Four years ago, it might be said, Iowa caucus-goers went with their heads and abandoned their hearts, choosing experience and their perception of electability in John Kerry over the more inspiring messages of John Edwards or Howard Dean. One day out from the 2008 caucus, if the DMR and Strategic Vision polls are accurate, caucus-goers appear poised to repent for that decision and choose the unite and change message of Barack Obama over the more practical experience message of Hillary Clinton.
I confess that I had been expecting experience to rise on the list of caucus-goers' priorities as caucusing became less theoretical and closer to a reality; I figured people would end up thinking more about bread and butter issues and even the war and foreign threats (especially after the Bhutto assassination) as caucusing approached rather than the less tangible message of change that Obama offers. So far, that prediction does not appear to be bearing out.
From the Strategic Vision poll out yesterday in which Obama increased his lead over Clinton by a net 4% and Clinton dropped to a statistically insignificant 3rd place:
"Obama increased his lead and would appear to have some momentum going into the final full day of the race while Edwards appears poised that with his superior organization that he could still eke out a narrow victory," said Johnson. "Clinton, surprisingly in light of events in Pakistan, lost support with a clear majority of Democrats expressing a desire for change over experience. [...]When Democratic voters were asked what they most looked for in a presidential candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology, 34% selected ideology; 33% selected charisma; 20% selected experience; and 13% were undecided.
"The problem for Clinton in this question is that the number of Democrats favoring experience continues to decline with recent events in Pakistan failing to change this," said Johnson.
This follows the analysis of the DMR poll, which of course showed Obama with a 7% lead over Clinton:
Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country.Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.
Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait.
Clinton had made the decision in the closing couple weeks of the campaign to play up her role in the Clinton White House and to run on her experience, both foreign and domestic, a message that sometimes manifested in a fairly fear-mongery "vote Clinton or else" message coming from surrogates such as Bill Clinton and Evan Bayh. They made the calculation that experience could kill two birds with one stone: both make the case for Clinton as the best president and as the best candidate against the Republicans in the fall.
So if Iowa does choose Obama tomorrow night and reject Clinton's experience as electability frame, will that mean Iowa voters have suddenly repudiated their tendency toward the electable? Hardly. Rather, it will simply be a rejection of the Clinton definition of electability. I thought this was an interesting observation by Douglas Burns in his Iowa Independent piece "Why Barack Obama Will Win The Iowa Caucuses:"
Obama will cobble together western Iowa counties with ivory towered college towns and eastern cities within the shadow of his Illinois. What's more, while he is running a tight race with U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards with traditional voters, Obama will pull ahead with new people, not just the young, but the never-before caucus-goers. I see their faces in the crowds. [...]Here's another reason Obama will do well in western Iowa (and win the whole thing): Democrats listen to their Republican friends and family. They know who has the best shot against the Republicans in a general election -- an instinct a recent Zogby Poll bears out by showing Obama beating all GOP presidential candidates.
I've talked politics with more Republicans and Independents in the past ten days over the holidays than I ever do in three months in my normal life and the message is frustratingly clear: "I can never vote for Hillary Clinton." The added message from the Independents in my very unscientific survey is a deep enthusiasm for Barack Obama. This can't help but start to impact Democrats' sense of who is electable and who isn't and may indeed drive voters to support Obama over Clinton tomorrow night.
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