I think the highest anyone will get would be between 33-36% - Which will be Edward's Range

I think HRC will get between 31-34%

Obama - between 24-27%

Richardson - 9-12%

Biden - 5-7%

Dem turnout up on 2004 but not as high or as non-Dem as the DMR poll suggests (130,000-140,000):

Edwards 35
Obama 30
Clinton 25

GOP turnout down on 2000 (70,000-80,000):

Romney 30
Huckabee 28
McCain 14
Thompson 12
Paul 7
Giuliani 6

But your totals for the 6 candidates you mention equal 110%.

Clinton ekes out a narrow victory due to high caucus turnout of her supporters and great get out the vote effort.

Edwards closes strong due to rural support and second-choice support.

Edwards and Clinton precinct captains work in cooperation to squeeze out extra delegates from Obama.

Obama brings in record numbers of independents but not enough to seal the deal.

Final vote:
Clinton: 31.5
Edwards: 30.8
Obama: 28.5

I haven't visited Iowa, so my prediction is based upon polls, news/blogs, and lots of Obama's legendary kool-aid.

Obama -- 32
Edwards -- 30
Clinton -- 28
Biden -- 6
Richardson -- 4

I think you're about right. Huge turnout. Obama, followed closely by Edwards, with Clinton a few points behind Edwards. No one else gets a significant percentage of the vote.

They have tried their best to tear her down.  They have elevated Obama to almost Ghandi or MLK status.  Yet it is still razor tight.

That being said pundit after pundit that I listen to on tv or radio seems to dismiss Clinton's chances.   They seem to think it is Edwards with the seasoned caucus goers, or Obama with the newbies.

If Clinton wins the media spin will be interesting.   They will either turn on her even more, and suggest a hollow, perhaps unfair victory.  Or they will rush to name her the nominee.

I am going to stick with my top three:

Edwards, Clinton, and Obama.  Think Edwards and Clinton will be close at the top with Barry trailing a bit in the back -- maybe 8 to 10 points off the leader.

My take all along has been that Democrats will decide the winner and Edwards and Clinton have gone after the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.  Obama has not ... at least not as much.

Edwards and Clinton have gone after union support, working people, women and older voters.

Edwards - 42
Obama - 28
Clinton - 20
Biden 6

Turnout 130,000-135,000

I don't expect 175,000 for turnout. It's so frickin' cold here, colleges aren't back in session, and many older people are still gone on vacation. In 2004, 124,000 was a large turnout, the desire to beat Bush was high, and that race had four candidates who were viewed as having a real chance to win. I expect turnout to top out at about 135,000.

Edwards will be viable in the most precincts across the state, and he will dominate in rural Iowa. One factor that has been largely overlooked is the second-choices for supporters of the other top two candidates, who will be viable in fewer precincts than Edwards. With many Obama supporters' disdain for Clinton, and vice versa (to a lesser extent), they will be more inclined to go with Edwards as their second choice. Edwards: 40%

Clinton has a hard floor of support at about 20%. Her ceiling is lowered by limited appeal in rural Iowa and lack of second-choice support. She has a strong operation that will get her die-hards to the precincts, but her older base of support is less inclined to go out in this cold. Clinton: 27%

I think Obama's support is the most heavily concentrated, which will hurt him, and he and Clinton are competing in many of the same places. His strategy of bringing out new voters has been tried before, and the results are usually disappointing. Obama: 26%

Richardson is the only governor in the race, but his lack of retail campaigning skills have cost him: Richardson: 4%

Dodd has the firefighters, and they'll double his poll numbers: Dodd: 2%

Kucinich hasn't even campaigned in Iowa. His die-hards are few and far between: Kucinich: 1%

Three way tie...

Edwards 30
Hillary 29
Obama 29
Richardson 6
Biden 5
Dodd 1

P.S. I'm a precinct captain for Obama in Des Moines.

I predict that people that know anything substantial are not going to reveal it at mydd.

but I will predict that lots of people are dealing in wishful thinking and that the CW all along is right, that Clinton can come in third, Obama second and they are okay going forward.  

