MyDD :: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, But Shrinking

Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, But Shrinking

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:13:49 PM EST

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USA Today and Gallup have released new numbers one week out from the California primaries, the contest that will allocate the greatest number of delegates in 2008.

Candidate	Gallup	Pollster.com
Clinton	47	44.4
Obama	35	30.6
Edwards	10	11.0

Take a look at the trend, courtesy of Pollster.com (click the image to enlarge):

The well-respected Field poll (.pdf) also puts Clinton's lead at 12 points (though with a whole lot more undecideds), though a Rasmussen poll out last week showed Clinton's lead down to 5 points.

As I see it, Clinton is still the significant favorite in California. She has a lot of important support within the state, particularly from leading Hispanic politicians like Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and groups like the United Farm Workers (which was founded by Cesar Chavez), which seemingly puts her in a strong position to rely on the coalition that served her so well in the neighboring state of Nevada, namely women and Hispanics. With this in mind, it's little wonder why the repeated theme in Obama's post South Carolina victory speech was "Yes We Can" -- roughly si se puede in Spanish, or the rallying call of Chavez decades ago -- and that Obama yesterday trotted out the endorsement of Los Angeles Congressman Xavier Becerra, the highest ranking Hispanic in the House. I would not be surprised to see Ted Kennedy in California over the next week likewise trying to peel of Hispanic support from Clinton to Obama.

That said, Clinton does have a double-digit lead still about a week before election day, and one-fifth of California Democrats expected to vote in the Democratic primary have already sent in their ballots, according to Gallup. So I wouldn't put money on Obama to overtake Clinton in California just yet.

Tags: California, California Primary, Democratic Primaries (all tags)

Permalink :: 45 Comments :: Post a Comment

Interesting (none / 0)

I don't think there is any way Obama wins California, but I think there's a chance that he keeps things reasonably close in terms of delegates. That would be a pretty significant accomplishment, given the leads in CA that Clinton has had in the past.

by HSTruman on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:16:26 PM EST

Especially If... (none / 0)

A lot people are speculating about a Gore endorsement before the week's end. Gore did say a while back that he planned to endorse in the primary, I'd imagine that if it's in the works the Obama campaign will try to use Gore as effectively as possible in Tennessee and on both coasts. If it happens, Obama could possibly tie Hillary just about everywhere on February 5th in terms of delegate counts, and probably win outright in a few states.

by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:45:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Intensity (none / 0)

It's mostly the intense supporters of both candidates who send in early ballots. the early poll numbers don't matter as much as you think.

by mcdave on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:20:15 PM EST

Re: Intensity (none / 0)

That sounds like a non sequitur to me.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Another poll. (none / 0)

For goodness sake. Haven't we learned enough from polls. I for one hate polls.

by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:20:17 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lead in California (none / 0)

How accurate have these averages been? I would think that some very inaccurate polls are used along with some credible ones. For right now, I'll take what the field poll says.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:24:06 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, Bu (2.00 / 0)

I would suggest waiting for an ARG poll and then predicting the opposite of whatever they say.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:25:51 PM EST

Hill's a fighter (none / 0)

Hill's going to have to work for this nomination. But like Kanye West says, what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.

by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:32:55 PM EST

Re: Hill's a fighter (none / 0)

Perhaps you saw my story about my colleagues at work who didn't understand Katrina was a racial issue.

I told them what JJ Jr. said about Hillary not crying over Katrina. They were like, "Sounds like he's just questioning the sincerity of her emotion."

No, no, I said, he's implying the same thing Kanye West said about George Bush!

"Who's Kanye West?" they said to me. And these are people my age, too. I work with some extremely out-of-touch folks.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:38:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hill's a fighter (none / 0)

lol

by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hill's a fighter (none / 0)

You work with people who don't know who Kanye West is? Wow, that's amazing. My suburban and rapidly aging parents know who Kanye West is.

by HSTruman on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hill's a fighter (none / 0)

I think my parents do too, and they're still listening to their Judy Collins albums.

