Goodbye Tom Davis

Please Help Sustain MyDD by Making a Contribution Today

Via Breaking Blue, Not Larry Sabato already had the story. But now The Examiner is on it, too.

Influential Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis will announce his retirement from Congress this week, multiple political sources told The Examiner Monday.

Davis has decided not to seek an eighth term in office, five sources with ties to the Republican congressman or his political allies said. The decision was widely expected after Davis pulled out of a potential U.S. Senate campaign and his wife lost a re-election bid in a Fairfax County district with a similar growing Democratic lean last fall.

The 11th district, which Davis represents, leans about 1 point more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections -- though the outward growth of the DC-area has made the district more and more Democratic-leaning in recent years. In 2005, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Kaine won the 11th 55.7 percent to 42.4 percent (running about 4 points better than he ran statewide), and in 2006, Jim Webb won the district 54.7 percent to 44.2 percent over George Allen (with Webb running about 5 points better than he did statewide). What's more, looking around the country the Democrats already hold six of the 15 districts (40 percent) that lean 1 point towards the GOP, scoring four pickups in such districts in 2006 (Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona, Tim Walz in Minnesota, and John Hall and Mike Arcuri in New York).

Perhaps even more importantly, the Democrats have at least a couple of very good candidates in the district. The Democrats' 2005 Lieutenant Governor nominee Leslie Byrne, who actually preceded Davis in office, is already in the race, and Gerry Connolly, who was reelected last fall as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is raising money for a race as well.

Let's still wait until the end of the week or whenever to hear that (or if) Tom Davis makes it 27 open seats that the House Republicans must defend in 2008 -- including 15 in districts that either lean Democratic or tend to lean 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. But here's to hoping.

Just to add... Byrne carried the district 54.7 percent to 45.2 percent in 2005, running 5.5 percent ahead of her statewide total. Democratic Attorney General nominee Creigh Deeds lost statewide by 323 votes, or 1/100th of a percentage points, but won the 11th district 52.9 percent to 47.0 percent.



Display:


Re: Goodbye Tom Davis (none / 0)

IF Webb is on the ticket with Clinton, I think we can pretty much bank on picking up this seat....


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:28:33 PM EST

Re: Goodbye Tom Davis (none / 0)

This seat should be ours irrespective of who the Presidential candidate is.  This is great news!


by HSTruman on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:38:04 PM EST

Re: Goodbye Tom Davis (none / 0)

Can I just say that this is really the kind of post I miss amidst the whole day-to-day back and forth of Hillary vs. Obama...?


by JFMDC on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:05:23 PM EST

Agree (none / 0)

The blogosphere, for all it's talk about focusing on the grassroots, gets sucked into big races really fast.  It's always nice to see focus on smaller contests.


by SuperDrew on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:02:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

RE: House R Open Seats Does the 27 include MO-9? (none / 0)

St. Louis Post-Dispatch is saying Kenny Hulshof will announce his bid for MO state governor today.  Since you cannot run for two positions at the same time in MO this means his 9th congressional seat will be open.

Unfortunately, this is a heavily R district so don't expect a pick up here.


by marcopolo on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:22:28 PM EST

Re: RE: House R Open Seats Does the 27 include MO- (none / 0)

Here's more on that Hulshof retirement.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RE: House R Open Seats Does the 27 include MO- (none / 0)

Thanks for the information--so Hulshof's seat is included.  Guess I should have searched on the MO-9 tag.   Need to learn how to do the link thing...there is the article in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and also one in Roll Call (that is being cited by the Columbia (MO) Tribune.


by marcopolo on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:49:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Tom Davis (none / 0)

If the Bush administration persists in its refusal to fund the rail line to Dulles, the Republicans don't have a prayer of holding this seat.  This is ground zero for traffic jams.


by BRoss on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:55:14 PM EST

Re: Goodbye Tom Davis (none / 0)

The writing was on the wall after the Virginia Republicans sabotaged his Senate bid (by deciding to hold a convention instead of a primary) and his wife list her state senate seat in November.

While there were a number of things to dislike about Davis, he was/is one of the more reasonable Republicans in Congress. (A low bar, but still.) He worked hard to try to get DC a real vote in Congress, for example.


by OrangeFur on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 04:21:02 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.