Florida Polling

Post Nevada, Survey USA with a new poll out of Florida:

Clinton        56 (56)
Obama          23 (23)
Edwards        12 (14)
Obama pulls 69 percent of black voters, Clinton pulls 74 percent of hispanic voters. It's among white voters, where Clinton bests Obama by a whopping 60-16-15 percentage. Florida has already started voting, and among those who have already voted, Clinton has a 72 - 17 percent lead over Obama.

Clinton has expanded her campaign strategy nationally this week:

A source in the Clinton campaign confirms that Hillary Clinton will be spending most of the week before the South Carolina primary in states other than South Carolina. She’s expected to spend Tuesday in California and Arizona, and New Mexico. Wednesday she will be in New Mexico and New Jersey and probably New York.
Not too much stock in South Carolina, where Obama is scheduled to be in South Carolina, both Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably the whole week. Clinton returns on Thursday and Friday to South Carolina.



Display:


Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Which is why Clinton desperately wants Florida to matter.  The SC Dem chair doesn't think Obama has broken the pledge, and we should all resist claims that anyone's campaigning in FL.

After all, Floridians could also watch Hillary's recent MTP appearance, no?


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:11:32 PM EST

Re: Florida Polling (2.00 / 1)

Who is advertising in Florida ?


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

No one. Link to the only person whose views matter on this:

Though the Clinton campaign convened a conference call with several early-state supporters, Obama's claims the stamp of approval approval from the only early-state chair still in play, South Carolina's Carol Fowler.

"Both national cable networks told us it would be impossible for us to run advertising nationally that excluded only Florida. For that reason we consulted with the South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Carol Fowler who told us unequivocally she did not consider this to be in violation of pledge made to the early states," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:17:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

At this point, it doesn't really matter.  Obama is going to win South Carolina by double digits, he's free to violate any pledge he wants.  It does show the type of scumbag he really is, but he's free to do so.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

The whole point of the pledge is to protect the status of the first four states, and SC is the only one left.


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

The Feb 5 states might argue differently


Texas Economics
by IVR Polls on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Huh?  What problem would they have with national advertising?

Think of it this way: Alabama is a Feb 5 state.  To advertise in Mobile, however, will lead to some FL viewers seeing your ads.  Can the candidates not run ads in Mobile until after SC is done?


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

It may not be an issue if the pledge was specifically made to the official early states. But logically, the Feb 5 states also see their impact diminished by another state jumping in front.

Obama's campaign consulted with SC, so they must acknowledge that there could possibly be a 'problem' with national advertising,


Texas Economics
by IVR Polls on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:49:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

The Feb 5 states have no "rights" to be protected -- it's the earliest date for which the DNC said "any state can have its primary today," and exercised no control over the schedule.


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

The argument is that the Feb. 5 states were promised, as part of the deal, that no one except the four early states would get to go before them.

Imagine if, to take an absurd hypothetical, your state was on Feb. 5, and then every other state jumped to Jan. 29.  Would you still take the position that the Feb. 5 state has no standing to complain?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:56:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

I don't believe the 2/5 states in particular were promised anything -- all 50 states were promised that "only four states will go before 2/5 -- two of which will be selected in a fair process in which you can participate, and anyone else who tries will have their delegates stripped," which is what happened.


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:10:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Again, the Feb 5 states might argue differently


Texas Economics
by IVR Polls on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why so? (2.00 / 0)

Why is she the only person who matters?  Did the pledge agreement name her as administrator/arbiter or something?

South Carolina isn't even a party to the pledge agreement.  At best it's what you would call a "third-party beneficiary."  As such, there's really no good argument for allowing a South Carolina official to define the terms of an agreement between other parties.

And that's especially true when her definition conradicts the clear terms of the pledge itself.


by Trickster on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

I don't really care what Carol Fowler thinks. Obama pledged not to campaign in Florida. Now he is campaigning in Florida.


by arkansasdemocrat on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is up and running (none / 0)

He can make excuses he is the first to break the rules.

Clinton will take it to him there and kill his campaign.   If he gets dusted in FL he has no cred going into Feb 5.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

If he were really committed to the pledge he agreed to, he would have purchased cable time in the individual states, not nationally.  This is a pretty clear violation, but I don't think too many of us expected less from him.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:15:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (2.00 / 1)

Did her campaign pay for the MTP appearance?


by nibit25 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

I don't see how that's a factor.  If Clinton did an interview with a Miami TV station, would that be campaigning?


