Edwards suspended his campaign. He did not drop out. So he still controls his delegates.

No, he never controlled them in the first place. They are free to do what they want. Always have been, always will be. If you disagree, show me the convention rules that say his delegates "are required" to vote for him.

that that few pledged delegates could be decisive.  Anything is possible, of course.

Thanks very much for the post, and very interesting information.

Over at 'Americablog,' John Aravosis ran a poll today after Edwards bowed out of the race to see who his readers would give their votes to now that it's a two-person race.   The Americablog crowd is fairly progressive / left, so it represents that slice of the Democratic electorate.  For what it's worth...

Obama  -  2682

Clinton  -  890

http://www.americablog.com/

None of the delegates out of Iowa are pledged to Edwards.  All the pledged delegates elected at district and state are done through another round of preference groups, where Edwards is unlikely to be viable.

I've got a slightly different read on the Edwards Iowa situation.

At the county conventions the delegates from the precincts who were chosen in January will vote for Presidential preference to determine delegates to Congressional District and state conventions.

Those delegates have a lot of choices about what to do. Since Edwards is only officially "suspended" they could still decide to vote for him and get delegates pledged for him, they could vote for Clinton or Obama, or they could just decide not to show up since their candidate is out. (Don't forget that Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich delegates are up for grabs too). So I think you're basically right that Edwards won't meet the threshold in county and district selection -- but it wouldn't be impossible if his supporters decide to stick it out.

However, I think you're wrong about the idea that he automatically "keeps" his Iowa statewide delegates. Those delegates are chosen at the state convention, when the delegates from the county convention will, once more, vote presidential preference to determine how the state's at large delegates will go. Edwards would have to get 15% at the state convention to get any delegates, and his percentage would determine how many he got. Again, his supporters (if they made it through the county conventions) would have the same choices about what to do. In all likelihood, they'll divide up between Obama and Clinton and impact the final # of delegates they each get.

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The SC delegate selection plan says that:

" If a presidential candidate is no longer a candidate at the time of selection of the At- large delegates, then those At-large slots that would have been allocated to the candidate will be proportionally divided among the remaining preferences entitled to an allocation."

There is no such reference for district level delegates (an interesting internal contradiction)

If Edwards campaign remains "suspended" then presumably his supporters would still get to elect delegates pledged to him. If he withdraws, it is unclear what happens to the CD level delegates, but his at large delegates would be divided 2-1 Obama/ Clinton (based on the % of the primary vote)

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And you're definitely right about NH -- those delegates have already been selected, so they are up for grabs.

In Nevada there are at least 350 county convention delegates who were elected by Edwards supporters, plus an undetermined # of Edwards supporters who were (like me) elected by preference groups of other candidates at the precinct level. I've been trying to figure out if we could form a viable group at the Clark County convention next month to send some Edwards delegates to the state convention.

Obviously those delegates won't impact the nomination but could matter in the platform votes and more importantly in the intra-party score settling that is sure to be a result of the Jan 19 mishigas.

delegate who has already said he is with Obama.  The others in NH have not decided.