All interesting predictions.

Well here goes. I will not predict for those I do not believe will reach double figures.

Edwards 34%
Obama 31%
Clinton 30%

Can't get much closer than that. Obama in my mind has the widest range of possible finished. He could get 25% or 40% depending how young people and independents show up. Clinton can win if late deciding women lean her way, which is very possible, but there is not a positive trend for her right now. I think some seriously underestimate her turnout opperation though, and her core support is every bit as enthused if not more so than Obama's and Edwards's. Edwards will win, I've been saying that even before his late momentum. Second choices will put him over the top. And his core support is the most reliable to show up. High turnout doesn't hurt his as much as some say.

For the Republicans.

Romney 38%
Huckabee 35%
McCain 15%

WTF if Huckabee doing going on the Tonight show the day before the Caucus? He may end up regreting that. This is a two way race. Romney will edge out due to the GOP more confortable with his positions (well the positions he maintains right now anyway) on immagration and fiscal issues.

First Choice
Edwards: 26%
Obama: 25%
Clinton 23%
Biden: 12%
Richardson: 9%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 1%

Second choice (Delegate Allocation)
Edwards: 36%
Obama: 29%
Clinton: 24%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 4%

The first choice numbers will reflect fairly accurately what much of the polls are saying, a very tight race between all three top tier candidates.

But the second choices will go mostly for Edwards and Obama and due to the weighted delegate allocation in rural precincts, the change in delegate allocation percentage will look higher for Edwards than Obama.

Turnout: 132,000

My Prediction:

Edwards 31
Clinton 29
Obama 26
Biden 7
Richardson 4
Dodd 1
Kucinich 1
Uncommitted 1

Further, I don't think that turnout will be radically higher than past years. My prediction:

138,000

coming in second would be a huge loss for her.  she has 400 staffers, more than any other campaign (by at least 100).  her campaign claims to have lined up 4,900 drivers to take people to the caucuses with another 5,000 people offering rides AND more than 600 shuttles.  these are unprecedented numbers.  there won't be a hillary supporter in iowa who's not at the caucuses.

moreover, hillary has the most endorsements, including that of the vilsacks, and the major unions.  hillaryland and their allies will have spent more money than any other campaign in iowa, when it's all said and done.

if hillary doesn't win iowa, and win it decisively, it will have been a massive failure in organization and actual support.  if hillary can't win with such overwhelming organizational and financial advantages, how can she win when there's a relatively even playing field?  the metrics are obvious: hillary will win iowa, win decisively and by a respectable margin.

ftr, i've been in and out of iowa, i've seen the top four candidates there and i am not volunteering on any campaign.  the obama campaign has been impressive, but hillary has to win.  her raison d'etre demands it...

Either someone will win by a clear margin, or someone will be in third by a clear margin.

I am having trouble making my final prediction, because I wouldn't be too surprised by any one of the top three winning. Here goes:

Edwards 35 percent
Obama 28 percent
Clinton 27 percent
Biden 5 percent
Richardson 4 percent
Dodd 1 percent
Kucinich 0 percent

In my precinct: 2 delegates for Edwards, 2 for Clinton, 1 for Obama, 1 for Biden

I would so love to get that third delegate for Edwards, but I fear we will fall short.

Dems:

Obama 32%
Cliton 29%
Edwards 28%
Rest 10%

Republicans:

Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 19%
Thompson 13%
Rest 11%

Gut:

Edwards 35
Clinton or Obama 30
Clinton or Obama 25

I simply don't believe voters change their behavior, especially when not given a compelling reason. None of the three have given such a reason. Not even my candidate Edwards. 2004 was an intense year in which everyone was ABB in the general, and still the turn out is not as dramatically spectacular (yes it was high, but not to the degree being profered here as pollsters here are claiming in a caucus (which by the way is always lower than the general election intensity). People don't see some Satan in the choices they have. The numbers also expect people change party identification. Don't believe that one either. Too many theories masquerading as substance, and that's why I pick Edwards to win. If the regulars who show up do support someone else- then fine- I can accept this, but all these new voters theories has as someone else has put it- been the grave yard of many campaigns. finally, the numbers all seem to not fully take into account that the state is a caucus state. Am I to believe that Edwards strength in rural IA is going to be the same as Obama's? I guess it comes down to what you want to believe. I believe people show us who they are. None of which comports with the polling.  