However, I like having out-of-touch people around so I can get a genuine read on which political developments matter and which don't.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:47:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hill's a fighter (none / 0)

True, true. The clueless do make for a wonderful political sounding board.

by HSTruman on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:50:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

It looks like she's at 12-14% ahead and they still have Edwards around 10% which I don't see holding up. If you look at CA demographics and unless her coalition collapse I find it to believe she's going to lose CA. All this delegate talk has validity of course but if she carries FL and about 19 on Super Tuesday it's very hard to say this guy is the choice of the party.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:36:23 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

If she carries 19 states on Super Tuesday (unless they are mostly close.) It would be pretty hard for her to lose the nomination. I still believe Florida isn't going to count (we saw how much media coverage her "win" in Michigan got.)

I think if he keeps it tight on Super Tuesday it goes all the way to the convention- if he doesn't than it is say "good night" and find a way to unify the party behind her.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

Mich was different, the candidates werent on the ballot. Florida however...

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

On Florida you are mixing a whole lot of different issues. And FL is very different from MI because of the names on the ballot and the sheer importance of the state.

It's going to get some play, certainly a lot more than MI but probably less than SC. It's major importance is as a guide to what's happening in a more or less balanced electorate. If she does well there it's a great barometer for next week.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

My estimate is she carries FL and 16-20 on ST most fairly comfortably. If she's in this sort of range even if a few are close I think the Democratic party has spoken with a fairly convincing voice. They should probably make a deal on the ticket and then we roar into action. Unlike many here I don't see what the Democratic party gains from a costly struggle stretching to June particularly if a Republican emerges from the pack.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:11:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

I agree that they should make a deal as soon as possible to unite the party so we can get back to attacking our real enemies rather than each other (although as far as this community goes there is more than one person from both sides that I will never forgive for their behavior here.)

To be honest, although I am a supporter of Obama I would welcome the opportunity for him to share the ticket with Hillary as her VP candidate. I think they would make a strong team and balance each other well. The question is whether she would make the concessions necessary for this to happen (he would most likely want a substantive role in the administration and that might be hard will Bill stalking in the White House hallways.)

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

On electability (none / 0)

Checked the internals of both polls and they say Hillary has a substatial advantage on perception of electability; by better than 2 to 1 in the field poll and almost 2 to 1 in gallup poll the primary voters say Hillary has a better chance to win in November. Californians really believe she is more electable. I don't see Hillary losing this state.

by Christopher Lib on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:42:51 PM EST

Re: On electability (none / 0)

I don't think anyone sees her losing the state in terms of percentage. Its a question of delegates though. Delegates decide who wins the nomination and the electoral college decides who wins the general... just because we don't like it doesn't mean it isn't true- and it is best that we all keep this in mind.

"Wins" might have mattered in IA, NH,NV, and SC but now it is delegates. She can win all the states she wants- but it is the delegate count that is going to matter.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:47:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On electability (none / 0)

keep going with that narrative, but the explosion of delegates to HRC on Feb 5th will make Obama not want to focus on delegates anymore, as he would be behind by more than all the delegates he has racked up to date.

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:51:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On electability (none / 0)

You don't get it

The "narrative" isn't going to matter.
The momentum isn't going to matter.

Either Hillary's win will be so impressive IN TERMS OF DELEGATES that it will be obvious that she is getting enough to secure the nomination or it won't be.

If it is than the game is over on Feb 6th, if it isn't than there will be a slugfest for delegates from here to the convention.

And for your information I say this as a relatively unbiased bystander. I live in Pennsylvania and don't vote until April. I lean towards Obama but am happy with either.

