MyDD :: Caucus day in Iowa

Caucus day in Iowa

by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:45:36 AM EST

ARG polling has Clinton up by 9 percent, outside the MOE, and DMR has Obama up by 8 pecent, outside the MOE. Zogby finds Obama and Edwards with the momentum, with Obama overtaking Clinton. Edwards has the best final television ads....

I think if you are looking, you can find something that you like that says either of the three candidates will win tonight. One thing that's not been talked about a lot is the social pressure that will happen tonight. This is the part that happens with the 'undecided' voters walk into the caucus room and... look for their friends and community leaders. This was a big deal-maker for Kerry in 2004. It's something a poll cannot measure not predict.

I wouldn't place much in whatever Biden or Richardson tell their supporters about whom to go to for second choice. It just doesn't work that way. If they are not viable, the people already have their second choice in mind, the viable candidates will have representatives there making the pitch for each of their candidates.

The media narrative being expected for Iowa is that Obama is going to win; that Edwards might win; that Clinton is fading-- this might not be what the reporters here are writing but it's what they are saying.

I expect Obama to win, I'd be shocked to see Clinton win, but I'm rooting for Edwards to win.

Last night, hearing John Edwards speak, I came out of there rooting for him to win Iowa-- I want a nomination battle. His speech was so good that I found myself ranking it in the top three of all-time that I've heard delivered, right up there with hearing Jesse Jackson speak in Portland OR during the'88 battle, and Howard Dean's 'I want to know' speech in the CA Dem convention of '03. Edwards was that good.

OK, I am hoping to get to a meeting with desmoinesdem here in a couple of hours, before going to hear Ron Paul, and then getting ready to watch the caucus results.

Tags: 2008 Iowa caucus (all tags)

Permalink :: 29 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Reasonable expectations. But surprises are also likely in this poorly polled contest. No poll seems capable of replicating the next.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:52:21 AM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

I've always thought highly of Edwards, but I find his anti-corporate schtick of 2007-8 a bit OTT. Granted, Dems must end the egregious corporate welfare put in place by Bush, must reduce corporate lobbyist influence through tougher ethics enforcement, and must do something about the malefactors in the healthcare corporations.

But really, America is a capitalist economy, corporations employ most of us and make possible our incredible wealth. To rail against them as the source of everything wrong in our politics is a message that might sell in Iowa, but will not fly against the Republicans.

by Bob H on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:55:19 AM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

I tend to agree. I still have a personal fondness towards Edwards though. I mean...the whole populist schtick is 50% truth, 50% political kubuki show, just like Obama's "hopemongering" schtick is 50% legit and 50% kubuki.

The thing that really throws me off is that Edwards supporters (he's my second choice) act like he's the first person to rail against corporations and the like. Al Gore tried it for about 2 months in 2000...and while I wouldn't call the strategy a failure (since he won), I wouldn't call it an unqualified success either...

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:04:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The fact that corporations employ most of us... (none / 0)

...helps to make Edwards' point. How many people working for corporations view their corporation as good and just? How many view them as greedy and dehumanizing?

The abuses and excesses of those running these corporations are no secret, and the American people have had enough.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:09:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the value of corporations (none / 0)

"But really, America is a capitalist economy, corporations employ most of us and make possible our incredible wealth." Really? America is also a free market economy. And the goal of capitalism is to monopolize markets. That's why we've had to rely on the government to regulate powerful capitalist entities like corporations. That's what Teddy Rooseveldt did. And most Americans do not work for large corporations. Small to medium-sized businesses employ far more Americans than the Fortune 500 does. The belief that our "incredible wealth", which BTW isn't universally enjoyed in this nation, is somehow this amazing gift endowed to us by corporate America is pure mythology.

Speak out for the education our children deserve!

by jeffbinnc on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the value of corporations (none / 0)

Good point - definitely - and I think the above poster would agree with you. Most of the critiques of edwards populism are stylistic (He may turn off people who look towards their employer fondly) rather than substantive.

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the value of corporations (none / 0)

I wish it were just a matter of style vs. substance. Then maybe Edwards would get more positive recognition from the press. For so long, people have been drinking the corporate koolaid that the typical kneejerk response to what Edwards is saying is to push back with some kind of "way it's always been" bromide like Bob H posted. It's testament to Edwards' leadership and character that he is able to overcome this among the audiences who are paying attention to him in the blogosphere and, now, on the campaign tail in Iowa.

Speak out for the education our children deserve!

by jeffbinnc on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:47:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the value of corporations (none / 0)

yeah that's true. And he's unquesionably brought Hillary and Obama to the left.

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (2.00 / 1)

Great to hear that you liked Edwards's speech that much.

And Jerome, thanks for giving me and other partisans a forum during the primary season.

by david mizner on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:56:34 AM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Edwards speech was good.

Even as an Obama supporter, I hope he does well. It would be a healthy debate if it were down to Obama and Edwards.

by IowaCubs on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:56:36 AM EST

Prediction (2.00 / 2)

Zogby comes out with a late day poll showing Clinton moving up.

I firmly believe he changed his assumptions after the DMR poll. He was thinking: If I'm wrong with them, I can't be criticized but so much. If I'm right, I get the credit along with the gold standard.

But by tonight, he'll hedge his bet and call it a 3 way toss-up with "turnout" being the key.

This after supposed showing Hillary at 24 for an avg. which meant she had to be below 22 in the 1 day sample.

