MyDD :: The Staggered Open Primary Factor

The Staggered Open Primary Factor

by Todd Beeton, Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:10:13 PM EST

From the looks of things, we're in for yet another record turnout in today's South Carolina Democratic primary:

Good weather and an attractive slate of candidates have South Carolina Democrats expecting record turnout for today's presidential primary, continuing a trend seen in other early-voting states. [...]

In 2004, about 290,000 people voted in the Democratic presidential primary. Party officials are hoping as many as 350,000 voters will head to the polls today. Weather forecasts are for sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

But note, we're not talking about just Democrats voting here; South Carolina is an open primary where voters may vote in either primary but not both, and it looks like there are many Republicans and Independents who sat out last Saturday who are voting in the Democratic primary. Check out this report on absentee voters.

Early returns are encouraging. Mike Cinnamon, executive director of the Richland County election commission, said there were long lines of absentee voters Friday. Cinnamon said there were about 700 Republican absentee votes and at least twice that in Democratic votes.

The State Election Commission has issued more Democratic absentee ballots than Republican, a reversal of typical elections.

Not to mention that turnout in last weekend's GOP primary was down from its record high.

Last week -- in ice, rain and cold -- Republican turnout dipped about 22 percent from the all-time high in 2000. About 445,000 voted in last Saturday's Republican primary.

So what is the partisan make-up of today's vote likely to be? Well, that's anyone's guess of course but Survey USA has an interesting post on how the demographic make-up of their voter screen has shifted.

* The number of self-described Independents in the SurveyUSA SC Democratic Primary poll released today is up from 7% in December to 16% today.
* The number of self-described Republicans in the SC Democratic Primary poll released today is up from 4% in December to 8% today.

What happened between then and now? The South Carolina Republican Primary.

One might think that an increase in Independent voters would be good for Obama. Or one might think that voters who are influenced by the result of the GOP SC primary might favor Clinton as a foil for McCain in the fall. But Survey USA finds neither of those to be the case.

The Independents and the Republicans vote disproportionately for John Edwards.

* Among just the registered Democrats in SurveyUSA's sample, Obama leads Clinton by 19 points.
* But among the Independents, Obama and Edwards are effectively tied, with Clinton a dozen points back.
* Among the admittedly tiny handful of Republicans who tell us they will vote in the Democratic Primary, Edwards leads Clinton and Obama.

Now, it should be noted that Survey USA's final numbers have Edwards at 24%, just 6 points behind Clinton, his highest level of any poll; but at the same time, as Survey USA is keen to remind us, they got the GOP SC results closer than any other pollster.

In other words, this is likely to be another fascinating contest that could render a surprising result. God forbid it be boring.

Polls close at 7pm EST.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, south carolilna primary, hillary clinton, barack obama, john edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Staggered (none / 0)

Considering the fact that Jesse Jackson received 64% of the vote in South Carolina in 1988, this year's Black Candidate has a ways to go to match that.

by robert ethan on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:13:58 PM EST

I don't know where people get that number from (none / 0)

This says Jackson got 54%. Note too that that was in a caucus, not a primary (Jackson, like a lot of well-organized insurgent candidates, did far better in caucuses).

by Shawn on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Staggered (2.00 / 2)

I don't know why everyone keeps citing this statistic, which flat-out isn't true, or why the appropriate benchmark for Barack Obama has to be to compare him to another black guy. He's not running for the job of Black President, you know.

The SC caucus results in 1988 were Jackson 54%, Gore 18%, Dukakis 7%.

And Jesse Jackson was BORN in South Carolina. So please, enough of this talking point.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Staggered (none / 0)

Steve what you're missing here is "black" framing of this election. It was dominant media theme this morning.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:05:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Staggered (none / 0)

I do not see it as my job to engage in "black framing."

The relevant benchmarks to judge Barack Obama against are Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. It's absurd to think the first question we ask should be whether Obama did better than that other black guy.

Maybe the media likes to look at things that way but I get offended by a lot of what the media says.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:13:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Steve I just watched my local news. All racial. (none / 0)

We're not talking about what your job is we are talking about popular perception which is shaped to some extent by the media. You may be offended and it is indeed absurd but that's how it is. One of the problems I find here is that folks don't seem able to separate their personal feelings from discussions of electoral strategy and tactics. One can be supporter of a candidate but it shouldn't blind one to realities. It's that kind of blinkered thinking that's responsible for Iraq.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Steve I just watched my local news. All racial (none / 0)

We are not discussing electoral strategy and tactics here, we are talking about a guy who immediately jumped into the thread to posit Jesse Jackson as the relevant benchmark.

