With the polls out thus far this week, Obama has pulled ahead in the MyDD EV counter (compiled by latest poll average of RCP, 538 & Pollster) in Ohio and Florida, giving him a 333 - 205 EV lead over McCain.
Keep in mind that the difference between a 269 - 269 tie and a 333 - 205 lead is very slim; with just 4 states where Obama has a slim advantage, all four flipping would revert that lead to a tie:
Ohio, by .6 percent
Florida, by 1.1 percent
New Hampshire, by .7 percent
Virginia, by 1.3 percent
But also note that Obama has 2 other states where he's very close:
North Carolina, behind 1.6 percent
Nevada, behind 1.7 percent
And in 2 more states, Obama is within striking range:
Indiana, behind 2.3 percent
Missouri, behind 3.7 percent
The past three weeks have clobbered McCain's chances in his targeted blue states, of PA, WI, MI, MN, and the red states of IA and NM are also far away in Obama's column. Only in Colorado, has McCain inched a bit closer the past week, and is now trailing Obama by 3.6 percent.
It comes down to McCain having to win every state that's within 2% at the moment, including New Hampshire, for a tie; or win them all w/o NH, and take a state like Colorado, for the win. That shouldn't come off as a huge lead for Obama, because its not, and neither is it insurmountable. These are all red states in 2004, and there's a possibility of conservative fatigue playing out with the polls, if the lack of Republicans being polled doesn't translate into a similar lack of Republicans voting. The polls can be wrong, but that's what we've got, and it shows Obama with the much stronger edge right now.
Update [2008-10-1 13:6:46 by Jerome Armstrong]: As for the national numbers, Peter Feld, This Ain't Over:
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