MyDD :: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Place

Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Place

by Todd Beeton, Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:34:27 AM EST

So, are late-deciders breaking for Obama or are they coming back to Clinton and is the Edwards surge alive or dead? Looking at the final three SC polls, any of these scenarios could bear out.

Candidate	ARG 1/24-25 (1/22-23)	Zogby 1/23-25 (1/22-24)	Survey USA 1/23-24 (1/22-23)
Obama	39 (45)	41 (38)	43 (45)
Clinton	36 (36)	26 (25)	30 (29)
Edwards	22 (12)	19 (21)	24 (22)

Survey USA sums up the latest polling results and puts trying to predict the outcome in perspective:

Last time 14 pollsters all told you that Barack Obama would win a Primary, all 14 were wrong. That was the day before New Hampshire, 18 days ago.

History has an opportunity to repeat itself this weekend: 7 8 9 pollsters are working the South Carolina Democratic Primary, and all 7 8 9 have Barack Obama ahead.

At this hour, subject to possible late releases by competing firms, here is the pollster line-up, ranked from largest Obama advantage to smallest:

1. Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead by 20.
2. Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 15.
3. SurveyUSA has Obama ahead by 13.
4. Zogby has Obama ahead by 13.
5. Insider Advantage has Obama ahead by 10.
6. Ron Lester & Associates has Obama ahead by 10.
7. Mason Dixon has Obama ahead by 8.
8. Clemson University has Obama ahead by 7.
9. American Research Group has Obama ahead by 3.

(It should be noted that Survey USA predicted the Republican SC results closer than any other pollster.)

So what's up with the severe variations we're seeing in these polls? Mark Blumenthal tells us it's the undecideds, stupid:

Many South Carolina voters are still uncertain, both about their choices and about whether they will vote (my colleague Charles Franklin has a separate post up this afternoon looking at South Carolina's "endgame" trends).

Take a look at the results of eight different polls released in the last few days. As Ciccina noticed, the biggest differences are in the "undecided" percentage, which varies from 1% to 36%.

But just because it's a fool's errand to predict what will happen on Saturday doesn't mean we won't try. What's your best guess? I say Obama wins by less than 10 points, Edwards barely breaks 20% and remains in third place.

Update [2008-1-26 3:49:47 by Todd Beeton]:On the Ed Schultz Show today I heard a caller bemoan the fact that the media coverage of South Carolina has been focused on race and gender. Really? The focus in Iowa was largely on the youth vote and the focus in Nevada was on labor and the hispanic community. It's demographics. It's just that this year, with the first African-American viable candidate and the first female viable candidate, South Carolina has become a perfect storm for an exploration of identity politics, but this that these topics are off-limits or that it's offensive is ridiculous. If you find it just as unappetizing as that caller did, you probably won't be too big a fan of the way the results are likely to be covered tonight. Charles Franklin gives us a preview of what he'll be looking for.

I think the more compelling story of South Carolina will be the exit poll results. Obama has appealed to white voters in previous primaries and caucuses. The pre-election polls have found him getting as low as 10% of the white vote in South Carolina. The potential for racial polarization in this Southern state could damage his ability to transcend race as a basis of voting. Paradoxically, there has been speculation that Clinton can win the votes of black women, a result that could reduce polarization in the exit poll. We'll know much more about how voters decided by Saturday night.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, south carolina primary, barack obama, hillary clinton (all tags)

Permalink :: 61 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Final South Carolina Polls...All Over The (none / 0)

Obama wins South carolina by 3 points.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:36:50 AM EST

Re: The Final South Carolina Polls...All Over The (none / 0)

Clinton is clearly taking a stanglehold on the support of of white women ovr 65 years old, and will ride that to a 4-point victory. A win by anything less than that will be a devastating setback for her.

by aretino on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:01:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Final South Carolina Polls...All Over The (none / 0)

This laughable spin. You can't really expect anyone to take this seriously. Obama has been ahead in SC for more than 6 weeks, and still according to every single poll. Now if Hillary doesn't suddenly win by 2 points, it's a devastating loss? Give me a break.