Another prediction:

Even with his win, Edwards will have to fight the narrative that he isn't first tier because his message does threaten the status quo. It's like the same effect Huckabee will receive. Expect some race or gender issue to be raised by th epress as to why he won despite the polling because of the race or gender gap rather than the faulty polling. This is in part because the press has built itself on infotainment.

what i wish:

obama   36
edwards 32
clinton    24

what i think:

edwards  34
obama     32
clinton     28
(everyone else single digits)

turnout 170,000

<< i've never set foot in iowa!! >>

I posted this last night on Open Left:

Entrance poll:

Clinton 30
Obama 30
Edwards 28
Biden 6
Richardson 4
Kucinich 1
Dodd 1
Gravel 0

Final Results:

Edwards 37
Obama 30
Clinton 28
Biden 5

Note: In my life, I have spent approximately three days in Iowa, all of which was prior to the 2008 campaign. I have no special knowledge of Iowans, polls, or... anything, really. This is just what feels right. If I got any of it right, I'll be shocked.

I also have no favored candidate. I'm voting Uncommitted in Michigan's primary.

Clinton 30
Edwards28
Obama 27

OR

Edwards 30
Clinton 28
Obama 26

Iowa isnt some magical land where people just show up in thousands because you want them to. A win for Edwards is a win for Clinton. It doesnt matter even if she comes in third, as long as Obama does'nt win.

oooohhhh....i forgot the republicans!

I think romney will pull out a squeaker over huckabuchanan by less than 5 points.  Mccain in third, with Paul doing unexpectedly (in terms of MSM expectations) well.

This is less a prediction than what I'll be watching for on Thursday.

First of all, the lines at sign-in. If there are not long lines to sign in, caused by new registrants slowing down the works, then we can forget a huge surge in ind and gop participation. But that'll be hard to gauge on tv; I expect that reporters on the spot will overemphasize whatever new registration there is.

Secondly, entrance polls should drop a bit before 7 central. I expect Clinton to be ahead or tied for first. Polling done at polling places has, esp in recent years, shown a bias for better populated areas (esp with respect to the caucus, where rural precincts are over-weighted relative to # of particiapants) and towarsd women (recall the big leads Kerry had in 04 until someone realized they had badly oversampled women in a lot of states.) Probably due to a self-selection bias. Still, if Hillary isn't ahead or even in the entrance polls, its going to be a bad night for her.

From the standpoint of an Edwards supporter, the key will be not having the press right him off early, based on anecdotal evidence of "high turnout" (which is not necessarily bad news for Edwards; it could raise viability threshold and force Biden, Richardson and Dodd supporters to the second choice which is more likely to be Edwards) or based on entrance polls. If entrance polls come back, as I expect they might, looking like where the tracking polls are Obama, Clinton even and Edwards a couple of points behind, that should be good news.

I expect Hillary will come out early and claim victory based on entrance polls. Media will make inevitable comparisons to Bill in NH in 92. It'll be the new, subdued Hillary and she'll everything she can to avoid any comparison with Dean.

If in fact Hillary does the obvious and comes out early to declare victory based on entrance polls, that leaves Edwards a wide opening to speak later in the evening about how he listens to the people, esp in rural areas, rather than the media.

I expect the Iowa party plans to have precinct chairs phone results into a push-button server, so that if it runs smoothly, actual returns should come in fast and furious -- with the smaller precincts where there are fewer people to count and higher viability thresholds returning first. Those should be good for Edwards so lets hope he leads in early returns.

Best case scenario of course for Edwards is a win of 6+ over Clinton, with Obama another few points or more back. If that happens, we'll see a lot of fence-sitters come down for Edwards, in NV where I am, and I can only expect, in NH and SC, too.