I just love the way that all of the Clinton supporters have it in their heads that it is all wrapped up. It isn't that simple and if you looked at this election objectively you would see that.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On electability (none / 0)

You make good points, I'm a Clinton supporter and don't think it's wrapped up but if she wins 16+ on super tuesday regardless of delegate count which is obviously not going to favor her as much the simple 18:4 narrative say, I do think that it's a fairly definitive statement of where the most populous and important parts of the country are if she has also done well in FL. There will come a point for him when he's going to be seen as something of a destroyer. Of course it all depends on the numbers. If her coalition holds tomorrow and next Tuesday she's the winner. If it doesn't she aint.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:38:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, Bu (none / 0)

My wife has a lot of family in California. My mother-in-law hates Hillary (no idea why, pick one of the standard reasons why liberals might dislike her) but I think the whole rest of the family is for HRC. Mind you, we're talking about a bunch of old Methodist ladies here so this is pretty much right in Hillary's breadbasket.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:49:15 PM EST

Local Ads (none / 0)

Apparently in MO and AZ Obama is running ads showing his local supporters talking. I wouldn't be surprised to see ads in CA soon with Congressman Xavier Becerra and Senator Ted Kennedy.

by Obama08 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 03:53:16 PM EST

Re: Local Ads (2.00 / 1)

I'm in a ST state and they've been running both Obama and Clinton ads for about a week now. Relatively low intensity which is how it is in most places. I don't see her losing CT. And in CA she can run Villaraigosa and Chavez ads. The belief in Ted Kennedy as some kind of magic talisman is well lets just say inflated.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Won't win (none / 0)

I don't think he will win, but if he could close CA to be within 5 points it would be huge. I do think that CA may very well not be called until February 6th.

by Obama08 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:13:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Local Ads (none / 0)

Kennedy isn't some sort of magic talisman, but the endorsement is a part of the positive news cycle that Obama needs pretty much constantly from now until 2/5 to make up the ground that he is behind. Someone mentioned Gore as well. By himself, he is no magic talisman either, but his endorsement would be another link in the chain that Obama needs. It's going to be a long road for him, though, he's still pretty far behind. He got a couple points bump in the national polls since SC, he needs a couple more so that the media perception is that the national race is a statistical tie (which it's not right now) so that that is how it is reported to the masses. If you pile Kennedy on top of Gore on top of a tightening race nationally, that is the climate where Obama really can get people to rethink their support.

Again, this is no easy task ahead or him. Kennedy is just one piece of the puzzle. Gore has NOT endorsed Obama yet and the national race has NOT tightened enough for Obama yet either.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Local Ads (none / 0)

Lets just say I don't think personal endorsements are quite the paradigm shifters you appear to think they are. If he sustains a big loss in FL tomorrow it would shake his narrative. I'm absolutely on tenterhooks to see what happens there because it's basically going to validate the polls or say they are nonsense.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

taking her lumps (2.00 / 1)

Clinton had to get some negative information on Obama out after Iowa, but she couldn't do it before New Hampshire or Nevada without hurting her chances there. She had little chance of winning South Carolina so it was logical to get Rezko, Iraq waffling, present votes and single payer flip-flops out in the past two weeks. Attacks always have a backlash, and Obama has tried to capitalize on the backlash by charging racism at every turn, but it should fade over the next week before February 5th while the doubts about Obama will remain. Polls will tighten as the backlash passes through, but with luck her gamble will pay off. The other dynamic to take into account is the natural tightening as election day approaches and people make up their minds, hopefully her numbers will rise enough to stay comfortably ahead.

by souvarine on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:05:50 PM EST

Re: taking her lumps (none / 0)

The so called "backlash" is largely in the minds of the media and blogland. It's probably driven up his black vote a bit but it just reinforced a massive existing tendency. I'm amazed at how quickly SC is going off the radar, I really am. I'm a great believer in coalition theory and for example always believed that Bush would win in 04 crazy though it seemed. The lines of the Clinton and Obama coalitions are to me fairly clearly defined. If her coalition (women, registered democrats, over 50's, hispanics, unionized workers) holds and her ground game is sound she can't really be beaten because basically her coalition is bigger than his. If it doesn't hold she's sunk. I expected all the polls in these primaries to tighten but as long as she stays in double figures I think she's in good shape. If she breaks 50% tomorrow it will be a very good sign. If she doesnt I'd be uneasy.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, Bu (none / 0)

