.

by ProfessorReo on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:31:03 AM EST

Nate Silver (none / 0)

at 538 has a diary on persuadables. He sees McCain's "decided against" numbers as roughly comparable to George HW Bush's, Bob Dole's, and John Kerry's.

Our long national nightmare is over.

by Beltway Dem on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:18:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (2.00 / 1)

A Republican polling firm based in NC has Obama up 48% to 43%.

by RandyMI on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:22:40 AM EST

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

Its actually a conservative organization in NC and the poll was done by a republican polling firm in VA. But still awesome none the less.

by democratunc on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Zogby's insistence on weighting by party id is what caused him to be so wrong 4 years ago. He's making the same mistake this year, only know it makes his poll skew more Republican.

by Marylander on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:49:30 AM EST

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

If you adjust the R2000 poll because you think it has faulty party i.d., shouldn't you do the same with Zogby (assuming you believe that there is a difference of more than 2%)? Just saying.

by rfahey22 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:57:41 AM EST

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

Jerome doesn't...

Go back to his article from a few days ago and he had it 38-36 on ID... Who knows if he is right or wrong (I bet wrong on this one)... but he is being consistent.

by yitbos96bb on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:19:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

But has anyone adjusted the polls for the "Bradley effect"? Personally I would be more comforted if the lead was over 5%. The economy is bad but do not estimate the prejudices of people in the USA. I was living in NC before and am living in PA now (since last month) and in all the places outside big cities there is a deep unease about race in this election, which frankly is a shame.

by tarheel74 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:14:43 AM EST

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

There was a huge study saying the Bradley effect doesn't really exist. I can see some truth to that too.

Don't assume a bradley effect... if there is one, I'm betting 1-2% tops... not 5-6%.

More likely if Obama under performs it will be for two reason. Party ID turnout was more in line with Zogby and Jerome's prediction of +2-4% for Dems and Youth and Minority turnout is not what was thought (in other words Obama's GOTV wasn't as strong as we thought.

by yitbos96bb on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:21:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

I wish more people were on the ball. In NC the Obama campaign has a great campaign of GOTV. Here is PA I have registered on the PA for Obama site and have literally begged to be put to use for GOTV or driving people to the polling booths and I am yet to be contacted.

by tarheel74 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:29:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

Why are you doing that online?

Contact the office nearest you

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/p ahome

good luck

by gil44 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:08:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

the bradley effect i likely to be counter balanced by the landline effect: young college age people who support obama 2:1 and don't own landlines.

Being Normal is for the Mediocre.

by Doug Tuttle on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:39:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

It's not just college-age. I and most of my late-twentysomething friends are mobile-only as well. There's no point to having a landline unless you're forced to get one in order to have DSL.

Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.

by mistersite on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:23:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (none / 0)

Pundits on cable news last night were discussing that we may actually see a 'reverse Bradley effect' this time - people who now say they won't vote for Obama will end up doing so when the time comes as the fruits of Republican policy leave an increasingly bitter taste.

by phoenixdreamz on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:02:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate to be the spoiler here (2.00 / 2)

I propose we call that the Yeldarb effect, just because it sounds funny.

Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.

by mistersite on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:24:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How about calling it the Obama effect? (2.00 / 2)

by Hesiod Theogeny on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:17:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

bizarro bradley effect (2.00 / 1)

yeldarb effect is perfect lol

President Barack Obama "get used to it"

by wellinformed on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:20:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (2.00 / 1)

I am proud to report that Florida is starting to flip for Obama in a strong way.

