House 2008: Another GOP Retirement... And Another on the Way?

The exodus continues:

Rep. Dave Weldon (R-Fla.) is expected to announce that he will retire from Congress at the end of this session, a Republican source confirmed Friday.

There's more?
The surprise announcement comes within hours of the congressman's daughter, Katie Weldon, being arrested and jailed, accused of attacking an employee at a Brevard County bar.

(I'm not going to touch that last part...)

This one's another tough one for the Republicans given that Weldon represents a seat that while not necessarily a swing district is definitely a competitive one. According to the Cook Political Report, Florida's 15th district leans only about 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. For reference, the Democrats already hold six of the 19 districts (or about 32 percent) with a similar partisan lean. Perhaps more importantly, Weldon's retirement decision ups the number of GOP open seats in districts that lean 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole to 14.

Additionally, word has it that popular former Broward County commissioner Nancy Higgs, a Democrat, should announce today that she will be running in the district, so the Democrats should already have at least one credible candidate in the race.

But that's not the limit to the Republicans' retirement concerns. As I suggested a couple of nights ago, the stream of retirements from within the House GOP camp isn't likely to slow down any time soon, as evidenced by the back-to-back announcements by Jim Walsh in New York and Weldon down in Florida. And now it seems that another endangered Republican in a potentially competitive district may be mulling retirement:

Another area congressman who narrowly won reelection in 2006 is Randy Kuhl, a Republican from Hammondsport, Steuben County. He represents the 29th district, which covers Monroe County's southeastern suburbs.

A Kuhl spokeswoman said today he had not decided whether he would run for reelection. [emphasis added]

As you might remember, Eric Massa, who is running again this cycle, nearly knocked off Kuhl in 2006, holding the Republican to about 52 percent of the vote in the district. If all of the Republicans who faced tough challenges last time around and whose reelection hopes are in real danger this year decide not to run for another term, there might not be any Republicans left in the House still representing Northeastern states -- or potentially competitive districts around the country, for that matter.



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Re: House 2008: Another GOP Retirement (none / 0)

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by shergald on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 01:18:30 PM EST

FL-15 (none / 0)

This was a big surprise and it makes this seat go straight to the top of targets in 2008 for Florida. The district has a PVI of only R+3 and this doesn't count the very large influx of Puerto Rican voters into the district in the last few years.

Here's what I wrote in the November Florida House Rankings:

"In 2006 Weldon faced an underfunded 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist in his reelection bid and won with only 56% of the vote. Now that says something. Prospects are looking bright for the future of this district. Darren Soto won a special election in a previously Republican-held house seat in Kississimee, which also takes in this US House district, earlier this year. The recent influx of Puerto Rican voters may help a Democrat win this seat."

Now with an open seat, we'll have a funded candidate and have a great shot at taking this district.


by Progressive America on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 01:42:32 PM EST

I agree (none / 0)

We have won FL-15 the last two times it has been open.  


by Toddwell on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 05:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House 2008: Another GOP Retirement... And Anot (none / 0)

(I'm not going to touch that last part...)

And yet you did by posting it.


by nathan on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 01:44:49 PM EST

Re: House 2008: Another GOP Retirement... And Anot (none / 0)

Ought to keep an eye on John Shadegg in AZ-3...word on the street is that he is strongly considering retirement as well.  Especially now that he was just been caught laundering money from his PAC to his campaign, and is getting investigated by the FEC over it.  Should be fun to watch.


by SoCalSurfer on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:18:26 PM EST

Re: House 2008: Another GOP Retirement... And Anot (none / 0)

At this point I think even a conservative estimate would have the Democrats picking up 10 or more seats in November.

The lack of money could really, really hurt the GOP this year, and a crushing defeat in '08 would make sure they are still reeling in 2010.


by C S Strowbridge on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:27:14 PM EST

Re: House 2008: Another GOP Retirement... And Anot (none / 0)

There are rumors in FL-06 about Rep. Stearns retiring also. One of our state reps, Jennifer Carroll (R) has been talking about running for the seat very soon.


by nibit25 on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:59:44 PM EST


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