If you're going to lower expectation, at least do it so that people don't outright guffaw at you.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:29:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Final South Carolina Polls...All Over The (none / 0)

You obviously haven't been following the genius yellowdem's dairies like everyone else in the country. Everyone knows that he's proved that this is in the bag for Hillary, so anything less than a crushing victory for her really will shock the nation.

by aretino on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:34:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Perhaps I am wrong ... (none / 0)

but I suspect that your comment was meant to provoke a chuckle. Too bad people have lost all of their sense of humor in the heat of the candidate wars.

by herodotus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Final South Carolina Polls...All Over The (none / 0)

your posts are a joke.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

False hope (none / 0)

I don't think so Lori. This is the end of the line for Obama. Bill and Hillary have successfully beaten him with all this racial stuff. Game, set and match. It's over. Hillary can coast through and hope she recovers the black vote when the wounds are healed. No contest, cynicism trumps hope and aren't we all thrilled, at least those of us who never believed.

What could we stupid Obama supporters have been thinking, up against the masters of political infighting, the gladiatorial champions of politics as a blood sport? Thing is, they have probably crippled whatever chance he had for the future too. Pretty thorough demolition job and amazingly quick, didn't take long. They've been planning this for SC for awhile, I'm guessing. I'd hate to be among those who endorsed them that have to answer to the black community but, well, that's the way it goes. It ain't beanbag and someone always gets thrown to the wolves. Time heals all wounds, I guess that's what they are counting on.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:09:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

Are you under the impression that the black community is monolithic? I'd beg to differ, as would many others.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:15:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

I'm not talking about the black community, whatever gave you that impression?

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

This did:

I'd hate to be among those who endorsed them that have to answer to the black community but, well, that's the way it goes.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:30:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

Oh, sorry, you're right. Yeah, well I am certainly not expecting the black community to act in unison, but still, it's a mighty invidious position, methinks. A lot depends on how much finesse the Clintons can muster in pulling this one out of the fire and I certainly don't underestimate their skill having seen it so amply demonstrated recently. And yet, most of those endorsements came from people who depend on getting elected again sooner or later.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:04:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

your comments are a joke too. Go race bait somewhere else.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:02:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

Always the touching sentimentalist, eh Mollie? Cheer up, your gal is home and hosed.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:40:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

You know, Shaun, this track is the cynical one, but not unexpected.

I said months ago that some of the most severely "star struck" sour graper supporters from other candidates will not be able to see a Hillary victory as legitimate, that they will charge voters with being too "low info to know better," or they are latent racists and just plain old stupid. This track is demeaning to the process and all of us. I hope you will get off this line before too long. It is cheap and sour.

If Obama loses the nomination, it is because he was never able to connect with DEMOCRATS nationally. He did a pretty good job with Independents, but that is the crux of the problem. Just like with McCain (who is the Independent's darling) you don't appeal to the moderate/centrist Indies without losing a bunch of your more polarized party faithful. Don't go now and illegitimize the end result by making these comments/charges. It may be easy to hold your candidate harm free of blame so you don't have to answer the real questions about "what went wrong" with the candidacy, but it is neither a correct reading of true events, nor is it the thing to do for any Democrat worth his salt.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: False hope (none / 0)

Whoa, George. I am conceding. Outplayed by the pros, outmatched by the masters. There's no 'not fair' in politics at this level. The Clintons, well I'm thinking Bill actually, with some predictable but unwitting assists from the media, totally outmanoeuvred and flummoxed Obama and Axelrod on identity politics and have basically forced them into running Jackson '88 redux and it's all over rover. The die is cast.

I think it was one of the most impressive knock-outs in modern primary politics and you're complaining? What would please you? She's won the nomination.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:59:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (2.00 / 1)

It is impossible to believe that a NH scenario could repeat itself. Obama has been ahead, usually way ahead, in every single poll since Iowa. He should win by around 10 points.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:41:20 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

not going to happen.

that spread is too wide.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:48:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

I am with Steve on this.