The REPUBLICAN polling outfit Strategic Vision is showing an 8% Obama lead in this state. That is devastating for McCain's chances and outlook, as his firewalls are crumbling.

http://strategicvision.biz/political/flo rida_poll_101008.htm

I believe virtually all polling will be positive for Obama today, showing upwards momentum. That debate really hurt McCain's chances, helped Obama a ton. The debate was a blowout on many levels, even if some pundits insisted that it was a tie.

by devilrays on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:20:20 AM EST

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

I'm curious to see the Troopergate report that was NOT put out by a Palin and its effects on the race. If we are lucky, it not only damages McCain but kills Palin's future chances (She'll always be an idiot... but she has the fake quality W had which resonates with Wingnuts and Low info voters. If she spends another term as Governor and then Senator, then her Resume all of a sudden is a lot more impressive even if she is a moron. Again... we did "elect" Bush.

by yitbos96bb on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:24:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's reality. (none / 0)

If anybody believes Zogby, your in denial. Obama is up in North Carolina. If he is up Jesse Helms country then this election is fucking over. Barring a love-child scenario or found in bed with a white woman. Cut through the B.S please.

by nzubechukwu on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:52:12 AM EST

Re: Here's reality. (2.00 / 1)

There are MANY more registered Democrats in North Carolina than there are Republicans. Same with Florida. It is just that many of them are typically "conservative" Democrats who vote for the GOP in presidential elections and for governor. This is one of those years where the GOP brand is crap, the state economies are in the toilet with the GOP getting the brunt of the blame. I don't expect states like Montana or Nebraska to flip. They have a GOP registered voter advantage. However, states like NC and FL are clearly in play for us this year because there happen to be more Democrats than Republicans in those states, Obama strongly outspends McCain advertising in those states, and the GOP has a trifecta of a damaged brand, correctly assessed economic blame and a general tiredness with seeing Bush in office, which extends to his party mate McCain.

Believe it. States like NC and FL are every bit in play this time as are Virginia and Ohio.

by devilrays on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:28:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

1980 (none / 0)

"The Sunday before the election the dam burst," Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. "That's when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan."

And that showed up in the polls, too - as far as anyone knew on Nov. 1, 1980, the election was going to come down to turnout.

Maybe there's another dam waiting to be burst that would turn this election into a popular-vote landslide, but Obama's already got the sort of edge in the polls that Reagan didn't have until a day or two before the 1980 election.

by RT on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:14:09 AM EST

Re: GWU/Battleground (none / 0)

I believe Jerome considers the GWU/Battleground tracker the "gold standard". Today, it's showing Obama 51, McCain 43. That's a +5 improvement for Obama over yesterday and I believe it's the first time he's cracked 50 in that poll. The other numbers in that poll on issues, who's more negative, fav/unfav, etc. are pretty terrible for McCain-Palin.

by OGLiberal on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:18:46 AM EST

Re: GWU/Battleground (none / 0)

Kos has Battleground at 48-38. Is that a different poll?

by sneakers563 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GWU/Battleground (none / 0)

Different question... the 48-38 is when battleground asked voters who they would vote for without giving anyone names...

When they gave out the names, it became 51-43. What it means is that by 10 points more, people are thinking about Obama as their first choice.

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:15:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's up 10 in your beloved Battleground poll (none / 0)

http://www.tarrance.com/files/GWU-BG-Pol l-charts-10.9.pdf

by Hesiod Theogeny on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:14:53 AM EST

Re: Obama's up 10 in your beloved Battleground (none / 0)

You sound like your pissed about it being so.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 06:01:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

380 to 395 EV for Obama. (none / 0)

Once you add MO, IN, and WV, you are at 380. And if Georgia finally tilts and slides to the left, which is something I'm going to predict out of thin air, that will give Obama 395.

by Dumbo on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:15:59 AM EST

Re: Zogby polling opens wide for Obama (none / 0)

The Obama campaign has apparently dispatched Paul Tewes to handle ground efforts in Florida: he's got access to a plane and close to an unlimited budget.

It looks like they're trying for a knockout. No way does McCain win if he loses Florida: he can even pick off Pennsylvania and it makes no difference.

When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?

by Jess81 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:22:30 PM EST

Zogby is erratic as hell... (none / 0)

I wouldn't be surprised if it showed a McCain lead tomorrow.

I'll keep looking at the overall composite.

by leshrac55 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:59:28 PM EST

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