Yeah, I didn't look at the pics yet... sorry :-(

I'll check them out... cool name either way.

Interestingly enough, I actually just gained some respect for her.  She took the high road and decided not to launch attack ads, according to Politico.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/010 8/7759.html

Going nuclear would be a bad bad thing and I'm glad she had the good sense to not do it.  

If he wins by these numbers I don't see how Florida doesn't start to tighten...

Also, what is the AA population in Florida, Arkansas and other Feb 5 states.  I think he will start pulling a lot of AA supporters now that he has proven viable... I can't help but think that closes the distance in Florida.

Still, I think at this point it's far more realistic to say "Obama will get the Culinary Workers endorsement" than to say "Hillary will win Nevada."

Edwards came out saying basically he is hitching his campaign to Obama's for the time being.  He wants to try and get Hillary to drop out or at least no longer viable so he can engage Obama 1 on 1.  Its a gamble, but if he can't achieve it by Feb 5, it won't matter.. either Obama wins this on that day or Hillary makes a big comeback and takes the big MO and turns then into a marathon gruel session, which appears to be her strategy.  She and Obama both have the cash to go to the Convention... Edwards said he'll stay until then but I don't see how he can without a win soon.

I'm sorry but clearly aren't following NV politics closely if you think Rory Reid has control over what Culinary will do, this week or ever.

You're probably confusing the unsourced story that was reported in the LV Sun a few months ago that SEIU national political director complained to Senator Reid of Rory Reid trying to use county employees contracts as leverage for the endorsement, a move that highly antagonized the local and helped push Clinton out of the running.

I'm not sure what Culinary will do, in that there are multiple moving parts that rarely get noted when discussing their endorsement. One is that all year (I mean 07) UNITE-HERE said they would make a single, national endorsement, and its hard to imagine the national UNITE-HERE leadership endorsing Obama while Edwards is still in the running. But by the same token, if Obama wins Tuesday and it seems like a chance to start nailing shut the coffin on 16 years of DLC Clintonism, its equally hard to imagine UNITE-HERE passing on that chance.

The expectation had been a coordinated endorsement of SEIU, Culinary and UNITE-HERE and that would be a big boost for Obama if he gets it (and would have been an even bigger boost for Edwards if things had gone differently last Thursday), but I'm still not convinced its going to come down as decisively as that.

Finally, for those Clintonistas who for weeks have been setting their hair on fire and screaming "look at the polls" when I wrote that her support here in NV is very soft, I fully agree with Jerome that an Obama victory Tues would make him the overwhelming favorite going into the NV caucus. And the Clinton campaign knows it.

The single most under-reported story of the NV caucus is not the union endorsements but the high degree of animosity among mid- and lower-level activists (ie, the sort who will go to and influence precinct-level caucus meetings) to the arrogance of her campaign would lead to an ABC coalition that, if it solidified behind a single alternative, would beat Clinton solidly.

Her support in NV has been based on three constituencies -- older women who have historically not been activists and even if they do attend are unlikely to be influential at bringing over undecideds, latinos whose support has largely been based on name recognition and brand loyalty, and electeds who didn't want to be left off the bandwagon.

Jerome isn't a tyrant... He only bans for personal attacks on him and even then, it usually seems like a few offenses before he does it.  

Florida is only important in the NARRATIVE if the media makes it important.  The number of Delegates isn't important UNLESS this thing is close... and I just don't think it will be regardless if it is Obama or Clinton.

I think the Media will be focusing on Super Duper Tuesday and not give a lot of coverage to a supposedly Delegateless

That being said, if Obama wins the first 4, I'm not sure Hillary wins Florida.

and id love to, but im not betting with a man who - for no reason - keeps calling me a liar.  Apologize and you can name the terms. If not, no.

thought id heard both, dont know if there are rules.

Sorry world. "Reid ground game" is pretty much an oxymoron; he's a deal-maker and never been involved in that kind of politics. (Not that he hasn't, too his credit, gone out to canvass with the hoi polloi, but Reid has no real understanding of the dynamics of grassroots activists in Clark County.

Hispanic vote is very much up for grabs; Obama got the endorsement of the largest spanish-language paper in the state and much of the Hispanic Democratic caucus is very solidly anti-Clinton.

Finally, AFSCME is not politically very active in the state and in any event the state AFSCME has not been pushing Clinton even to its own members.

Sorry world. "Reid ground game" is pretty much an oxymoron; he's a deal-maker and never been involved in that kind of politics. (Not that he hasn't, too his credit, gone out to canvass with the hoi polloi, but Reid has no real understanding of the dynamics of grassroots activists in Clark County.

Hispanic vote is very much up for grabs; Obama got the endorsement of the largest spanish-language paper in the state and much of the Hispanic Democratic caucus is very solidly anti-Clinton.

Finally, AFSCME is not politically very active in the state and in any event the state AFSCME has not been pushing Clinton even to its own members.

Hey, it's Holden! And he's pretending to have a job again. In NH now, huh? Interesting.  I'd bet ten bucks your in mom's basement, polishing off a Hungry Man turkey dinner and wiping your hands on your dirty sweats.  You're a fraud, and HRC is going down the tubes Holdy...Have a good night sweetheart!

Culinary doesn't use 527s?

im a clintonite you twit. thats where i met her, thats why i got the radio gigs, thats why i later got brought in by chuck and craig. i went to pp cause another clintonite pal was dir of comm there after his boss paul wellstone's plane went down. his name is james t farrel and he is dem party ed in mont and ill be out there for 08 if the media give this nomination to obama.

yes, i saw a helluva lot in those days.  i remember m girlfriend joking about thatt line"and we went to tthe hite House... again",
cause at that time we went there for parties a LOT - heck - even a wedding!  {the only one since nixon - do your research on that}

hell, if i told you the whole truth, youd never believe it, so lets just leave it there.  

