More big trouble for House Republicans, this time in upstate New York (via Swing State Project):

Republican Rep. Jim Walsh of New York is expected to announce his retirement soon, according to a GOP aide familiar with the decision, giving Democrats another pick-up opportunity following a wave of Republican retirements this cycle.

The veteran appropriator had a tough reelection fight in 2006 and was expected to face another challenge in the fall.

[...]

Walsh was first elected to the House in 1988. Walsh's father, William Walsh, was mayor of Syracuse during the 1960s, followed by three terms in the House.

With Walsh's retirement, House Republicans must now defend an even 24 open seats this cycle, which spells real trouble for the party as seeks to limit the number of seats it loses. Even more troublesome for the GOP, Walsh's district, New York's 25th, leans about 3 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. This ups the tally to three Democratic-leaning districts that the Republicans must defend, and 13 districts that lean 6 or fewer points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections (the Democrats already hold six of the 16 districts with with such a 6 point lean). With so many open seats in play -- as well as those from competitive districts in which credible Democratic challengers are going up against potentially weak Republican incumbents -- the GOP is going to be playing defense almost exclusively this cycle.

In addition to this macro problem for the Republicans -- which is compounded by the fact that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee enjoys greater than a $30 million edge over the National Republican Congressional Committee when debts and obligations are taken into account -- the Republicans are specifically in a great deal of trouble specifically in New York 25. As mentioned above, the district has a decent Democratic tilt to it generally, a tilt that could be overcome by a 20-year incumbent like Walsh but one that will be significantly more difficult to overcome for a Republican running in an open seat race. What's more, the Democrats have as a candidate Dan Maffei, who earned a very respectable 49 percent in the district in 2006 and who had more than $300,000 in the bank as of the end of September and likely much more at this point. (You can help pad that total by donating to his campaign through Act Blue.)

Even before this announcement, the Cook Political Report (.pdf) ranked this race as competitive, though with a slight Republican edge, and the Rothenberg Political Report ranked it similarly. At this juncture, with Walsh apparently on his way out, it's hard not to envision this race moving at least into the toss-up category -- and perhaps even the tilt or leans Democratic column. And on election day, I would not at all be surprised to see this as one of a dozen or more pick-ups for the Democrats in the House.

Just to quickly add one more point... Don't be surprised if this isn't the end of the retirements for the House GOP. Looking back to the 1994 cycle, for instance, nine House Democrats retired over the months of January and February, with another four retirement announcements coming in April. With so many blue and purple state Republicans already on their way out, it would not be shocking to see more join the exodus.