I would be very surprised if Obama comes away with a majority of the vote in CA. I don't think he's going to lose by 12 to 20 points like some of the polls said, but I doubt he's going to get more votes than Clinton.

But since this isn't a winner-take-all primary, they'll split the delegates almost 50/50. Obama may once again lose the popular vote but win more delegates like in Nevada.

Any polls coming out today would have been done on Sunday, Monday that should favor him. But you should wait for polls that show the impact of FL and Edwards leaving that wont show up till next Monday best case Sat or Sun.

A one day poll by a nameless firm, whose goal was to poll something else entirely. It's data, but it's not clear if it's information.

Can't we leave the small sample single day polls to openleft? Even the Obama supporters here won't fall for those.

There was a SurveyUSA poll on the 27th (one day only). A much reputable and larger firm, with a MUCH larger sample (888LV)

Here are the results ...

Clinton 49
Obama 38
Edwards    9

I heard on NPR this morning that they way they apportion the delegates could work to Obama's favor, particularly for late voters.  Apparently the way the party apportions delegates is based on a precincts loyalty to the Dem party in prior elections.  Precincts can get between 3-6 delegates.  the Precincts that are largely African American get 6 delegates and those that are Latino get 3-4.  In addition, the districts that are the base of the Democratic leadership (e.g. Pelosi) also get 6 delegates.  I am not sure what all this means except that a close vote could actually favor Obama in delegates if he tends to win in the districts with higher delegates.  What a crazy system!

I agree with the above comment that this poll seems rather dubious. California IS Clinton country and she will win, the margin could be like Florida, espcially with the what? 1M absentee ballots? Plus, she is going to be there with Dianne Feinstein and Antonio Villariogoss and Speaker Nunez.

SHE WILL WIN CALIFORNIA! This poll does not sound right and the all of a sudden 20ish point drops in 3 days? Something doesn't sound right.

An unknown poll from an unknown organization and it becomes serious evidence all of a sudden. Is Clinton going to win CA by 20% no, she never was. Is she going to win by about 5-10% almost certainly. This poll is not going to change my basic opinion.

During a conference call with state reporters, the campaign noted the importance of early voting by mail. Fabian Nunez, speaker of the California Assembly, said more votes will be cast by mail in California than were cast in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina combined. "In some cases, enough votes are gonna be banked [before Feb. 5] to win the contest," Nunez said.

The most recent figures obtained from the California Association of County Election Officials (CACEO) show that 1,132,877 mail-in ballots have been returned, out of the more than 5 million that were requested. But CACEO president Steven Weir estimates that the actual number of returned ballots is already over 2 million. Weir also predicts that 47% of all votes will be cast by mail.

In 2004, just under 3 million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, while 2.1 million votes were cast in the uncontested Republican primary. For that primary, as with this one, there were also ballot initiatives driving some of the turnout. Weir says some of the ballots that have been returned actually indicate no choice for president. "[Some] came out to vote for the props," he said. "But this is being driven by the top of the tickets."

Capitalizing on these early voters was clearly a strategy of the Clinton campaign. "The more votes we can lock in now while she's still leading with double digits, is what some would all an insurance policy," said Luis Vizcaino, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign here.

but I stopped think it was something credible right about here -"poll being done by the anti-Indian-gaming initiative campaign"

If Obama "wins" the debate tomorrow night, and the California media reports it as such, and the California media reports each day from now on, that Obama's poll numbers in California are going up, and the California media reports the fact that virtually every single newspaper in the state has endorsed Obama, Obama might just squeek by with a popular vote win. (Of course, who has the LA Times endorsed?)

Creating a sense of "a growing groundswell for Obama" is Obama's best hope for prevailing in California.

Obama will have a tougher time winning a majority of the delegates in California.  There are an awful lot of Central Valley CD's that would have split their votes between Edwards, Obama and Clinton.  And now, with Edwards out...these CD's will likely go much more strongly toward Clinton, earning her the approximately 20 delegates that would have gone to Edwards.  

Make no mistake about it:  Edwards had strength in the California Central Valley, even earning his one California newspaper endorsement there- the Fresno Bee.  Look for Hillary to pick up some extra delegates there that she would not otherwise have had.  

On the other hand, Edwards dropping out will help Obama to get some more delegates in the SF Bay Area...delegates that would have gone to Edwards.

Clinton would have to be favored to win the popular vote and the delegate counts in California, but it will not be a blowout unless Obama consistently fails to make 30% in lots of Central Valley CD's.  

And if Obama manufactures that groundswell...who knows what could happen? He is going to need some incredible TV ads...

There's no early voting down here but Obama's people can get out the vote and his personal appearances will boost his vote.

No doubt he'll settle for the "consolation prize" of more delegates and a narrow popular vote difference.