One of the more interesting facets of the race for New Hampshire is the impact of Independents, who are able to vote in either the Republican or the Democratic primary on Tuesday. A favorite of Independent voters, John McCain rode their support to a surprisingly strong victory in 2000, as an Al Gore win was a foregone conclusion by the time New Hampshire voted. John McCain has no such luck in 2008. Not only is the Democratic primary still very competitive but Independents' favorite Democrat, Barack Obama, is surging after his win in Iowa.
Look at the internals of the Republican & Democratic ARG polls, you can see that they hold similar appeal among Independent voters, Obama with 49% of Undeclared voters in the Democratic primary and McCain with 44% Undeclared support in the Republican primary. It was widely expected that if Obama did not come out of Iowa strongly, McCain would benefit greatly, but as it is, Obama's surge is showing signs of eating into McCain's lead.
Take the Suffolk University/7 News tracking poll. Looking at the results ranging from the 2-day polling periods of 12/31-1/1 to 1/4-5, you can see that while Obama has risen 13 points, McCain has dropped 5 for a net loss of 12% to Romney (sorry for the quickie formatting I'm about to board a plane...)
Clinton 35 (36, 37, 39, 37)
Obama 33 (29, 25, 23, 20)McCain 27 (26, 25, 29, 32)
Romney 30 (30, 29, 25, 23)
You can see a similar correlation in the Zogby tracking poll although it's less pronounced, as Zogby polls over 4-day periods. On the Democratic side, between the poll taken 12/31-1/3 and the most recent one taken 1/2-1/5, you can see Obama gaining a net 5% over Clinton and McCain losing net 5% to Romney.
Clinton 31 (32, 32)
Obama 30 (28, 26)McCain 31 (32, 34)
Romney 32 (30, 30)
The Republican bloggers last night were convinced McCain is on his way to victory but if Obama continues to rise, that win could be seriously endangered, which would be an excellent fringe benefit of Obama's Iowa win. Last night's debate may very well have halted the exodus of Independents to Barack Obama, whether because Clinton succeeded in questioning Obama's ability to bring change or whether McCain succeeded in further raising doubts about Romney's consistency, but by the time that shift is reflected in the tracking polls, New Hampshire will have already voted.
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