MyDD :: Some Post-Caucus Analysis

Some Post-Caucus Analysis

by Todd Beeton, Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:00:31 PM EST

I know, I know, Tim Russert, but he said some interesting stuff...

56% on the Democratic side were first time caucus goers.

And on the whole change vs. experience question, not surprisingly, it was "overwhelmingly for change", which Obama won 51% to 19% (presumably over Clinton.) Obama also won both among men and women. Wow.

And finally, as Mike will no doubt appreciate, Timmeh pays homage to the youth vote:

One last salute to the young people for turning out. In 2004 young voters were about 17% of the model we saw, tonight it's over 20% which is a very significant increase. They really did respond and decide to caucus tonight. The message here in Iowa is "Change, Change, Change." I think it's a real transformation of our politics.

Keith also just revealed that Obama won 32%-31% among Democrats over Clinton.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, Democratic Iowa caucus, change, barack obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 64 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

We won all the internalbut the Experience issue. So off to NH

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:04:02 PM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

yikes, beating clinton by 1% among Dems? This could spell trouble in closed primary states.

by mecarr on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:07:04 PM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Not once it's a two person race, which it will be by the time there are closed primaries. Also, its worth remembering that there are more unaffiliated voters, in a technical sense, than Ds or Rs in MANY many states. But most of them almost always vote for one party or the other. Most independents simply like calling themselves "independent," even though they are de facto party members.

by HSTruman on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Especially when that 1% includes a bunch of second voters. It appears Hillary won the first vote with a plurality and then lost when the second voter came around.

by DaleA on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

yikes, beating clinton by 1% among Dems? This could spell trouble in closed primary states.

by mecarr on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:07:23 PM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Yep, it's showing up in states like CA where Hillary has something like a 20 pt advantage over Obama. He apparently has problems with the hispanic vote there too.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (2.00 / 3)

You may want to save your posting until the next set of polls. You'll save some face that way.

by yitbos96bb on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:41:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Whatever.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:22:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

RIDICULOUS!

by bluedavid on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:34:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Latest survey USA out of CA:
Hispanics 62 Clinton/ 19 Obama

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:21:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Again, are you saying you will not vote for Obama in a General Election? If so, I just don't understand that perspective at all. Obama was correct on Iraq and Edwards and Hillary were wrong. His comments regarding Pakistan were made months ago and obviously would be modified given events on the ground since then. I obviously respect any Democrats right to prefer a different candidate, but the idea that you would defect from the party if that person doesn't win the nomination seems -at the very least - extreme.

by HSTruman on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:07:45 PM EST

Angry Reactions (2.00 / 0)

I think that anyone who believes in a given candidate is frustrated by a loss. As an HRC supporter, it's always been hard here on mydd, where she is so consistently reviled by both Edwards and Obama supporters. It makes the loss hard to swallow when accompanied by a message that HRC does not deserve respect as a real Democrat...whether or not she is one's choice. That trenchant disrespect makes me, at least, feel angry and without a place in Obama's democratic party.

by borlov on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Angry Reactions (none / 0)

She is reviled here, she is reviled by both Left AND Right in the real world. That is why she would make a terrible nominee.

by Oregonian on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Angry Reactions (2.00 / 1)

Hillary has been reviled on here more due to her supporters ON MYDD than anything else. Don't play the martyr.

by yitbos96bb on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:36:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Angry Reactions (none / 0)

You're always welcome when you're ready.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:16:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Angry Reactions (none / 0)

I do not dislike HRC personally. She is not as progressive as I would prefer, but she is a decent, bright, committed Democrat.

