I'm going to reiterate something I said during the run up to the Nevada caucuses, when a lot of folks assumed that Barack Obama was bound to win on the basis of selected polling and endorsements: Don't call it a win until it's a win.
The Obama campaign has done a remarkably poor job playing the expectations game, spinning the media (or at least allowing the media to get spun) into believing that Obama was a surefire winner in New Hampshire and Nevada, making relatively narrow losses (and even a seeming win in the delegate count out of Nevada) look like much more significant losses. And it looks like they're doing it again in South Carolina, offering their candidate somewhat of a lose-lose situation (or decreasing his potential upside) by talking about a victory before it has even occurred:
Obama's brain trust believes that Clinton's decision to essentially cede South Carolina to him will backfire, as it will allow him to demonstrate that Iowa was not a fluke -- he can turnout young voters everywhere -- and, that African Americans will resent her refusal to participate in "their" primary.
Why the Obama campaign is helping the Clinton campaign lower expectations in South Carolina -- particularly after that strategy proved to be an abject failure in the wake of the last two nominating contests -- is beyond me. And it's not as if the Clinton team isn't already working overtime to lower expectations for Clinton so that if she loses it isn't a big deal but if she wins it is. Hillary Clinton has spent a good deal of time outside of the Palmetto state this week, a key facet of the campaign's efforts to lower expectations in the state (even as Bill Clinton has campaigned ferociously in her place). Here's Bill Clinton yesterday:
Bill Clinton said Wednesday he expects blacks to vote for Barack Obama and women to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton, and the dynamic may cause his wife to lose the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary Saturday.
The expectations lowering doesn't get much more blatant than that. But rather than push back effectively, the Obama campaign seems to only be feeding it. I suppose that there is the potential for a bandwagon effect to take place where more people decide to vote for Obama in South Carolina because he is perceived to be a sure winner -- but that certainly did not occur in New Hampshire earlier this month. So were I part of the Obama leadership team, I'd be saying the following (which I, even as a relatively detached observer believe): South Carolina is not over.
Update [2008-1-24 14:38:6 by Jonathan Singer]: The Obama campaign did put out a memo (which I've added below the fold) under the heading "Hillary Clinton going all out to win in South Carolina." Maybe that will help with push back in the expectations game. But when other advisors are talking to the press about Clinton ceding the state, it seems to be there's a bit of dissonance in the messaging there.
Update [2008-1-24 14:59:1 by Jonathan Singer]: It looks like Chris Bowers has some thoughts on the matter.
To: Interested Parties
Fr: Joe Erwin, Former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair
Re: Hillary Clinton going all out to win in South Carolina
There’s an old South Carolina saying that goes like this – some people would rather climb a tree to tell a fib than stand on the ground and tell the truth. The truth is Hillary Clinton’s campaign is pulling out all the stops to win in South Carolina. And it includes saying and doing just about anything to win.
Judge the Clinton campaign on their actions rather than their spin:
· On Monday, Clinton’s own state chairman, Don Fowler, publicly stated that despite negative ratings in the 40s, Hillary Clinton would win South Carolina. [SC ETV, January 21, 2008] The day before, Fowler said “I’m confident with the kind of campaign we’re running, next week we’re going to win.” [AP, January 20, 2008]
· The Clinton campaign has made a long-term investment in South Carolina starting 7 months ago, opening offices across the state and hiring over 100 staff, in addition to importing scores of staff from Iowa and Nevada.
· Just before Christmas, the Clinton campaign brought in Steve Bouchard, nationally renowned political and field expert, to take over the South Carolina operation.
· The Clinton campaign has spent well over $135,000 on consultants like State Senator Darrell Jackson specifically to compete for votes in South Carolina’s African-American community.
· Hillary Clinton has the support of former Governor Richard Riley, former Congressman Butler Derrick and dozens of state legislators and local officials. They are pulling out all the stops to win.
· In the last week, the Clinton campaign nearly doubled their TV buy, expanding from spending about $236,000 on a mostly cable TV buy to more than $414,000 on wall-to-wall broadcast TV in every major market in the state.
· On Wednesday, the Clinton campaign launched a dishonest statewide radio ad falsely attacking Barack Obama. It’s the first negative ad aired by any Democratic presidential campaign in South Carolina this year.
· South Carolina women are getting calls from the National Organization for Women (NOW) deliberately distorting Barack Obama’s record on women’s issues, just as the Clinton campaign and their allies did in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
· At stop after stop, Bill Clinton repeated attacks on the Obama health care plan, remarks on Ronald Reagan and record of opposing the war in Iraq that experts like Robert Reich and media outlets like factcheck.org and the Washington Post have shown to be false.
· Despite the fact that 59% of the expected turnout in the January 26 Democratic primary will be women, the Clinton campaign somehow argues that Hillary Clinton cannot win in South Carolina because of her gender.
· Public polling just a few weeks showed Hillary Clinton with a strong lead in South Carolina. (Clinton led Obama 45-31% in AP/Pew Research poll, November 7-25; Led 45-21% in ARG poll November 26-29; and led 42-34% in a CNN poll, December 9-12.) Now that her lead has evaporated, the Clinton campaign claims she can’t win here.
· Now, the Clinton campaign will bring Hillary herself back to the state earlier than they previously planned, with a major economic policy address scheduled today in Greenville and a massive rally planned for Friday night in Charleston with both Bill and Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama is running a very different campaign in South Carolina, reaching out to voters in every part of the state with campaign to unify Americans for change. Rather than a campaign of deception and division, Obama has generated real momentum in South Carolina by speaking the truth, offering hope and never swaying from his deeply held belief in the core decency of the American people.
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