Tracking Poll Update: Obama's Lead Sits at About 6 Points

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4742
Gallup4844
Rasmussen Reports5145
Research 2000/dKos5141
Average:49.2543.00

As Jerome noted earlier, the Battleground tracker (.pdf) of likely voters has Barack Obama up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Other national polls also have Obama leading John McCain, with ABC News and The Washington Post (.pdf) showing Obama up 50 percent to 46 percent, Time putting Obama up 50 percent to 43 percent, and Pew finding a 49 percent to 43 percent lead for Obama, all among likely voters. If you add these four surveys to the four daily trackers above, Obama's average haul stays at exactly 49.25 percent while McCain's average showing increases slightly to 43.875 percent. In short, across all of the surveys out today Obama is up about 6 points nationally, holding firm at or just below 50 percent.

Additionally, I'd like to note that I heard CNN's John King on the radio moments ago talking about a poll from Florida coming out in about 15 minutes also showing Obama at 51 percent in the state -- suggesting the Quinnipiac poll out today showing Obama above 50 percent in the state was no outlier.



Display:


Latest Time/CNN state polls (2.00 / 3)

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44
by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:14:36 PM EST

Re: Latest Time/CNN state polls (none / 0)

I'm ready to faint.


by RandyMI on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:28:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latest Time/CNN state polls (none / 0)

I never thought MO would come around!

When you consider that 33 states have pretty much voted the same and been determinative for President the last 5 or 6 cycles, is it far-fetched to believe that Obama could end up with somewhere around 400 EV's?


by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:30:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latest Time/CNN state polls (none / 0)

Is this the blowout that Obama's critics said he was supposed to get?


by RandyMI on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:31:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latest Time/CNN state polls (none / 0)

I guess!

If McCain loses the Upper South, he basically has not electoral strategy for victory left....


by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In the space of about 8 hours (none / 0)

Quinnipiac has gone from outlier to coal mine canary to team McCain.

I eagerly await the McCain camp fax blasting another "OUTLIER! OUTLIER!" release.

Perhaps by now, they have a template they can just re-use and plug in the name of the new pollster?


by zonk on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

CNN polls are fantastic (none / 0)

Obama ahead in Florida, Missouri, Virginia, and more.  Virginia is not even close.


New Jersey politics and news
by John DE on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:14:45 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

I love the Missouri numbers too.  I wonder how McCain's cash is holding up.  I know that the GOP still has gobs of cash on hand, but they also have a lot more Senate seats that they now have to defend.   Their latests numbers might have them pouring money into places like Georgia.

Obama's decision to go private financing is really going to pay off in the last few weeks of the campaign.  The fact that less than 5 weeks out McCain is now going to have to spend in former Red states makes it that much less likely that he could flip any Kerry states.


by gavoter on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:34:37 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (2.00 / 1)

That's basically what happened to Dole in 96 -- the party strategists and players more or less gave up and focused the last month on House and Senate races.


by zonk on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:46:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm going with the battleground poll (2.00 / 2)

OK, we are only 2% ahead

SEND MONEY, WORK YOUR RELATIVES, BURN OFFERING CANDLES...PRAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:41:36 PM EST

happy but with sinking feeling (none / 0)

Why do I feel like it is going to be a brutal October for both candidates?

Very happy to see these numbers.  Will be even happier if we see similar numbers a week from now.  At the very least, trend is in the right direction.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:42:14 PM EST

A wounded animal (2.00 / 1)

Why do I feel like it is going to be a brutal October for both candidates?

Because the republicans will NOT go quitely into the night, there are a lot of down ticket Repubs that are terrified of getting caught in the storm.

It is going to get terrifyingly ugly down south and in other places as well. They are wounded animals as the old saying goes...

But, Axelrod knows the dumptruck of sh*t is backing up and about to be dumped in his lap.

Doesn't make it smell any better however.


Support the separation of Church and State: Vote YES on WA R-71!
by WashStateBlue on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:49:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A wounded animal (none / 0)

I agree about Axelrod.  We've seen zero drama out of the Obama camp.  They seem focused and react quickly to the bs.