What I do dispise is the way that the Clinton machine practices politics. They are much too willing to employ sleazy tactics and take cheap shots. I will not soon forget or forgive the sight of Mark Penn smirking as he said "cocaine, cocaine" on MSNBC. I hate Rove, and I don't think the way to beat Rovian smears is to get good at doing them.

by upper left on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:51:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

but can the son of a Muslim Arab who grew up in Indonesia win the Jewish vote in New York, Ohio, Florida and New Jersey. Especially one who was close to the Palestinian community, and flip flopped on Israel. Attached in a link I found on MYDD

http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article 6619.shtml

by maxstar on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:22:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Only NY according to the polls. He loses NJ, OH and FL.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:24:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

I've seen polls saying the opposite. Nice try though.

by yitbos96bb on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:39:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

I guess you haven't seen the most recent polls then.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

I don't see Obama winning the Florida primary, but he will do better against the Republicans that Hillary would.

I don't know anyone here who supports the Republican Party anymore. Hell, the Republican Party even sent me a mailer asking me to "sign up" as a Republican. That's how desperate they are. However, these angry Florida Republicans, Independents, and Dixiecrats will never vote for Hillary.

They will never vote for Hillary. You can bank on that. It's a no brainer to stick with Obama, if the other states hate Hillary Clinton is much as so many people do in the south.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Do you have your head so far down in the sand that you think Dixiecrats will vote for Obama? Sorry, but that's beyond clueless. And Obama would have to get all the independent vote to make up for losing the Hispanic and Jewish vote in FL.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:32:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

ahhhh but what if he mobilizes the Afro American, youth, and Independents, who historically don't vote? I totally agree that ultra , but mad as hell Republicans will not for Obama. The chilling reality is that there are white-only towns were literally a black person can enter and never come out. However, these people are a dying breed. The not so rabid racists (A difference without a distinction?) will vote for Obama when he brings his message of hope and change. It will resonate and win. The reactionaries are waking up. Count on it, or we will lose Florida in the general.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:53:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Which Republican will the Jewish people and elderly support? They didn't secure aa win for Kerry.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:56:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Out of this Republican field, I think Giuliani would win the most Jewish votes.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:59:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

absolutely. But is he a viable candidate?

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Kerry got the Jewish support but not the Hispanic support.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:22:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Jewish voters went 88% for Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections. We're going to be sticking with the Dems this year no matter who the nominee is.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Perhaps you can enlighten me here but I've read that Kyle Lieberman actually helps Hillary in FL while Obama's stance hurts him. What do you think?

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

yep. My point is that they are not voting Republican. I don't think that they really ticked off ones would even vote for McCain. Obama's message will trump his. But that's me with my head in the sandy beach.

There are some ticked off Republicans for the taking and Hillary won't get them. Maybe Obama won't either but he has a good shot.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

You still haven't dealt with the hispanic factor. Will they sit home? I think those disgruntled Republicans will just sit home and not vote for anyone.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:42:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Now the Hispanic factor is something that I know about.

Cuban Hispanics are different from rest of the group. The real old timers are staunch Republicans. They are disgruntled, but they fully support the Iraq War and will always vote Republican. There have been some indications that some of the young Cubans are changing sides.

Puerto Ricans are strong Democrats, but the Cubans get all the publicity. I'll have to look up how the Dominicans and the other Hispanic nationals vote.

Many long time Republicans in Dade County are finding some resistance where once there was smooth sailing. Hispanics won't stay home, and they won't be such a strong force for the Republicans as in the past.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 07:57:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

In CA Obama loses the Hispanic vote by 42% garnering only 19%. I'm not talking about the Cubans. I know they'll vote for the Republicans.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:03:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Those are Mexicans. I really don't think that you can lump Hispanics together as a voting bloc the way you might do with other groups, but that's my unexpert opinion.

Change is happening. However, I don't know if many Hispanics are ready for an Afro American president. Isn't it ironic? I'll get back to you. It's not like you're so hard to find ;)

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:55:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Anyone who brings up the "Muslim" issue is automatically disqualified as:

A) a religious bigot;
B) incredibly ignorant; or
C) a cheap shot artist.

