http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-zogby /polling-the-new-hampshire_b_80657.html

http://www.cspan.org/poll.asp?Cat=Issue& amp;Code=Zogby&ShowVidNum=15&Rot _Cat_CD=Zogby&Rot_HT=206&Rot_WD= &ShowVidDays=365&ShowVidDesc=&am p;ArchiveDays=365

Now zogby admits Hillary closed to 2 points on 1/7.

I TRIED TO TELL YOU.

In an earlier diary on 1/7 or 1/8
I told you Hillary closed to 32-36 on 1/7 in Rass.  for some reason people who know polling works started throwing out "statistical bumps" etc.

Here's how you can figure it out. Let's take zogby this time:
1/4  5     6   7
-----------------
32   31   29   29  clinton
28   30   39   42  obama

On a three day tracking poll obama went +2, +7, +3 In order to go only plus 3 that means he lost the last night momentum.

OBAMA
For instance assume: 26 (3rd) 28 (4th) 36 (5th) = 30
                     28 (4th) 36 (5th) 53 (6th) = 39
                     36 (5th) 53 (6th) 37 (7th) = 42

These are the numbers that fit the puzzle to make the most sense: So Zogby actually had Obama's number EXACT ON THE 7TH at 37.

CLINTON
                    34 (3rd)  31 (4th) 28 (5th) =31
(zogby says on his site obama led by 9 points on the 5th)
                    31 (4th)  28 (5th) 28 (6th) =29
                    28 (5th)  28 (6th) 31 (6th) =29

So I think Clinton was at 31.

But that would not have fit the narrative to say last day polling 37 31 obama.

Now Zogby says the last day was Obama +2. I think he was lying. I think it was Obama +6.  They didn't think the bounce could wear off so quickly, so they explained it off
.
Either way it is a swing back to Hillary. THERE IS NO SCENARIO where you can get these tracking numbers and not have a swing back to a closer race.

Remember people vote on 1 day. So what is the point of averaging 3 days if the vote is moving?  

Scott Rasmussen was specifically asked on t.v., any surprises from the last night? He said no, and I yelled at the screen.  He was assuming it was statistical noise.  Zogby was also.  They didn't want to be the odd people out.  Just like the DMR from Iowa, it changed the election. Pollsters like to travel together, and not look foolish like ARG in Iowa.

They didn't believe their numbers.  I'm convinced polling on the 8th would have caught it.  Well the exit polls did.