Obama will get 75% of the African American vote and 10-20% of the non-African American vote, giving him 40-50% of the vote.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:56:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

He would probably get 60 - 65% of the black vote , I don't see 75%.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:59:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

My predictions (none / 0)

That Zogby poll has Hillary at around 21-23% for the last day, with Edwards at 19%. He certainly has a chance to beat her for second if Zogby is right on this poll and also he gets a good share of undecideds. I'm glad he's been mentioning Hillary leaving the state on election day in all his speeches today. That never goes well with voters.

Prediction
Obama: 46
Edwards: 27 (Slightly on top)
Clinton: 27

by Progressive America on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:48:17 AM EST

Re: My predictions (none / 0)

dreams

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:49:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My predictions (none / 0)

I think there's a chance. I don't trust polls after NH and Nevada, but several polls are showing it close between Edwards and Hillary, so I think it's possible. Also, Edwards jumped 10 points from the poll average in 2004. I don't know if he'll be able to do the same this time with competition in the state, but I think there might be a lot of people decide to go for the homestate candidate at the end. I also wonder if the upstate regions around Seneca are being underpolled? I would expect very high turnout in his home city to show up for Edwards.

by Progressive America on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:02:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Obama: 45
Clinton: 35
Edwards: 20

+/- 5

I also have another prediction. In the unlikely event that the MSM tells us, at any point in the night, that the race is 'too close to call' that means Clinton has won the nomination.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:52:37 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

She's already won. Anything it takes.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:12:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

that's very close to my prediction (none / 0)

Obama 45, Clinton 33, Edwards 22.

I am expecting record black turnout in this primary.

I know the polls are all over the place, but ARG has tended to be the best poll for Clinton in several states, so I am not buying their slim lead scenario.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

ed shultz

- the guy whose head was about to explode on TV the other day , screaming that Bill Clinton lied about the thing about Monica.

I shudder to think what his radio show would be about , he looked almost like if Bill was sitting right in front of him he would have jumped all over him.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:55:04 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Yes, I have to say he was way over the top. MSNBC really scraped the barrel with that guy.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:58:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Ed Schultz is a moronic PINO. This is the same man who threw a temper tantrum because Hillary wouldn't come on his show as much as he wanted. He's a big, misinformed baby.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:33:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

It's not that the media talks about race, it's that they only know how to do it according to the stupidest and most offensive narratives.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:00:08 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

They must be following someone's lead. I wonder whose? Give them a good story and, well, you know...

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:50:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Those evil Clinton's of Course. (none / 0)

This is rude of me, but Obama deserves better than the supporters he has.

Though to be fair, all the candidates have a less than stellar crew.

I will be so glad when this is over. I am sick of obnoxious candidate diaries by obnoxious supporters.

Obama's no saint, Clinton isn't the only sinner in the bunch and these statements apply to Edwards as well.

We have been through 8 years of some of worst things we will ever see and this country has seen in a 100 years. I'll take any of the 3 lets get on with destroying the GOP.

"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

by molly bloom on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Those evil Clinton's of Course. (none / 0)

No more or less rude than your typical fare, frankly. Yes, this was the doing of the Clinton machine, the politics of personal destruction, the politics of narrow victories at any cost, deceit and prevarication. Hey, she won, what do you care? The game is over and she has once again emerged the winner, never mind the warm blood on her hands. Hillary supporters never cared about anything but winning, as the evidence of your own posts of the last few months amply demonstrate. No sublte deception, unwarranted accusation or torsion of the truth ever stood in your way, why cry crocidile tears over it now when your priceless victory is at hand?

What do you care what the cost now that you have your champion and your precious victory? Never mind the cost, you have won. Be glad, you can stop lying at last. Until your next campaign.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:01:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Those evil Clinton's of Course. (none / 0)

What the hell is your problem, Shaun? You are acting no better than your garden variety troll today. Take a deep breath and review some FACTS for a change (rather than whatever talking points you pick up from the Obama crew.)