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:18:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Actually, maybe it would be.  Recall the flak Obama got when he answered a few questions from reporters after a fundraiser, which led to the campaign promising not to do it again.  But obviously no one REALLY thinks a national TV appearance is "advertising."


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:24:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Of course not but Senator Clinton, or any other Democrat for that matter, appearing on MTP is not the same thing as launching an advertisement that the campaign paid for in a state that the campaign has pledged not to campaign in and you know it.

Now, just to clarify, I do not currently favor either Senator above the other but I am sick of each side abandoning reason in either attacks against each other or defense of their candidates. Just take a step back and try to picture Senators Clinton or Edwards making this move instead of Obama and tell me honestly if you would be making the same argument.


by nibit25 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

If Clinton appears on MTP and talks about her stance on US-Cuba issues, is that then "campaigning in Florida"?  If she specifically talks about Florida in a free appearance, then?


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

US-Cuba issues are national issues despite what the Republican party has been selling Cuban Americans so no to that point. And as far as talking about FL in a free appearance, mentioning a state, or even issues that might involve a state are not, at least in my interpretation of the DNC rules a form of campaigning, and even if you think it is I mean come on Obama is paying for an ad to be run in the state and Hillary is apparently talking about Cuba. The two do not equate.


by nibit25 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MTP appearance (none / 0)

Did Obama pay for his appearance?


by del on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:34:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

It seems to me you're missing the important point about this poll - Obama is beating Edwards by eleven points.

All your hard work has paid off!


by Shawn on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:18:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

How does that equate to campaigning in Florida?  Obama willfully purchased ads that would air in Florida after he was advised that his national ad purchase would violate the pledge he made with other candidates after Florida breached the DNC rules.


by truthteller2007 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Huh?  As I've posted in a separate comment, Obama was specifically advised by SC's Dem Chair that such advertising would not violate any pledge.


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Advertising in Florida is tantamount to communicating with voters through the television.  I quote the memo Obama's campaign disseminated in the wake of Hillary's victory in MI:  

TO:      Interested Parties

FR:       The Obama Campaign

RE:       Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary

Because Michigan violated DNC rules by placing its Presidential Primary on January15th, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee ruled that the Michigan Democratic Party could not use the results of the January 15 Presidential Primary to allocate delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention. In other words, no delegates are at stake today in the Michigan Democratic Primary.

All of the Democratic presidential candidates publicly pledged not to campaign in Michigan, none have visited the state, opened offices, hired staff or communicated with voters through television, mail, phones or otherwise.  In addition, four Democratic presidential candidates, Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Biden withdrew their names from the Primary ballot in order to avoid participating in the Michigan Primary.  Clinton did not withdraw her name even though she publicly committed to not participate in the Primary. Clinton, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich are the only candidates on the ballot today. The Obama Campaign is not participating in the Primary and has not instructed supporters in Michigan whether or how to vote.

Therefore the results of the primary tonight have no bearing on the Democratic nomination contest.

Florida, whose primary was scheduled for January 29th, is just like Michigan - the DNC applied full sanctions for setting an early primary date and there are no delegates are at stake.  As with Michigan, all of the Democratic presidential candidates signed a pledge to not campaign in Florida. Although Senator Obama did not remove his name from the Florida Primary ballot because Florida law did not allow him to do so, Senator Obama is firm in his commitment to neither participate nor campaign in the Florida Primary and its outcome has no bearing on the nomination contest. We raise Florida today because Senator Clinton has scheduled a fundraiser in Florida on Jan. 27th, and there are signs - despite Senator Clinton's public pledge to the contrary - that she may be planning to campaign in the state - inquiring about large venues and increased organizing activity - ahead of the Florida primary.

Our position and the position of the DNC is clear - neither the Florida nor Michigan primaries are playing any role in deciding the Democratic nominee and we are not campaigning in either state.


by truthteller2007 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (2.00 / 0)

hehehe, prepare to be ignored.  Adam does not like be challenged with pesky facts and those unfortunate Obama campaign memos.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

General advertising cannot violate such a pledge.  No one's telling Floridians when to vote.

Is it that Clinton's CoH prevents national advertising?