The fact that Obama has demonstrated some sympathy for the humanitarian plight of Palestinians, but has adopted a realistic, and politically viable, pro Isreal position is hardly grounds for concern.

by upper left on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:01:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

You know what? You're points are probably right about it being a cheap shot but the problem I see is that it's an albatross in today's political climate. In a perfect world it wouldn't matter but we don't live in one.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:18:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

I would not exactly call the Jewish vote a key swing constituency in Ohio.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:03:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

lol

by HSTruman on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:28:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Obama's father was not an Arab, and although he was brought up as a Muslim, he was an atheist by the time he married Obama's mother. Tarring Obama with the Muslim brush has gotten by this time to be old hat smear tactics but calling him an Arab is a new low. I feel I have to defend Obama against these ignorant/malicious boors even though I'm for Edwards!

by Baltimore on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:22:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Ah, OK. Not sure how it makes sense to vote for another republican b/c of the disaster that is the current administration, but do whatever you want. Personally, I'm much more concerned with evaluating candidates judgment than they're purported experience. Good luck voting for McCain for Huckabee though. Hope that works out well for you. I assume that means you're now a neocon, anti-choice, support the "fair tax," and want to privatize social security. That's a whole lot of change simply b/c your preferred candidate didn't win...

by HSTruman on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:31:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

OK, enjoy sitting the election out then!

by HSTruman on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

People like Obama because he is inspirational... not because they'd have a beer with him. Hillary is not experienced and neither is Edwards. So I assume you ONLY supported Biden, Dodd or Richardson.

by yitbos96bb on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:34:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (none / 0)

Oh yes. Hillary, the wise one who was dead wrong on Iraq.

by Pravin on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:52:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (2.00 / 1)

poor Fred Thompson..he did a little too well tonight to be allowed to retire from the field

by cargocult on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:07:52 PM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis From Russert (2.00 / 1)

One could argue its YOU "reliable" Dems who nominated Dukakis, Mondale, etc over the years have helped lead us into this mess.

by yitbos96bb on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:07:56 PM EST

Why Hillary Lost: (2.00 / 2)

Kyl-Lieberman and Mark Penn's influence cost Hillary.

Period.

She got too cute by half sucking up to the AIPACs of the world and triangulating and running a general election campaign (trying to win Florida) prematurely and now may not even be the nominee.

I am not the biggest fan of Obama, but we need to destroy these corpocrats and centrists and Mark Penns and Lee Feinsteins.

She's done. And it was because of Mark Penn and his insistence on her running a general election campaign whilst still in a primary.
Kyl-Lieberman is an example of her looking to win Florida prematurely.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:13:16 PM EST

Re: Why Hillary Lost: (none / 0)

If you believe this stuff then why vote for someone who has movement conservatives as their economic advisers? Sheesh, if you really were hones about that you would be an Edwards supporter.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (2.00 / 3)

Woot! Russert and all the media tools owe us big time. Maybe it's petty of me, but "I told you so."

Youth To Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - buy the book!

Youth to Power

by Mike Connery on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:21:23 PM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (2.00 / 2)

Hillary is in bigger trouble than you might think because the rhetorical pillars of her campaign have been shattered.

Watch Obama's speech - he has a rationale, a storyline for his candidacy that's exciting and inspiring.

Up until tonight, Clinton's storyline was what? - strength and experience, together with inevitability and electability. Ability to work the system to achieve liberal goals. In other words, results.

With tonight's results, Obama was the one who brought about results - and they were stunning, bringing out record numbers, actually turning out the youth vote, and bringing in huge numbers of independents to the Democratic coalition, even winning women by 5 points.

If Clinton sticks with her current narrative, she risks sounding irrelevant. If she scrambles to change it, which is what I suspect they will do, she may tread an even more dangerous path as the media digs its claws in...

by animated on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:39:39 PM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

insightful comment

by bluedavid on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:34:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Obama also won both among men and women.

Yes, in fact the DMR poll showed this, but that was the one out-of-line with all the other polls.