1. After Obama lost NH in dramatic fashion, the sour talk was not about Hillary's amazing victory, which was due to massive turnout for her, a major positive if you are a Democrat, but about DIEBOLD inconsistencies, but worse of all.....yes, you guessed it: RACISM. Yes, folks, Hillary did not win because she did well in any way, but because New Hampsherites have this LATENT RACISM deeply inside their hearts, which then showed itself when they stepped into that voting booth and said to themselves "You know, I really like that Obama guy, but I don't really like black people. It is something I am living with and don't dare tell anyone, so I am jost going to change my support away from Obama to Hillary, because she is white, like me." The names "Bradley" and "Dinkins" were all over the place, and the Obama campaign did its part in using these types of excuses so they would not have to answer the real questions, the real failures of the campaign. That entire episode was reverse-racism at its finest, and Obama fans thought nothing about levelling these ridiculous charges against voters of a state for no other reason to drag race into this contest. Obama surrogats were sent out to make further racially charged comments, thereby again engaging in reverse-racism. Hillary's choked-up moment was bashed as utterly selfish and the question was raised where here tears were for KATRINA victims and the JENA 6.

2. Then came the MLK/LBJ thing and the charge of racism. Did you READ the comment at all? It had NOTHING to do with race. NOTHING. However, Obama and his campaign decided that they would make it about race. They obviously saw benefits in doing so.

Previous to that anytime Obama was criticized RACE became a factor due to Obama surrogates making charges of RACISM. The comment "naive and irresponsible" was CODE for a perceived (historically false) BLACK MAN'S naivete and irresponsible behavior. Once again, reverse-racism at its finest.

Ugly, ugly, ugly. Maybe the Clinton campaign should have just smiled and not pushed back when they were hit with these RACISM charges every time they made a comment about Obama ("CODE" has become the standard yelp,) but I don't think so. The Obama camp has from early on made these outrageous charges of hidden RACISM, and that in itself was racist to the hilt (in reverse.)

Maybe this was unavoidable. To many Obama fans he has a sort of messianic magnetism, and since he is a black man, to them any criticism of his record, his behavior, his contradictions would automatically appear racist. It is just incredible to see what appear to be otherwise good Democrats getting caught up in the same type of emotional reasoning that has no basis in reality.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:39:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Those evil Clinton's of Course. (none / 0)

Look, George, I have never accused anyone of racism, though I was a bit taken aback by the MLK/LBJ thing at first sight. I find it a bit disconcerting that Hillary supporters who have lauded their candidate for playing crafty, hard-ball politics would blanch at, or even deny, that they had won by doing so when it happens before our very eyes. But it isn't racist. It is just ruthless identity politics and I take my hat off to them. I think they may have underestimated the consequences but I could be wrong. But in any case, credit where credit is due. They played Obama for a sucker and he fell for it. It's almost exactly what you predicted months ago and I acknowledge it. Where's the sour grapes in that? You always suggested, in fact stated, that this ain't beanbag and I am frankly amazed at how effortlessly they accomplished it. As you said, and I think you were right, Bill is a master and this looks like his handiwork.

Where's the racist part? They framed him like Jesse Jackson and now they can run against him confidently through February 5th. I'm ready to concede, what part of you won don't you understand? You can send your PayPal details via my email account and I will settle up our wager, enjoy your steak dinner in good spirits!

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:50:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Those evil Clinton's of Course. (none / 0)

It is not over quite yet. Not by a long shot.

I DO believe that Clinton will win, but NOT because of all this ridiculous stuff. Feb. 5 was always going to be a day virtually impossible for Obama to overcome, IMO. When Hillary won NH it more than equalized Iowa, which then led to her winning Nevada. Racist stuff was not part of either win, even though many Obama supporters and also some of his surrogates tried to create that impression (NH: Dinkins/Bradley effect, NV: Hispanics don't like Blacks.)

