MyDD :: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary

Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:30:21 PM EST

I am not in the general habit of writing about third-rate candidates who have little to no shot at their party's nomination, but when the opportunity arises for a little Rudy schadenfreude, it's hard for me to pass it up.

Today's Siena poll does not bode well for Rudy Giuliani's Feb. 5 big-state strategy, showing New Hampshire/South Carolina victor John McCain has surged into a 12-point lead over the former mayor in his home state.

McCain has the support of 36 percent of New York Republicans, compared to 24 percent for Giuliani, who led McCain 48-15 just one month ago.

[...]

Coming on the heels of this morning's Siena poll, the WNBC/Marist poll shows much the same: John McCain has blown past Rudy Giuliani in the former mayor's home state with a 15-point lead among Republicans likely to vote in the Feb. 5 primary.

Among enrolled GOP voters, including leaners, McCain got 34 percent to Giuliani's 23 percent. Among likely voters, McCain remained at 34 percent, while Giuliani was tied with Mitt Romney for second at 19 percent and Mike Huckabee received 15 percent.

In the past week or so Josh Marshall has been having a debate over at his site over whether Giuliani's candidacy is the greatest flop in history, with some saying that Giuliani indeed holds the honor while others point to Gary Hart in 1988 or Ted Kennedy in 1980. I'm not going to step in the middle of that debate, but suffice it to say this polling is about as embarrassing as it comes for Giuliani. At the same time, these numbers serve to underscore the need to soften up John McCain while we still can.

Tags: Rudy Giuliani, Republican Primaries, New York (all tags)

Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment

The poll also has huge numbers for Clinton (none / 0)

She is up big on Obama with support spread evenly across the state.

This might be an instance when Obama takes a few delegates downstate and then gets beat badly everywhere else. Clinton is pretty popular in rural NY, which is pretty Republican but has warmed somewhat to Clinton over her first 7 years as Senator.

by dpANDREWS on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:34:26 PM EST

Re: The poll also has huge numbers for Clinton (none / 0)

NY loves Clinton. She beat Rudy something like 64 to 34 if I remember. And he's a native New Yorker.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hil & Rudy didn't run against each other (none / 0)

Ah, I believe he dropped out before the election. Supposedly for prostrate cancer but he was falling behind in the polls before dropping out.

by del on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 07:44:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

I kept trying to tell you guys. People may have liked the Myth of Rudy, but nobody likes the actual guy once they get to know him.

Keep in mind this was a guy, the two-term Mayor of New York, who was forced to concoct a health excuse and drop out of the 2000 Senate race because he was trailing some carpetbagger lady in the polls.

The last time Rudy - world's biggest Yankees fan! - went to a Yankees game, he got booed.

I always felt very, very confident about our chances against Giuliani. It's a real pity he flamed out so fast, no pun intended.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:34:44 PM EST

the New York media bias (none / 0)

I think the Bloomberg hype is similar: Just because much of the media lives in NYC, doesn't mean the country is secretly longing for a New York mayor to be President, even if they are.

(Hillary is a national figure, and not part of this comment.)

John McCain is a Bush ally on Social Security.

by John DE on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 03:31:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

Rotten Rudy! I can't help but wonder who advised him on this strange strategy to pretend the early states didn't exist. Did they really think he'd be able to hold on the sizable leads he had? How could that be remotely possible if you aren't part of the news cycle for weeks and weeks?

Of course, I'd rather have Rudy as the nominee than McCain, but no matter. Our side will win either way.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:35:47 PM EST

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

No one REALLY advised him to ignore the early states. He put a ton of time and money into New Hampshire. It was just that after he totally failed to catch on everywhere, they came up with this narrative that they were following some crazy Florida-based strategy.

And since the media kinda likes Rudy and all his 9/11 manliness, they kinda fluffed for him on this one. You can bet they'd never let Hillary get away with some "oh, I never really tried in Iowa" cover story.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

Good points. It's too bad. I was really looking forward to one of our guys demolishing Rudy in a debate.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:41:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (2.00 / 2)

Well, of course, one of our guys DID. God bless Joe Biden :)

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:44:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

Biden did sorta have the best 'pop the balloon' timing for that one.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 03:24:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Charlie Cook can sell that bicycle. (2.00 / 1)

Charlie once famously said he had more chance of winning the Tour de France than Rudy had of winning the Republican nomination. He was getting worried. As someone who worked in NYC during Rudy's rule, I never thought he had a chance either.

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:37:06 PM EST

worst flameout ever (none / 0)

It's not even close. Ted Kennedy was running against a sitting president. Even though Carter was unpopular, an incumbent always has resources.

Rudy was ahead in polls, was raising money, and had Roger Ailes and Fox News behind him. But he can't even crack the top three in a single state that's voted--midwest, northeast, south. That is astonishing.

If he had made the faintest effort with moderate Republicans, he would have finished a strong third in Iowa--perhaps even second. Having lunch a few weeks before the caucuses, I overheard a table of Republicans talking about the race. One of them said something like, "I thought I was going to be for Rudy, but I am loving Romney."

The anti-immigrant stuff has hurt Rudy, even among some pro-choice Republicans. A woman at that table full of Republicans said she had no idea that the U.S. had "sanctuary cities" like New York and San Francisco. Someone seemed to have sent out a mailer on that to Iowa Republicans.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:38:06 PM EST

Re: worst flameout ever (none / 0)

At some point you're going to have to change your sig line to pick on a relevant candidate. :)

I simply couldn't imagine Rudy winning Iowa, not in a million years, because his abrasive personality and his kinda colorful New York schtick just won't ever play in Peoria. Did you say it's you or your husband who's from out East originally?

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was waiting for the Huckabee google-bomb (none / 0)

which never happened. I may have to go back to the McCain one I used last spring and summer.

My husband grew up in NJ. I am Iowa-born and grew up in the house we live in now (though I lived out of state for about 15 years).

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:54:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The best Rudy line of all. (2.00 / 1)

"A small man in search of a balcony."

by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:43:38 PM EST

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (2.00 / 0)

John Glenn's in 1984 has to rank up there too; all year, '83, touted as the second choice after Mondale.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 03:22:53 PM EST

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

Ha. Ha. Ha. Ha. Ha.

Couln't have happened to a nicer guy, too...

give me a wall! check out one of the best indie bands out of england in a while, ¡Forward, Russia!

by Sean Fitzpatrick on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 03:36:30 PM EST

We need to bring down McCain (none / 0)

McCain will be the most dangerous choice, not because he is the most electable, necessarily. But because his election would change the narrative on Iraq again. This guy is dead wrong on Iraq. So what if his strategy was better than Bush's . It was still a dumbass idea to get into Iraq. His pronouncements on national security are ridiculous. If he wins, then the press will catipulate on Iraq and say the people really didn't care about the failings in the middle east.

by Pravin on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 06:11:52 PM EST

Re: Giuliani Now Trailing in the New York Primary (none / 0)

So Giulani is tanking? Too bad. I was looking forward to calling him Il Duchebag.

by beerwulf on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 08:01:26 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.