1 poll changed the world. DMR and they were wrong in 2004 Iowa GE.

by yellowdem1129 on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:59:26 AM EST

Heh (none / 0)

by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Perhaps you should ask desmoinesdem for some tips on how to write a diary. Zing!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:01:02 PM EST

edwards (2.00 / 1)

Was great last night.

A clinton third place would be the most signifiicant event in primary politics since 1972.

Based on my work on how iowa impacts nh impacts new.hampshire an obama edwards clinton finish would make the nh numbers going into saturday's debate look like this:
Obama 40, clinton 27, edwards 24

I have not thought this through, but on first blush it is possible edwards could beat clinton in nh even if he finished second in iowa.

That would set-up a two way fight in nevada, where edwards has hopes of union support.

The possibility of clinton finishing third in both iowa and nh must now be considered.

by fladem on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:03:41 PM EST

Re: edwards (none / 0)

Good point. I hadn't thought of that.

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:07:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome - (none / 0)

Is there a link to a video or anything? I'd love to see it.

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:06:22 PM EST

Re: Jerome - (none / 0)

I've not seen it online yet

by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome - (none / 0)

Dag. Well stay warm dude. Don't get eaten by a pack of confused/undermedicated Ron Paul supporters!

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 03:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ARG and DMR (none / 0)

One of these pollsters is going to get embarrassed. Zogby is all over the place -he's the Mitt Romney of pollsters.

I still think Hill will pull it out. I like the other guys .... I think the Rupubs are hoping for Obama so they can insinuate all year that he's a closet Muslim -constantly reminding America of his middle name (a technique one of the posters here uses).

by Cleveland John on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:24:14 PM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Final Insider Advantage poll including second-choice preference of non-viable candidates:

Obama 34
Edwards 33
Clinton 32

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion Final_DEM_Iowa_Poll.pdf

by conspiracy on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:44:12 PM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (2.00 / 0)

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/s torylink_13_107.aspx

Towery: "This Democratic poll accounts for the second preferences of caucus participants whose first choices will not make the required 15% threshold after the first votes are tallied.

"Until Wednesday night, our polling of this race has consistently shown John Edwards enjoying a majority of these second-preference choices.

"In my judgment, the Des Moines Register's poll has changed the dynamics of the race. We saw a rapid spike in support for Barack Obama immediately after the Register's poll was released to so much fanfare and acclaim. The second choice preferences in our final poll became an even split between Obama and Edwards.

"There's no doubt in my mind that the Register's poll is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Towery.

"The big story tonight on the Democratic side will be Edwards' strong performance, which isn't reflected in the Register's poll.

"Finally on the Democratic race, I'll add that a sample of all voters in Iowa, which included the demographics of party affiliation - including independents - does not support the concept that the caucuses will be made up of 40% independents. The actual number is lower," he said.

by conspiracy on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

That would be a win for Clinton and a loss for Obama

by world dictator on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:33:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Edward's final ad is terrible. Edwards told this guy's son, "I will fight for your daddy's job" in a really heartfelt and touching way. This is a basis for believing Edwards would make a good president why? T

We are a bunch of intelligent and policy-aware individuals. Do we really have to buy in to this "I feel your pain" nonsense? he ad is contentless sap. he's turned his whole campaign into this kind of parody populist emptiness - "fight the evil corporations," etc. It's really annoying.

by snaktime on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:02:44 PM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

It's a good ad. Much better than a laundry list of policy.

The best ad in 2004 was Ashley's Story, a pro-Bush ad. It was short, and the only content was really that Ashley's mother was killed in the World Trade Center, Bush gave her a hug, and now she believes that Bush cares about her and wants to make her safe. It sounds stupid, but it was enormously successful. I saw a grown woman cry when she saw that ad, and she's a lifelong Democrat.

Join us at Show Me Progress!

by clarkent on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

By and large, I don't think people vote for the "angry" candidate. I think either Obama or Hillary will win tonight, depending on which way the "head says Clinton, heart says Obama" people end up falling.

FWIW, I'm not saying Obama isn't a "head" candidate (he is for me), and that there isn't genuine heartfelt support for Clinton. I just get the sense there is a significant portion of Dems who feel that way.

The only thing that would shock me tonight is if Obama finished third.

Jackson and Dean both gave speeches that Jerome loved and lost the nomination battle. I'm desperately hoping for a three-peat of that!

Whatever the result, I hope that everyone handles themselves with class and dignity. Don't act like sore winner (or loser) Republicans, y'all.

by NC State Dem on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:28:06 PM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Bill clinton is the head candidate.

ZING!!!

Ok please don't trollrate me I love the big dog:)

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:27:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Jerome, everyone says that Edwards is a phenomenal closer. Definitely want to hear that speech. Consider that he spoke after a 36-hour non-stop bus tour with just a few hours sleep. The man is incredible.

by grayslady on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 01:31:20 PM EST

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

Small quibble - "Edwards is a phenomenal closer" is a bit of a vacuous statement. I happen to agree with it in a sense (he's a hell of an attorney and he finished well in '04 and '98) but...I'm not sure how that really applies here.

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucus day in Iowa (none / 0)

"Obama is whatever I say will sound like a repug"

I don't think people outside of the blogosphere are actually picking up on that. And most folks in the blogosphere who are actaully throwing around that charge are rabid partisans for another candidate...

by mcdave on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:26:34 PM EST

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