At that point the dynamics that we had seen all year long in CA, NY, CT, etc. were going to hold throughout the early slogging. Quit making this about the "tactics" you so bitterly ascribe to the Clinton team (Obama is obviously pure as the driven snow.) This was ALWAYS going to be about

The fierce partisan who bashes the other side

vs.

The post-partisan uniter

Gender and race factor in very marginally, and for you to elevate any such window dressing from BOTH sides to the DECIDING factor here is what I find deplorable. Democrats as a whole never warmed up to Obama. There is a lesson in that, which will serve future candidates well, and which should also lead to a healthy self-critique inside camp Obama. Suddenly Democrats were going to embrace Obama after Hillary won New Hampshire in dramatic fashion were it not for some comments that you consider in the vein you do? Let's not be delusional here, Shaun.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Those evil Clinton's of Course. (2.00 / 1)

First off I am an Edwards supporter. I happen to think the handwringing whining about the evil Clintons is nonsense. Obama is no saint in this. Senator from Punjab; Michelle Obama's HRC can't keep her own house to name two.

Edwards hands aren't clean either.

Look these are politicians. Don't put them up on a pedestal until they are dead and buried and you review the entire career. Most of them will never get on that pedestal and I doubt if Obama will.

I will be happy to vote for Obama if he is the nominee. Most insurgent challengers never get this far. So he is doing well. But his whiny supporters don't help him one IOTA. Obama is a new face, but his politics aren't new. You delude yourself if you think otherwise.

"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

by molly bloom on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:18:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (2.00 / 2)

You must not follow politics very closely if you doubt the media's ability to come up with infantile narratives on its own.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:40:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Now that was funny.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:00:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

kind of agree on the narratives part, (none / 0)

and it's not just the traditional media.

I think Charles Franklin's point about polarization is well taken, but...
it's just a short take (I will wait for his detailed analysis), and I believe it's only meant to refer to the SC race.

When he says:
"The potential for racial polarization in this Southern state could damage his ability to transcend race as a basis of voting" I think he only means his ability to transcend race in the SC Primary, not necessarily from this point forward.

Many commenters and some bloggers seem to be reading it that way. They are seeing it as a validation of all the talk, speculation, and slapdash analysis of the polls showing SC tightening. (No one is analyzing the Rasmussen or PPP polls showing little movement or Obama gaining.)

And everyone is fixating on the 10% number--something only ONE poll has found. The numbers for Obama's white support from all the others over the past week ?
17, 18, 19, 20, 20, 21, 22, 24

It's low, but...

I'm not sure what could have been expected after the ugliness of Jan. 12-19
It's SC, a state and electorate with a significant history of polarization, and dirty politics being foisted on them
There was virtually no lasting discussion of race in IA and NH
Edwards is pulling most of his new support from Obama's white supporters

I've seen no convincing argument why the SC dynamics should translate to other states, beyond the fact that the traditional and progressive media may in fact fuel the narrative that it will.

by along on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:57:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: kind of agree on the narratives part, (none / 0)

The potential for racial polarization in this Southern state could damage his ability to transcend race as a basis of voting. Exactly. Jesse Jackson redux. Finished.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:15:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina (2.00 / 1)

South Carolina, considering the demographics, matters only to the Clinton-hating MSM and pundits--which of course, is why Obama is in the race at all, to attempt to destroy the Clintons and the bedrock of the Democratic Party.

But whether African-Americans are taken-in by the spoiled brat and his rhetoric os of little consequence.

Senator CLinton will overwhelm the Obama brats in Florida and on Super Tuesday.

After that, we bedrock Democrats can drive the Obama brats out.

We want our party back! No Reagan lovers in the DEMOCRATIC PARTY need apply.

And we will give the Clinton-hating MSM that much needed and long-overdue slap in the face!

For if Hillary is the nominee, she is the next President.