But if after today, you continue to call me a liar im going to ask the owner of this site to step in.
This is clearly a personal attack and he said that he would ban those that engaged in them. Your behavior has been quite insulting and uncalled for and since i cant reach you to respond as you deserve for this, also quite cowardly.

So stop.  

Thanks for letting us know.  We are all in this together after the convention and, as you said, there a few twists and turns yet before getting there.

FLA AND MI DELEGATES WILL BE SAT.

of this, there is no doubt.

Too bad she won't win it.  

Come on, folks, don't be ridiculous. The Democratic Party is not going to deny the potential first black President the nomination based on shenanigans over states that violated party rules in scheduling their primaries. Black folks vote 90+% Democratic in every election nationwide. It would be like Bush v. Gore except our own party would be on the side of disenfranchising black voters. There's just no way that they could do that. Just look how quickly Hillary backed off of the Shaheen line of questioning when it became clear that it was seen as somewhat racist. Plus, Howard Dean is the head of the DNC. I don't see him backing down on his own ruling in favor of Hillary over Obama.

No Florida and Michigan only matter in the realm of spin. They will not be counted in deciding the nomination.

But Jerome and lots of others are doing a great job of trying to spin them into relevance, because it's the only realistic chance Hillary has of stopping Obama from winning the nomination. I say good luck. I don't think very many people will buy into it. They'll be small footnotes to the larger narrative set by Iowa, New Hampshire, and to a lesser extent, Nevada and South Carolina.

February 5, of course, could still be huge and if Hillary can make a stand there, she could still win. I don't see it happening though because Obama is already on the ground in 17 of those states, I've got firsthand knowledge of his huge field operation out here in California, if that's any indication.

Well that's the scumbaggiest thing I've read all week.

(And I read RedState.)

And they'd probably desert him for Romney too don't you think? or Thompson?

if  had a million bucks - id bet it.

thompson and rudy backed him in 2000 nd will back him again.

the media will not favor obama over mccain and his one great advantage is gone.

This might be a touchy subject, but do you think some of them were Ralph Nader-type voters? A lot of the rhetoric about corporate influence sounds familiar.

We ended up with more Edwards supporters than I expected to have, but because of the high turnout the number that I would have thought would guarantee 3 delegates left us with just 2:

I was skeptical, but clearly the strategy of focusing on first-time caucus-goers paid off in a big way for Barack Obama.

Turnout in my precinct went from 175 in 2004 to 293 tonight. That was way more than I ever imagined possible.

We had first-timers in our Edwards group, and so did Hillary, and for all I know Richardson and Biden did too. But there's no question that the Obama group had the most first-time caucus-goers.

After the first division into preference groups, we had Obama 86, Edwards 83, Clinton 63, Richardson 28, Biden 24 and Dodd 9. To be viable, candidates needed 44 supporters.

After the second division into preference groups, Edwards had 115, Obama had 103, and Clinton had 72, but unfortunately, the math worked out to 2 delegates for each candidate.

In retrospect, the Edwards and Obama groups would have been better off helping Richardson to be viable. Then the delegates would have been split 2 Edwards, 2 Obama, 1 Clinton and 1 Richardson. But there was no way to know that, and during the realignment of course the Edwards and Obama groups were focused on attracting enough supporters to win that third delegate.

It's very similar to what happened in my precinct in 1988. The delegates split 2-2-2 despite a fairly large difference in size between the largest and the smallest. That's the caucus system for you.

By the way, the Richardson precinct captain confirmed that the campaign was advising people to go to Obama. However, a lot of them came over to Edwards anyway. The Biden precinct captain told me he did not receive any similar instruction from that campaign.

I am still stewing that I couldn't deliver that third delegate for Edwards in my precinct. I did some calculations on Friday and figured out that all we needed was:

4 people from the Clinton group to join us instead, OR

8 people from the Obama group to join us instead, OR

10 people who did not turn out to show up and stand in the Edwards corner.

All of those were very achievable, thinking about just the people I knew personally in the various groups. There were also plenty of people in all the groups I had never met before.

Thinking about the neighbors who told me at various times they supported Edwards, but weren't there when it counted, just kills me.

Nope, they aren't voting for him. He's their dream candidate because he play kumbaya and can be swiftboated so easily. They think they'll dispatch him by the summer.

Genius? Well, I don't know about that. But thanks for the compliment. :)

Heh, that's a good one!

Which blue states will turn red?

Look at general election polling in Iowa - a state Bush won in 2004. Obama destroys the entire GOP field. Why? Because Iowans have seen Obama close up and like him. When people see him, they like him. When they don't know who he is, they think he's some nobody with a weird name. If Obama sows the nomination up by early February, he will have nine months to travel the whole counry and let people in Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Colorado, Arizona and other purplish states who he is.

I live in East Tennessee and I can assure you that Hillary Clinton would get destroyed in this state. John Edwards would not do much better; Tennesseans tend to like free trade more than North Carolinians (Japanese auto plants and few textile mills). The protectionist schtick won't fly here. But optimism will.

Rasmussen's tracking polls only showed Obama moving a point.

If the Insurance companies, their lobbyists, and congressional leaders in their pocket insist on an individual mandate in order to achieve the lower premiums Obama wants, then he will be able to give the right what they want and at the same time be praised by the left.

I think it's been available for quite some time but it has been given more prominence in the new web design.  I think.