I don't think I'll ever look at a poll quite the same way, after those New Hampshire results. There are a couple of important skeptical lessons to view polls through: don't discount the last day trend in a tracking poll, don't trust weekend polling, and don't buy into conventional wisdom; but there was something beyond the polls that we all learned.
I felt like the outside looking in all last week, as I kept saying that the democratic nomination wasn't over, again and again, and the hype said the opposite.
Many of you now see the same thing: three very strong national candidacies that are self-funded and have the ability to confront and defeat whatever mass media narrative is cast against their campaigns. Instead of a media-driven coronation that's over-hyped by the supporters of one candidate who got a few delegates in one state, we will have a long protracted battle in which all the delegates need to the win nomination are what's going to matter. That's a very good thing.
We've too often had a scenario, egged on by the centrist punditry class, that has anointed itself as the decider of partisan nominations in the past. IA and NH represent 1% of the population, and happen to be first in the nominating process, but why should that be the end, rather than just the beginning?
There was hope against the hype, going into New Hampshire, that it wouldn't be the end in '08; and now we can all see that, at least for this cycle, that beast has been bested. There's also hope it'll never have that power over the nomination process again-- nothing bucks tradition quite like a precedent.
I have nothing against IA and NH going first. In fact, I love the tradition and process those two states go through in voting. I would not change that at all; but the other 48 states count too.
On to the delegate count after NH, a feature you'll see a lot of around here in the coming months, and always available on the right hand side, in widgets (revamped) that can be placed throughout the net:
Democrats
NH Total
Obama 9 25
Clinton 9 24
Edwards 4 19
If that's not a race, then nothing is. Certainly, Obama and Clinton have a monetary edge over Edwards, but don't discount earned media or Edwards having enough funds to compete well enough. All of the post-Iowa national polls have shown Edwards trending up into the 20 percents, and he's viable. There is no frontrunner. I still predict that Clinton will ultimately win the nomination, but I care more about it being a battle in which everyone participates that wants too than I do about the ultimate Democratic nominee.
Michigan comes next, with 156 delegates that will go to the DNC convention under the threat of not being counted. I believe they will be seated and cast their delegates for the nomination. Some of you (many of the same people who erroneously argued that it was over before it wasn't) believe otherwise. And yet, I don't hear those also call for the stripping of IA and NH's delegates for also violating the DNC rules. There's a hypocrisy here that will not stand the scrutiny. All the delegates from IA, NH, MI, and FL, will be counted.
Republicans
NH Total
Romney 4 21
Huckabee 1 14
McCain 7 12
Thompson 8
Paul 4
Hunter 1
Giuliani 1
Despite the ridicule aimed at Romney, the truth is that if he does continue to rack up a bunch of silver medals, and various others place first, he's going to be in the lead for gaining the nomination.
I don't have a crystal ball good enough to see into the muddle that is the GOP nomination this cycle. I am not convinced that McCain can actually win in a primary that doesn't include a strong independent or cross-over vote. It sure looks like it will be a brokered convention.
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