NH: Diebold influence

When an election shows a huge discrepancy between polls and results, there is a natural opening to ask "Why izzat?"

Of course, one of the solutions is to recount, to make sure that the results are correct.

We can't do that in NH.

From Democracy of New Hampshire:


81% of New Hampshire ballots are counted in secret by a private corporation named Diebold Election Systems (now known as "Premier"). The elections run on these machines are programmed by one company, LHS Associates, based in Methuen, MA. We know nothing about the people programming these machines, and we know even less about LHS Associates. We know even less about the secret vote counting software used to tabulate 81% of our ballots. People like to say "but we use paper ballots! They can always be counted by hand!"

But they're not. They're counted by Diebold. Only a candidate can request a hand recount, and most never do so. And a rigged election can easily become a rigged recount, as we learned in Ohio 2004, where two election officials were convicted of rigging their recount. (Is it just a funny coincidence that Diebold spokesman is named Mr. Riggall?)

We need to get the count right on election night. Right now, nobody in New Hampshire, except the programmers at LHS Associates and Diebold Election Systems, knows if we are getting it right or wrong. Our state officials and representatives know this. They learned all about it when computer security specialists Harri Hursti and Bruce Odell testified before the legislative subcommittee on e-voting in September 2007 (Hursti's testimony is shown in this video). Scientific reports about the vulnerabilities and risks with Diebold optical scanners have been available since 2003.

Click the link to learn more, or just click the BlackBoxVoting.ORG video below.

http://www.democracyfornewhampshire.com/ node/view/5307

We cannot be certain of an election outcome, especially when the outcome is SO UNEXPECTED and DEFIES ALL PRE-ELECTION INFORMATION.

It is ESPECIALLY CONCERNING when EXIT polls disagree with outcomes.  

There is something very stinky in the Granite State.


Poll
Do you trust the results?
No, something wrong here
Yes, odd but understandable

Votes: 7
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


OMG (none / 0)

Unreal.  

Or perhaps the first polling out of NH on Sunday that showed a small Obama bump coming out of Iowa and Clinton and Obama tied at 33 to 33 was the correct number.

Maybe pollsters over adjusted on Mon when they didn't see the 10 point bounce for Obama that they expected to see.

By the way, I was right about one thing I think.  The compressed schedule decreased the impact of an Iowa victory / loss.  If the NH vote was tomorrow or Friday, I bet Obama would have pulled it out.   The press couldn't crank out the Clinton obits fast enough.


by dpANDREWS on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 09:09:04 AM EST

Yeah, many things may be (none / 0)

The influence of UNCOUNTABLE, UNCHECKABLE results makes the outcome unclear.

I don't doubt that Clinton won.  I would feel much much more comfortable if we could check WHY the EXIT polls differ from the results.

I just looked at the exit polls.  They reveal an ASTONISHING FACT.

57 % of DEMS were FEMALE.  57 %.  That is a HUGE HUGE DIFFERENTIAL.

Males: 40% BO, 34 % HC
Females: 29 % BO, 46 % HC

That is such a huge difference.

that probably explains a lot of the polling discrepancy.  NO WAY would any pollster ever predict that 57 % of the voters would be female.  No way.


by dataguy on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 09:21:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wait a min (none / 0)

that's just the pct of females in the exit polls - not the pct voting - probably an indication of sociability and willingness to talk to exit pollster.


by dataguy on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 09:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Exit poll results (none / 0)

BO: .366
HC: .387

These pcts are not to discrepant from actual outcomes.

that suggests that the FEMALE TURNOUT was HUGE.

Ground game got the Clinton supporters to the polls


by dataguy on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 09:28:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And space aliens killed Kennedy (none / 0)


by markjay on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 11:08:22 AM EST

Re: And space aliens killed Kennedy (none / 0)

What's your point?


by dataguy on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 11:27:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH: Diebold influence (none / 0)

I got a better one, it was space aliens that stole this election. You see they travelled 1,000 light years to time their arrival exactly on this day. Why: they just want to screw with us. You know, for kicks.


by moi moi on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 03:16:37 PM EST

Re: NH: Diebold influence (none / 0)

Actaully, it was not space aliens. The Bermuda Triangle was temporarilty transported to New Hampshire for exactly 15 hours yesterday. It caused a complete breakdown of common sense. Kind of like this dairy.


by moi moi on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 03:29:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH: Diebold influence (none / 0)

There is something very stinky in the Granite State.

There is a simpler explanation than Diebold:

When pollsters ask multichoice questions, they almost always use randomly rotated choice-lists, to avoid bias in the response.  

According to this article, NH in previous elections used a similar technique - instead of  printing each ballot with the same order of candidate names (say alphebetical), ballots in different precincts are printed with the names in a different order, since some voters seem to be more likely to pick the first viable, high-profile candidate they see on the list.  According to the article, research shows that a viable, "big-name" candidate can get a boost of 3% just by being listed higher up on the ballot.  New Hampshire did not use that technique for this primary - all precincts had the same ballot order; the result was that Clinton's name happened to be nearer to the top of the ballot, Obama's name nearer to the bottom, on every ballot.


Keep it short. DemocraticShortList.com
by Rob in Vermont on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:18:41 PM EST


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