And the MSM is going to need to get used to it.

by lambros on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:31:10 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Obama's toast. The racial narrative which has been successfully applied to his campaign by the acknowledged masters of the politics of personal destruction, and he is equally culpable for even attempting to push back on it, has destroyed his candidacy. He's finished, I would be surprised if he didn't lose SC by five points.

Welcome to America, folks. Nothing much has changed and by all accounts we already had a 'black' president years ago, isn't that the story? Time for a woman, I guess. Good ol' Bubba. What a guy.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:56:40 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Cheer up. Obama's going to win SC.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:32:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

So what, even if he does. RFK died in a kitchen.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:12:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

...

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:41:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

these polls are pretty consistent (none / 0)

they really aren't all of the place. The reason people say so is that they compare the difference between the candidates, instead of the actual numbers for each candidate. The m.o.e. is for each indivdidual, not between the candidates. These polls are pretty consistent if you understand the volitality between undecideds and Clinton

by yellowdem1129 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:48:32 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Prediction... (Keep in mind, i nailed IA and failed horribly at NH, MI & NV)

Obama 50%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 24%
Gravel 1%

What would LBJ do?

by Socks The Cat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:57:07 AM EST

That's what it would take. (none / 0)

If Obama doesn't win by double digits, the primary is over. SC has already been talked to death. If Hillary wins or loses by a small margin, the pundits will move on to the Florida race before Obama is even through with his "victory" speech.

Bush. McCain. - The result will be the same. JohnMcBush.com

by NoMcW on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:08:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

Obama by 12 points.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:16:38 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls (none / 0)

A warning about the tone about the South Carolina Primary

The Media's Three-Fifths Compromise

by rikyrah on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:18:26 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls (none / 0)

Interesting article. Thanks for the link.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:37:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final South Carolina Polls (none / 0)

Pretty ugly racism in that blog.

by hwc on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:11:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is Survey USA the most accurate? (none / 0)

They certainly think they are. I guess we'll see this evening.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:45:31 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

My prediction:

Obama 41%
Clinton 33&
Edwards 26%

by rcipw on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:55:46 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls (none / 0)

I believe Obama Clinton Edwards are pretty much locked into first, second, and third respectively. I think this is clear a must win for Obama, anything less that a 8 point win will be dissapointing. For Edwards a strong third can give him a legitament excuse to stay in the race. Clinton has the least riding on SC of anyone, that's why she spend half the week in Super Tuesday states, but if she can somehow end close, maybe withing 5 points, it would be a solid boost of confidence for her campaign and a testement once again to her organizational strength that was so key in NH and NV.

by Christopher Lib on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:55:47 AM EST

Clinton will win by a hair (none / 0)

Clinton 37
Obama 35
Edwards 26

In the end her ground game will prevail (yet again).

Leftmost Bit

by Luigi Montanez on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:17:18 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

I have already made my predictions. though the polls have changed a bit and I am tempted to change it, I am going to stick to:

Hillary be a few points, Obama close and Edwards about points behind Obama.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:27:02 AM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

O 41
C 31
E 26

by RT on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:52:43 PM EST

Not me (none / 0)

I'm not going to go there-no predictions from me. I hate polls and the guessing game.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:57:50 PM EST

South Carolina Prediction (none / 0)

I think that Obama takes an 8 point loss, based on the 43 point SurveyUSA poll. So he ends up at 35. Clinton gets very little of that and ends up at 31. Edwards picks up the other 7 points and ends up at 31 as well. That leaves a small number of undecideds, which split between Obama and Edwards.

Obama - 37
Edwards - 32
Clinton - 31

However, I'd be happy with the final two positions being switched and Edwards being "nearly tied" with Clinton.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:59:00 PM EST

Re: Final South Carolina Polls Are All Over The Pl (none / 0)

FWIW, ARG has a really bad track record in South Carolina. They predicted Huckabee would beat McCain by 7. McCain won by 3.

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:32:03 PM EST

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