Some people pooh-poohed the results of internal polling from a ballot initiative campaign showing Barack Obama coming on strong in California. But now data from a public pollster, Rasmussen Reports, shows largely the same trend.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow three-percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The survey was conducted in the hours immediately following Florida's Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race.[...]
Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party's liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.
Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.
Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women.
It's important to note that a whole lot of Californians have already voted, so late breaking trends in the state could end up being less pronounced in terms of actual results. Note, for instance, that in Florida, which also has early voting, Obama actually beat Hillary Clinton 53 percent to 47 percent among those deciding in the last month who to vote for but nevertheless lost overall 50 percent to 33 percent.
Nevertheless, most signs are pointing to serious movement by Obama in California (and in Massachusetts, as well, where he's now polling within 6 points). Whether it will be enough to overcome Clinton's advantage, which is compounded by her success at shoring up early support, remains to be seen.
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