Seems like McCain camp is still digging a hole for itself ("I never tell a lie, ever, blah blah blah", "Now is not the time for partisanship, now is the time to recognize the Dems screwed everything up"), so I am pretty optimistic.

However, I am waiting for the live footage of McCain ripping Osama Bin Laden's still-beating heart out of his chest cavity while Palin keeps her M-16 trained on the other 50 terrorists they captured.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OVER ALL Great Numbers! (none / 0)

Virginia is so amazing!! Florida is FOR REAL.  Yes!!!  America is finally waking up.  McCain blew it when he chose Palin.  He was probably done any way.


by nzubechukwu on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:47:58 PM EST

My Notes (2.00 / 1)

1. I've been sticking with 291 for Obama but I am taking another look.

2. What's the matter with Flordia (snark)? It's been shifting in Obama's favor ever since the Republican convention. What happened that week to move people?

3. If McCain remains behind later this month, he's going to need a hail-mary state. I would say PA, but it's damn expensive to fully contest. My guess is he'll pull out all the stops in Michigan and Wisconsin.

4. Someone on Daily Kos said he was a teacher in Western NC. He just held a mock election for Weekly Reader I think) there and his students, white and upper-middle class went for Obama, boys AND girls. Are they reflecting their parents or they just think Obama is cool?

5. Will Palin's likely debate win tomorrow night have an impact?

6. Considering how Indiana is teetering on the edge, if Obama wins OH and MI, he'll pull the Hoosier State with them.

7. McCain is reportedly running local ads in Kentucky. It is the Lexington market, so it is not intended for OH, IN or VA.

8. Every day I feel more confident about Virginia.

9. Every day I am less confident about Ohio.

10. Congressional Republicans are toast in November.


by RandyMI on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:51:00 PM EST

Re: My Notes (none / 0)

Against an even minimally skilled campaign, I might still be concerned -- but the campaign has McCain in IOWA!

Iowa has been likely off the boards since summer... yet, McCain was just in Iowa yesterday.

I think McCain has less a chance to hold Iowa than Obama has to flip Georgia.

The McCain firewall has been completely breached at this point... I do not see how he can afford to play offense anywhere.   The smart move for McCain is to make desperate attempt to stem the bleeding and hope to only lose IA and NM.  

The problem is, he needs to hold OH, FL, VA, NC, NV, CO, and IN.   Obama just needs any one of those 7.  We now have reliable polling showing Obama with marginal to substantial leads in 6 out of the 7.  McCain cannot afford time or resources in PA or MI.


by zonk on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Notes (none / 0)

I predict that McCain pulls out of MN, IA and VA before the end of the month.


by RandyMI on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:57:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's where I see the wiggle room (2.00 / 1)

in these polls.  Most, if not all, of the polling firms have already, or will shortly, be switching from a registered voters model to a likely voters model.  Depending on how they weight various groups as 'likely', we may start to see real variation between polling companies.

As for the wiggle room -- GOTV efforts.  If the models are using past youth, AA or Hispanic voter turnout numbers, we can blow past those poll numbers and leave them in the dust.

Everyone get to your local campaign HQ and volunteer to go door to door to remind Democrats to vote.  Offer rides to the polls.  Be armed with how to get to the polling place in that area.

My goal:  I will not rest until every Democrat in my assigned area has cast a ballot in this election.


That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:02:11 PM EST

My only real fear is an October Surprise (none / 0)

I just have a hard time seeing one (short of a Bin Laden reveal,) that would be a game changer and honestly I am not sure that would be game changer either... because nobody would believe McCain had anything to do with it and I don't think it would greatly increase Bush's popularity.  


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:40:29 PM EST

Obama up 9 in WI (none / 0)

From Real Clear Poliics

Strategic Vision will be releasing a poll in Wisconsin tomorrow showing Obama leading McCain by 9 points, 49 to 40, with 2% for other candidates and 9% undecided. The poll was conducted September 22-26.


by RandyMI on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:42:45 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

ARG!!!  ARG!!! ARG!!!

LOL, looks good :)


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:56:27 PM EST


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