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Via Breaking Blue, Not Larry Sabato already had the story. But now The Examiner is on it, too.
Influential Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis will announce his retirement from Congress this week, multiple political sources told The Examiner Monday.Davis has decided not to seek an eighth term in office, five sources with ties to the Republican congressman or his political allies said. The decision was widely expected after Davis pulled out of a potential U.S. Senate campaign and his wife lost a re-election bid in a Fairfax County district with a similar growing Democratic lean last fall.
The 11th district, which Davis represents, leans about 1 point more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections -- though the outward growth of the DC-area has made the district more and more Democratic-leaning in recent years. In 2005, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Kaine won the 11th 55.7 percent to 42.4 percent (running about 4 points better than he ran statewide), and in 2006, Jim Webb won the district 54.7 percent to 44.2 percent over George Allen (with Webb running about 5 points better than he did statewide). What's more, looking around the country the Democrats already hold six of the 15 districts (40 percent) that lean 1 point towards the GOP, scoring four pickups in such districts in 2006 (Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona, Tim Walz in Minnesota, and John Hall and Mike Arcuri in New York).
Perhaps even more importantly, the Democrats have at least a couple of very good candidates in the district. The Democrats' 2005 Lieutenant Governor nominee Leslie Byrne, who actually preceded Davis in office, is already in the race, and Gerry Connolly, who was reelected last fall as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is raising money for a race as well.
Let's still wait until the end of the week or whenever to hear that (or if) Tom Davis makes it 27 open seats that the House Republicans must defend in 2008 -- including 15 in districts that either lean Democratic or tend to lean 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. But here's to hoping.
Just to add... Byrne carried the district 54.7 percent to 45.2 percent in 2005, running 5.5 percent ahead of her statewide total. Democratic Attorney General nominee Creigh Deeds lost statewide by 323 votes, or 1/100th of a percentage points, but won the 11th district 52.9 percent to 47.0 percent.
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