As long as he comes out of California with a solid chunk of delegates, I'll be happy.

by dmc2 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:10:35 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, Bu (none / 0)

Obama and Kennedy are headed to California together today or tomorrow...its going to play well on California TV over the next few days. Kennedy gets to be the big dawg for a couple days--the attack dog--he gets to play the role of VP--and tell the voters exactly why they shouldn't vote for clinton and they should vote for change. And Obama gets to keep on being Obama.

California is going to go down to the wire. It prides itself on bing liberal and it moved up its primary to have a voice in the process. There are lots of young people, lots of well educated wealthy liberals and lots of activists. The Clintons cannot take California for granted.

by aiko on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:16:16 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points, Bu (none / 0)

My daughter is a young, well educated, extremely liberal, living in CA, and I can assure you Ted Kennedy made not an iota of difference to her. Purely anecdotal of course. The thing is all the groups you are talking about are being measured in the polls already. Clinton will get about 3 out of five white voters, about 1.5 out 10 black voters and about 8.5 out of 10 hispanics. She wins CA by about 10%.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:28:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

Trying again... (Hopefully this will not double post).

"one-fifth of California Democrats expected to vote in the Democratic primary have already sent in their ballots"

I don't think we know that this year. Given all indpendents will be voting in the D primary and the general increase in turnout this year, I think California could double (or more) projections.

In general I think the polls are dubious, in part because of the turnout question. If the internals of the polls I've seen hold up, it strikes me that it will end up being a very close race. Obama could even win it if he wins 80 percent plus of the black vote and cuts into Clinton's lead among latinos.

by alchemi on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:17:01 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

He will get 80% of black vote but he's not going to make a big dent in the hispanic vote. These are the least mobile segments of the electorate. So that leaves the white kids versus the white wrinklies.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

All of these poll's were taken before the SC primary and the Kennedy endorsement.

I bet the next set of poll's will show a lead by 5 pts or less in CA.

by BDM on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:35:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted January 23-26, 2008 with 755 Republican registered voters and 779 Democratic registered voters who plan to vote (or have voted) in the California presidential primary. The maximum margin of error attributable to both samplings is ±5 percentage points.

USAToday and Gallup Poll

by BDM on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

Why don't we just wait to see if that happens. CA is 3000 miles away as far away as Britain. I'd say if anything SC drove her white voting numbers up a bit and made no diff to the black numbers because he was going to get 80+ of those anyway. If you take Florida, virtually next door, where they have just taken a partially post SC poll she bumped up a couple of points

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

Their is generally a delay in bounces by a day or two before it set's in. We shall see what the Rasmussen Poll and Gallup poll's show tomorrow. Those rolling averages will not show the full impact of the SC results and the Kennedy endorsement untill Thursday.

I still will bet that in the next two days their will not be a double digit lead by Clinton either nationally or in CA.

tODAY IN rASMUSSEN IT WAS cLINTON 39 Obama 31 8 pts.

by BDM on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 04:53:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

Actually from memory that was an increase for Clinton. At the end of last week there was only 3 points separating them as I recall.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 05:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lead in California Still 12 Points (none / 0)

We need to see the full impact of SC results and the Kennedy endorsement.

By Thursday we will see it and I predict a dead heat on the national poll's and California will be within 5 pts.

by BDM on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 07:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What no one is saying (none / 0)

Independents are not allowed to vote in the GOP primary, only in the Democratic primary.

John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.

by jkfp2004 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 05:20:18 PM EST

Re: What no one is saying (none / 0)

And the pollsters are so incompetent they haven't reflected that in their models. They should be fired.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 05:22:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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