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:29:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

And Visack said it does, why would they matter?


by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Because Vilsack is a Clinton endorser, and Iowa's interests have already been protected?


by Adam B on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

And so does Sullivan from NH.


by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

I don't think you are correct.  It was the four state parties who insisted on this thing (hence the name, "four state pledge"), not the DNC.  I'm not aware of any evidence of DNC involvement at all.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:35:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

"Desperately wants Florida to matter"?

Are you not at all wondering WHY Obama is so far behind in a state like Florida? This state is more representative of the country as a whole than Iowa, NH and SC as for demographics.  All the bullcrap that "everything changes after Iowa" was just that, even though Obama won that state.  The pertinent polls for the big states simply have not moved, Clinton is ahead by miles.  I think this action shows that Obama is desperate.  Ad buys are never NATIONAL, even on a national channel like CNN.  They are frequently regional.  The ad buy should have excluded Florida and Michigan, as per pledge.

 Still, back to my original point: I am baffled that Obama posters don't have it in them to look at these types of polls and search for answers, try to figure out why Obama is in such low esteem in a gigantic and pivotal state like Florida.  Instead we get "that's why Clinton desperately wants Florida to matter."  


by georgep on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 08:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (2.00 / 1)

Talk about apples and oranges.  I don't recall anyone saying Obama violated the pledge by being on MTP or GMA, so this relates solely to the ad buy.  Inadvertent or not, I think all the candidates should have the same opportunity to get their message out.


by Kingstongirl on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 05:20:34 PM EST

Your trendline numbers are wrong (none / 0)

Survey USAs last pre-Nevada Florida poll reported the exact same numbers as the poll released today. The poll was done from the 11th through the 13th.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=3c6d6fc8-7b0d-4f88-84dc-1df98e c7691b


Obama2008....?
by ctnewbie18 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:03:28 PM EST

Re: Obama as VP-Pressure will Mount (none / 0)

There are plenty of more experienced African American politicians Clinton could turn to as a running mate.


by hwc on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:03:52 PM EST

Re: Obama as VP-Pressure will Mount (none / 0)

It's going to be Obama.

Despite the campaign ugliness Clinton knows it will be MUCH easier for her to win the presidency with Obama aiding in states with large African American populations.

Also, once she has Obama she has virtually all his supporters and donors which both unites the party and gives her a huge financial boost over the Republicans.


by kristoph on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:21:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama as VP-Pressure will Mount (none / 0)

Obama has enough fundraising muscle, media juice, and elite level political backing to make it extremely difficult for HRC to select anyone other than him for VP. If he fails to get the Pres nomination, hasn't completely soiled his public image through scandal, the VP nomination is his for the asking.


by blueflorida on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:26:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama as VP-Pressure will Mount (none / 0)

Again, they're blackmailing Clinton, and I hope she will resist this temptation. In political reality, Obama has added zero to a winning ticket except maybe bumping up 2 points in SC, GA and MS...

I'm confident Clinton will think this strategically just as you suggested. A hispanic running mate may be the way to go...


by prisonbreak on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

I think Hillary's campaign has the right idea, and she should concentrate her efforts on Feb. 5 states. I also think that because of this incident with Obama's advertising in Florida, she should start campaigning there. Since she's most likely going to lose South Carolina anyway, she doesn't have anything to lose.


by tlap08 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:08:14 PM EST

Wolfson: the no ads pledge is OVER (none / 0)

Wow!

Howard Wolfson just walked out of a debate-prep session into the lobby of a local Hilton and was handed a phone. It was Representative Corrine Brown of Florida.

The Congresswoman was apparently upset about the Obama campaign's decision to air television ads in Florida--she was watching TV when one of the ads came on--despite a pledge signed by the Democratic candidates not to campaign there to punish the state for violating Democratic National Committee rules.

"The ban is off--the agreement is off," Wolfson said.

He listened for a beat as the Congresswoman told him of her desire to invite Hillary for some last-minute appearances in Florida, and he said, "Then you can say, `I hope that Senator Clinton comes down here.'"

After Wolfson got off the phone, I asked him if Obama had violated the pledge. "He clearly violated the pledge," he said.

http://www.observer.com/2008/wolfson-agr eement


by Berkeley Vox on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:17:56 PM EST

Re: Obama as VP-Pressure will Mount (none / 0)

I don't think either one of them wants to go there.


by India on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:23:16 PM EST

Obama morphing into Jesse Jackson... (none / 0)

...and becoming the "black" candidate.  But unlike Jesse Jackson, he isn't espousing anything populist or progressive now.  No labor rallies, no marches or anything like that.

