The Day After: Final Thoughts

The New Hampshire primary is now over, and I am almost caught up on sleep. There will be no more skipping class or homework to attend candidate town halls or journalist forums, something that's become almost routine these last two years. No more law school style sleep schedules, at least until grad school. This editorial cartoon sums up my own feelings, as well as those of several other voters I've talked to today. The turnout was amazing - over half a million votes cast, and 18% of them from youth voters, 5% more than seniors! It really is different being here in person. It's one thing to watch it all on TV, but quite another to actually be surrounded by the cameras, signs, and mayhem. My guess is a politically apathetic citizen could ignore most of it if they tried - you can turn off your TV, decline the street corner camera's interview requests, and avoid all the rallies. But try as you might, you can't get away from the sign wars or the screaming activists unless you take Mike Huckabee's advice: "Be sure you vote tomorrow, unless of course you're not going to vote for me - than take the day off, drive to Massachusetts, enjoy some Maine chowder!"

I criss-crossed the state meeting candidates, journalists, and voters; talk about a college education. I saw firsthand the power of the media: had Richardson, Biden, or even Edwards been treated differently over the past year, this could be a whole different ballgame. I learned the value of retail politics: Meeting and seeing the candidates really does make a difference. If I were anywhere else, my support for Biden would have been real but less enthusiastic, and my post-Iowa choice would have been Edwards, not Obama. I confirmed that water is better for soda for energy and hydration, but learned that Powerade is even better than water. (Gatorade supporters, you're a bunch of Naderites and aren't welcome in my comment sections!)

On a more academic note, the results dumbfounded me. The remaining undecideds were mostly female and must have broken to Clinton; there's no way other way to explain how so many scientific polls could have been so wrong. Perhaps there was a last minute shift of leaners influenced by Clinton's debate performance and emotional moment that came too late for the polls to catch - a Dewey Defeats Truman effect. I still trust properly conducted polls, but something clearly went wrong, and I'll leave it to the experts to debate about what.

Yesterday I posted an interview with the leader of Dartmouth for Obama. To help balance that out, here are interviews with his Richardson and Edwards counterparts, Leonard Lewis and Brice Acree. The Clinton leader is now full-time Clinton staff, and I wasn't sure who else to contact. I was literally walking to the interview with Lewis when I got word about Richardson's exit; Acree doubled as pseudo-staff for the Edwards campaign.

My camera only shoots three minute videos, so Brice and I ran out of time before I could ask him his favorite memory of the primary. His response was classic: "Of the primary day? The half hour I slept!" He added that it was always fun to sit back and watch the Edwards phone bankers, whether it was the guy who talked about his wife's "thunder thighs" or the high school intern who would insist to voters, "Hillary IS corporate America!" Ironically enough, walking to grab some coffee after the interview, Brice and I checked our campus mailboxes, and he found a handwritten letter from a student at St. Olaf urging him to vote for Richardson. The letter was impressive, as the student was using Dartmouth-specific lingo like "blitz" instead of "e-mail." I remember writing those for Dean, but the targeted knowledge was nothing like this Richardson kid's.

As we head to South Carolina, Nevada, and the rest of the country, I want to sound a note of optimism: things are getting better. I have criticism for all four of our candidates, but I have praise for all four, as well. Without Hillary's 1992 efforts, health care might not be on the table today. Thank God Edwards is sticking it to corporate America and giving voice to the majority of the world's citizens. Dennis Kucinich has proven to me that he is a man worth taking seriously, with ideas worth consideration. And where would we be without Obama's voice of reason countering the bitter partisans on cable TV? Even the Republicans give me hope - assuming they don't nominate Ghouliani. No, none of their candidates are as strong as ours, but with expanded Democratic majorities to keep them in check, McCain and Huckabee may just be worthy of our respect, albeit not our votes. Maybe my optimism is a bit much, and I can't blame anyone who calls Dr. Cox their hero, but tonight, I am happy for America. Thanks for indulging me in these local dispatches, and I now happily slink back to my weekend role. Yay justice, and yay democracy!



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Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

On a more academic note, the results dumbfounded me. The remaining undecideds were mostly female and must have broken to Clinton; there's no way other way to explain how so many scientific polls could have been so wrong. Perhaps there was a last minute shift of leaners influenced by Clinton's debate performance and emotional moment that came too late for the polls to catch - a Dewey Defeats Truman effect. I still trust properly conducted polls, but something clearly went wrong, and I'll leave it to the experts to debate about what.

Don't ask me where I read it, but Mark Penn told Clinton early Tuesday that essentially ALL the late undecideds were women. They broke massively for Clinton.

