MyDD :: What a Huge Democratic Turnout Tonight Could Mean In November

What a Huge Democratic Turnout Tonight Could Mean In November

by Todd Beeton, Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:30:32 PM EST

In the even a stopped clock is right twice a day department, Pat Buchanan on Hardball made the real point about the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in Iowa that Jonathan wrote about on Tuesday:

One of the most important things about the turnout is that Democratic turnout could be almost double the Republican turnout, which tells me that Iowa's going Democratic in the general, which is bad news for Republicans because...Iowa's a good swing state...twice the turnout of Democrats as Republicans is bad news for the Republican Party no matter who's nominated.

Chuck Todd took Pat's point and upped the ante on what exactly the enthusiasm being generated on the Democratic side could mean for the party:

Pat said '2 to 1', I was talking to former RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, he's worried it could be as much as 3 to 1. It's not just the fact that Democrats are more enthusiastic, what if the Democratic turnout is boosted by Independents who decide not only do they want to vote Democrat in general elections as they did in 2006, but now they actually want to go out and register to vote as a Democrat to participate in a Democratic caucus here. That's the type of movement from the middle away from the Republicans that has people like Ken Mehlman very scared that 08 could make 06 look like a cakewalk.

Somehow I don't think that's what Tom Vilsack had in mind when he said the following about the Iowa caucuses:

"The caucus is about the party. We want to make it a little more difficult in order to make sure the voters who show up are really committed to the party."

Of course, the fewer Independents that show up tonihgt, the better his candidate, Hillary Clinton, will do; but the more Independents show up, perhaps the better whoever the nominee is does in November, which could in the end be the legacy of Barack Obama whether he wins the nomination or not.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, Iowa caucus, turnout (all tags)

Permalink :: 7 Comments :: Post a Comment

if 50,000 or more independents turn out (2.00 / 1)

to caucus tonight with Democrats, it will be a great sign for our chances in November. I am skeptical, but if Obama wins with that kind of new turnout among independents, he will have earned it.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:29:22 PM EST

Yes and No (2.00 / 1)

I think it depends on why the Independents turn out for him. If they want a democrat, like his policies, but are uncomfortable with partisanship, then I think you're right and Obama has done a remarkable and positive thing. I think it will help even if he's not the nominee because they may stay democrats.

On the other hand, if what has drawn them to Obama isn't a combination of his policy and rhetoric, but just his rhetoric, I think he needs to worry about them deserting him - or the party - in November. If I like a candidate who talks about the social security crisis, the inability to enforce healthcare mandates, etc., I'm voting for John McCain over Obama in 2008, especially after the GOP spends 12 months painting Obama as a liberal.

I think any of the three candidates can win the GE, including Obama, because of the enthusiasm gap. But whether we keep the voters he brings in tonight - and he is clearly going to bring a lot, even if it turns out to be not enough - depends on why they came.

by BDB on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:37:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IA irrational exuberance? (none / 0)

So what does Todd expect the IA turnout to be? Over 200,000. Would he like to go to the stake with that number. Or does he want to be more realistic. If this turns out to be 145,000 or less there's going to be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. As to the wider question of whether Democrats are more energized than Republicans. Duh. Whether that means the Democrats carry IA whoever is the candidate is much more problematic.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:42:15 PM EST

Another thought: how captive we are to MSM. (none / 0)

Todd is busy quoting Andrea Mitchell, Chuck Todd, Pat Buchanan etc. I thought this was new media?

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:44:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What a Huge Democratic Turnout Tonight Could M (none / 0)

From David Yepsen:

The latest Iowa Poll published by this newspaper shows Barack Obama with a handsome 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucusgoers. However, other polls show Clinton only a point or two ahead.

The difference is due, in part, to the fact that 40 percent of the likely Democratic caucusgoers in the Iowa Poll say they are independent voters. Five percent say they're Republicans.

That's just too many independents and Republicans for some to visualize at a Democratic caucus. It's causing much harrumphing among the Democratic camps deflated by the numbers.

And who knows. Maybe they are correct. Maybe people are telling pollsters the acceptable thing, that, "Oh, yes, I'll be there," when, in fact, they'll be parked in front of the tube, watching football.

But maybe it isn't wrong. Maybe we're looking at a big Obama turnout in Iowa. Maybe we're looking at the beginning of an Obama sweep to the nomination and the presidency.

David Yepsen - DMR Brows wrinkle, yet expect to see a record turnout 2 Jan 08

A disgruntled Hillary poster said something along the lines of Ann Seltzer was the most powerful person in politics, and they have a point. But the unusual independent vote predicted isn't just an accident, this is part of Obama's intended constituency. If a closely contested Democratic nomination race and disaffectation with the Republicans is the situation then Obama is well positioned to benefit.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:50:27 PM EST

Shaun:promising 200k and 45% Indie/Repub. (none / 0)

Yes or no will do. Or are you like the rest of us including Yepsen, scratching your head.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shaun:promising 200k and 45% Indie/Repub. (none / 0)

I projected 165-180k in the prediction thread.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:16:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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