The Reagan embrace is really surprising, given Reagan's views and indifference to African-Americans.  That's why he's slipping.  He forgot he's a Democrat.

I just hope we can come close to a unified party in Denver.


by mikelow1885 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:32:08 PM EST

30 point lead. (none / 0)

A 30 point victory for Clinton in Florida would be a huge boost for Clinton as Florida will be a battle ground state in the general election.
I just sent in my absentee ballot for a February 5th primary state (you can probably guess who I voted for), and I would presume that 20-30% of the 40% that will vote with absent ballots in Florida have already cast their votes. So Clinton's substantial lead should hold, but her victory will be more symbolic than meaningful, as the Florida delegates will only come into play if the Democratic nomination is in contention.
Also keep in mind that in addition to Florida being hands off to advertising, it is also hands off to ground games. None of the Democratic campaigns are sending their troops to Florida, which I think is a mistake, so all that is left in Florida is the Democratic party establishment, which overwhelmingly favors Clinton.
The question is will a 30 point Clinton victory over Obama in Florida give Clinton a popularity boost anywhere else?
It comes down to the Hispanic America vote in California on Super Tuesday. If the Hispanic American support holds consistent for Clinton in California, then she will probably win the state, and emerge as the clear front runner after Super Tuesday.
I am optimistic for Obama, but I don't see how he can win the nomination, unless Clinton seriously gaffs on the campaign trail, though at the point I think we are beyond gaffs making a difference.
My hope is that Obama keeps the delegate count close, and makes the appeal for him as VP be too much for the Democratic establishment to deny.
As VP, Obama would probably have more influence national than Clinton would, and could get a lot of the domestic legislation he strives for passed, simply through the public inspiration that his speeches would create. Obama as Clinton's VP would be like 16 years of him as president, and I doubt his speeches will ever stop being inspirational.
"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:34:36 PM EST

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Why in the world does Hillary have such a large lead amongst Hispanics?


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:38:40 PM EST

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

She has worked her behind off with that community.  Obama in contrast, not as much.


by georgep on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 08:07:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Read that FL deal is off (none / 0)

Wolfson has been in contact with FL legislatures who have seen Obama commercials up in FL and are urging CLinton to come in immediately.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:43:30 PM EST

Unrelated, but... (none / 0)

...this pisses me off.  This is the lead paragraph on CNN.com right now:

"Analysts say black women never have held such power in determining the Democratic nominee for president. Black women are expected to make up more than a third of all Democratic voters in South Carolina's primary in five days. These women face a unique dilemma: Should they vote their race, or should they vote their gender?"

Ummm....how about they vote for the candidate they believe in and who reflects their values?  

And about they throw the race card, the gender card, the identity card, the conventional card, and every other divisive, un-insightful, and unrealistic card in the trash.


by rcipw on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:47:34 PM EST

Re: Unrelated, but... (none / 0)

As Atrios points out, there is at least one other race/gender group that faces the exact same "unique dilemma."  And it's a pretty big one!


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:54:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

Socks, Hispanics know the Clintons. They like the Clintons. They do not know Barack Obama.


by falcon4e on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:15:38 PM EST

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

fetboy, Obama's speeches will get old if he's the VP. He will then be in the mold of the Clintons. Thats not where Obama wants to be. Obama in 8 years should Hillary win, would have to run as his own man WHILE defending the Clinton record.


by falcon4e on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:17:31 PM EST

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

RCIP, I expect African Americans to support the first real viable African American.


by falcon4e on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:18:23 PM EST

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

And women shouldn't support the first viable female candidate?

I just reject the whole frame.  In terms of practical political analysis obviously we look at demographics.

But I think it is a personal decision for most voters, not a race or gender one.


by rcipw on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

This "first viable AA candidate" may win less states and a lower share of delegates than the non-viable Jesse Jackson in 1988.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 08:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Polling (none / 0)

RCIP, you can reject the frame, but I just disagree with you. There are a lot of people(probably a lot more than we all want to admit) who say:

"Obama is black so I'm gonna win for him"

"I like Bill, so I'm voting for Hillary"

"John Edwards got a $500 haircut, I'm not voting for him"

"Hillary is a woman, I'm not voting for her"

"Barack is black I'm not voting for him"

I just don't think it's a surprise at all that an overwhelming majority of African Americans are supporting a very viable African American candidate in Barack Obama.


by falcon4e on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:35:16 PM EST


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