Edwards' 30% today is less than his 32% in Iowa in 2004 by the way.

by Nautilator on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:42:38 PM EST

I'm really happy that Edwards came in second. (none / 0)

A win is a win and second place is second place. I'm looking forward to the next debate. It's going to be special, I can tell.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:36:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Can somebody come (none / 0)

up with a method to calculate hard votes... I imagine Obama won by over 10% in the real numbers rather than delegates, because of high turnout in metro areas

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:43:43 PM EST

wheres Georgep? (2.00 / 2)

nothing like a good old fashioned spin. :-)

by rapcetera on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:53:19 PM EST

Re: wheres Georgep? (none / 0)

There's no spinning this.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:18:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (2.00 / 1)

Final figures:

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.58%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.75%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.47%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.11%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.93%

by Piuma on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:06:21 AM EST

Media Blackout on Edwards and Paul (none / 0)

Huckabee Edwards
outspent 16-1 outspent 6-1
40,000 votes 60,000 votes
1st place Rep 2nd place Dem
25%+ of talk <0.3% of talk
on MSNBC/CNN on MSNBC/CNN (mostly Olberman and Bennet saying negative things about Edwards)

Clinton Paul
$20M Q4 $20M Q4
well below expectations well above expectations
25% of talk <1% of talk
on MSNBC/CNN on MSNBC/CNN

Sometimes, I think political analysts are no more consistent than politicians, and that both make decisions based on their emotions far more than they would care to admit.

I look forward to watching Stewart and Colbert next week when I can finally be educated by political analysts I can trust to think deeply and speak honestly.

by TheWinch on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:22:49 AM EST

Re: Media Blackout on Edwards and Paul (none / 0)

Correction

Edwards got 74,377 votes
Huckabee got 38,605 votes

(100% of Dem precincts reported, 93% of Rep precincts reporting)

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/election08/caucus/rawdemscounties.php
http://data.desmoinesregister.com/election08/caucus/rawgopcounties.php

Stupid lazy pundits.

by TheWinch on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:52:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Care to explain your reasoning?

HRC, JE, and Obama sre largely in agreement on most issues. Most of their differences are stylistic or in terms of their strategies for how to achieve progressive change.

by upper left on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:07:59 AM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Ok, it amazes me that even for the rarified audience of a political blog i've had to state this so many times:

The United States has a two party system.

In a presidential election, not voting for the democratic nominee is the SAME THING as voting for the Republican nominee!!

I hope you come around in time for the GE...

by bluedavid on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:38:16 AM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

Democrats will lose the general election if Obama is their nominee. Once again we are committing harakiri.

Our folks have no sense of reality.

by loser on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:06:18 AM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

what was the percent increase in voter turn out? It would be the ultimate irony if increased voter turnout choose the candidate most doomed to failure. <sigh>

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:28:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

For a taste of how the Beltway media is going to spin the Obama victory into a potentially negative narrative, here's what Walter Shapiro wrote in Salon.com today:
"There will be many attempts in the next few days to define Obama's magnetic appeal...why Iowa turned its love light on a candidate whose grandmother lives in a village in Kenya. It may be a case where emotion...trumps clear-eyed rationality." In other words, watch for the Betway media to focus more critically not on Obama but on his followers. Another more anecdotal view of this from Worm's-eye view, a caucus-goer in Iowa, commenting over at TPM Election Central:
"I also sensed a greater cultural difference between Obama's caucus-goers and those for Edwards, Biden, Dodd and Richardson...Obama's caucus-goers were overwhelmingly young and somewhat counter-cultural (nose-piercings, beanie hats, facial hair, etc.). The other candidates had a broader range of ages and backgrounds among their supporters. In the course of chatting with many non-Obama supporters, I got a strong sense of discomfort from a good number of working-class and middle-aged and older Iowans."

Speak out for the education our children deserve!

by jeffbinnc on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:22:45 AM EST

Re: Some Post-Caucus Analysis (none / 0)

I've seen no comment on how Richardson and Kucinich supporters moving to Obama in a bloc contributed to the final count. The difference between the Obama and Edwards would not seem to be so great otherwise and all the references to new voter turnout and women etc would seem to apply to Edwards as well if not across the board for Dems and not specifically for Obama. Old school Politics and spin fluffing Barak much?

by NMRon on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:58:11 AM EST

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