I finally got the Exit Poll data to load. The percentage of women voting increased signficantly from 54% in 2004 to 57% in 2008. Clinton clobbered Obama across the board among every category of women:

White Women: 46%/33%
Non-White Women: 50%/38%

Mothers: 44%/34%
Women without children: 50%/30%

Married Women: 45%/32%
Unmarried Women: 51%/32%

Here's the crux of the problem for Obama and it's something I diaried about months ago.

Clinton's top groups:

Married Women: 45%/32% (33% of voters)
Unmarried Women: 51%/32%  (22% of voters)

Obama's top groups:

Married men: 30%/34% (28% of voters)
Unmarried men: 25%/50%  (16% of voters)

Obama's strongest group is single men and, nationally, they are the least likely voters.

What happened is not unexpected. Clinton has been working on messaging and get-out-the-vote of women since her 2000 race in NY State (Karl Rove called her GOTV operation that year the best he had ever seen). The obvious demographic impact of this effort was blunted by the peculiar nature of Iowa (among other things, the only state other than Mississippi that has never elected a woman to a major office, the public caucus where women can't hide their votes from their husbands and neighbors, the caucus system being inaccessible to many working mothers, etc.).


by hwc on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:00:40 AM EST

A reverse Wilder effect for women? (none / 0)

the public caucus where women can't hide their votes from their husbands and neighbors, the caucus system being inaccessible to many working mothers, etc


One Million Strong --- Join up
by psericks on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 06:25:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

I believe you have totally overvalued the quality and integrity of the polling data, let alone the feeding frenzy of CNBC and their despicable trashing of Hillary and how all of this corrupts elections.

Have you forgotten how Gore was called winner in 2000 before Fox news [with Bush cousin in Fox as a plant] called the election for Bush? The ensuing fiasco in Florida was more than expected.

The "bounce" was automatically added as an assumption, not on hard polling data. And Zogby who is always way off was constantly mentioned.

Oue elective process is being corrupted by the likes of Chris Matthews and the entire news media.
The circus of crazed Hillary hate was akin to the lions and gladiators. An orgy at the colliseum.

The rampant sexism was rancid throughout the media, and hysteria, not hard numbers ruled.

This kind of engineered polling data muddles and harms the whole process. The rest of the mischief is left up to the MSM.


by morris1030 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:22:07 AM EST

Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

This kind of engineered polling data muddles and harms the whole process. The rest of the mischief is left up to the MSM.

The media feeding frenzy and the media-driven polling get caught in a feedback loop, especially after a jolt to the system like Obama's win in Iowa or Clinton's win in New Hampshire.

If you step back a little bit, the New Hampshire numbers are about what you would expect. Clinton's been in the 35% to 40% range there all year. As the other strong candidate, Obama consolidated the 25% he had all along plus an additional 10% of the anybody-but-Hillary vote. The result: a good, close, competitive primary.

Obama would have liked to have leveraged his Iowa bounce into a knock-out punch (will his narrative ever be "hotter" than he was this weekend?), but Hillary's strength with women and mainstream Democrats was too much for that to happen.


by hwc on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 12:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

I'm sure sexism played a large role, but if you look at the methodology of the polls, they weren't something to sneeze it - not just Zogby, but Marist, UNH/CNN/WMUR, Gallup, and others. Remember, there were undecideds, there was post-polling action (the debate, etc), there were leaners, etc. There is room for the polls to matter and for sexism to exist simultaneously. I think the media's effect is more on what the results will actually be than it is on predicting them, for else will people get their news?


Ever heard of a Blue Moose Democrat?
by Nathan Empsall on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 07:56:33 AM EST
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Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

You have been a joy to read. Thanks.


by aiko on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 06:44:32 AM EST

Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

No matter how you look at the candidates, this election is all about reversing course away from the Bush administration's domestic and foreign policy. Sorry to say, fromt he looks of it, the two candidates who least represent "change," are those likely to win the presidential bid: Hillary and McCain.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 07:50:06 AM EST

Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

I actually think Romney and Ghouliani are the closest to Bush on their side, not McCain (except for Iraq - but even there, Romney's closer).


Ever heard of a Blue Moose Democrat?
by Nathan Empsall on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 07:57:28 AM EST
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Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

In a relative world, for liberal Democrats, Hillary is the closest to Bush, the old Republican Lite come on we are getting from her. Who otherwise cares what openly Republican candidates think?


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 10:23:45 AM EST
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Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

There's always the chance, slim as it may be, that we could blow a third election in a row, so my hope is that they will nominate not the easiest candidate to beat, but the one who would make the best  President (or least worst, anyway) if we do indeed biff it.


Ever heard of a Blue Moose Democrat?
by Nathan Empsall on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Day After: Final Thoughts (none / 0)

Needless to say, I believe that the last national polls have McCain beating Hillary. That could change, but when I think back, like yourself, to the 2004 election, I too have my doubts. The Republicans seem to find a way. Clinton got in with Perot's help, I think, and were it not for him, that era would never have occurred.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 06:00:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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