We can talk about the fact that the media is portraying the race in those terms, but that doesn't legitimize it when others do it.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:27:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah (1.00 / 0)

we really ought to just get it over with and make SC delegates only worth 3/5, right?

by zonk on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:07:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Whatever (none / 0)

n/t

by zonk on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:58:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Staggered Open Primary Factor (none / 0)

I heard a brief mention on MSNBC earlier this afternoon that there was unusually high turnout in what are normally Republican areas. Obviously, the actual results remain to be seen, but it looks like we could be in for a bit of a surprise tonight.

by blueflorida on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:21:31 PM EST

Exit Polls (2.00 / 1)

Early SC exit poll highlights
Posted on Sat, Jan. 26, 2008Digg del.icio.us AIM print email
The Associated Press
Some highlights of preliminary data from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday:

---

IT'S THE ECONOMY, AGAIN

Given three choices, half the voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country - up from 38 percent in the only other competitive Democratic primary to date, in New Hampshire on Jan. 8. About a quarter picked health care, comparable to New Hampshire. Only about one in five picked Iraq, down from 27 percent in New Hampshire.

WHAT DO YOU WANT IN A CANDIDATE?

As in New Hampshire, three in four Barack Obama voters said the most important quality in a candidate is that he can bring about needed change. Four in 10 Hillary Rodham Clinton voters said their priority was that a candidate has the right experience while nearly three in 10 picked change. As usual, John Edwards scored highest on empathy - at least half his voters said it was most important that the candidate "cares about people like me." Few voters said the candidate's electability was their top priority.

ISSUES OR CANDIDATE QUALITIES?

Asked whether their candidate's positions on issues or leadership and personal qualities were more important to their vote, six in 10 said issues.

READY FOR A FIRST

Three in four voters said the country is ready to elect a black president and about as many said that about a woman. Somewhat more Clinton voters said the country is not ready to elect a black than Obama voters said the country wasn't ready to elect a female president.

ATTACK!!!!!

After the contentious Democratic debate Monday night, three in four Obama voters said Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly and slightly fewer than half accused their own candidate of attacking Clinton unfairly. Two-thirds of Clinton voters said Obama attacked her unfairly and nearly as many said she attacked him unfairly. Edwards voters were more likely than either of the other candidates' supporters to say both Clinton and Obama attacked each other unfairly.

LOOKING AHEAD

Roughly four out of five voters would be satisfied if Clinton or Obama wins the Democratic nomination. Slightly more Clinton voters would be dissatisfied with Obama than vice-versa.

Slightly more Obama voters say Clinton would be more likely to be the eventual Democratic nominee than vice-versa.

http://www.miamiherald.com/692/story/394 870.html

by BigB on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:46:44 PM EST

Re: The Staggered Open Primary Factor (none / 0)

And even if a victory for Obama, what does that portend?

The African-American candidate with a predominantly African-American base wins with the help of anti-Clinton Republicans and independents.

Which will prove lethal in moving forward, in states where such cross-overs do not occur and bedrock Democrats are actually the majority voting.

Howard Dean's bizarre pro-Obama early calendar is great if one is an anti-Clinton person. (And that is much of the MSM, fueling those anti-Clinton passions)

But for bedrock Democrats, it is with Florida (whose delegates will need to be seated at the convention) and Super Tuesday that they will have their voices truly heard.

by lambros on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 05:52:25 PM EST

I just my LOCAL news in NE. Framing race election (none / 0)

The local station is an NBC affiliate which might have something to do with it but the entire story had a racial spin. BS of course but this has how it has been framed.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:15:17 PM EST

Re: The Staggered Open Primary Factor (none / 0)

In a good or bad way, no snark intended. I think it's good for Hillary when Bill gets out there and campaigns for her. But when a SC big wig like Clyburn indicates that he thinks BC is being unfair to Obama and all but endorses Obama, I have pause as to whether such a high percentage thinking it's important to hear from Bill was good or bad.

by Kingstongirl on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:21:01 PM EST

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