Downballot, it will be good news for Edwards if Biden beats Richardson, esp if Richardson is very low. Although by no means does all of Richardson's support go to Edwards, he has the most organization in NV of any of the second-tier candidates and it would help Edwards a lot if those people go up for grabs out here.

Clinton- 36%

Obama- 28%

Edwards- 23%

rest....

My prediction? Sometime in between now and '16, Iowa is going to be told to get stuffed and forcibly shoved further back in the pack.

We cannot continue to choose our candidates via roulette. Even the candidate who comes out on top this time will be so ground down by this idiotic process that they'll agree a change has to be made.

As for what happens tomorrow--we might as well try to predict the weather a month in advance. You can sorta kinda predict a standard election result based on polls and trends, if there are two candidates and the one with the higher vote total will unequivocally win, but this? This is insanity, and I think we're just giving ourselves heartburn trying to make sense of it.

I expect a very close race in Iowa and an overwhelming Clinton in NH. Obama has much fuzz but I dont see where he has some topic really occupied. Clinton has health care and women, Edwards his law show. I think theyll all be around 30.

Turnot for the dems will be 144,000-a gross thousand.

Results:

Obama 30
Edwards 28
Clinton 27
Biden 8
Richardson 4
Dodd 2
Kucinich 2

Repub turnout will be pathetic, lucky to break 80,000.

Results:

Huckabee 33
Romney 28
McCain 15
Paul 9
Thompson 8
Guiliani 6

The same people who propelled Pat Robertson in 88 will come out for the Huckster.

Democrats:

Clinton 33
Edwards 32
Obama   28
Biden    5
Others   2

turnout - 140,000

Republicans:

Huckabee 35
Romney   20
McCain   20
Thompson 11
others   14

Obama 32
Edwards 30
Clinton 27

Turnout 145K

If we did this predition three days ago I would have betted on Edwards for momentum. But a couple of things have changed by mind for Obama...

1. The latest three polls all show Obama leading (Zogby is tied). This is a gain for Obama in all of the polls from a leveling off about a week ago. Momentum is with Obama/Edwards.

Even if you don't use DMR numbers, at least look at their daily tracking for their three days of polling. Clinton consistantly polled lower eached day, while both Obama and Edwards were gaining support.

2. Crowd Size

Argue what you will about the meaning of crowd size, but the fact that by and far Obama has been gaining massive crowds over the past few days is a telling sign, especially with the cold (FWIW, it is also telling that Edwards can garner crowds at 3AM!).

Also, the numbers of first timers in his crowds is important to note. It supports what the polls have been showing, that first timers will make up a very large portion of the caucus goers this year. If they will go out in subzero temps for a rally they will most certainly go to the caucus.

What is in good favor for Clinton? Her incredibly ground support. With everything from 4,000 carpoolers to babysitters and daycares, they know who their base is and are doing everything to get of the woman vote. But I must question how much of a turnoff this is to male voters who may consider Clinton? There is a thing a playing the gender card a bit too strongly, and she may be teetering on that line.

All in all a wonderfully interesting race...one which all 3 candidates will survive into New Hampshire.

I do expect Richardson to drop out after Iowa, perhaps Dodd as well.

I'm beginning to think it will be muddled and no clear winner emerges. If I were Edwards, I would head straight to Nevada and South Carolina while Cliton and Obama kick the crap out of each other in New Hampshire, and wait for the (possibly) wounded winner.

Turnout: 145,000 max (+17%) That's quite a jump given the Republicans are having an incredibly hard fought race and it was up 50% last time when there wasn't GOP caucus. Does anyone really think that the only GOTV machines are on the Democratic side. Any Republicans or Republican leaning indies are going to be at the Republican caucus.

Clinton wins narrowly with 35% of vote based on solid attendance by committed Dems, some female epiphanies, her superior GOTV organization and Ms Vilmain as her organizer.

Obama comes second with 33% based on higher, but not high enough turnout by indies and younger voters. If I'm wrong on turnout and it is 160,000 plus he would edge out Clinton but only narrowly by say a 1-2% margin.

Edwards third but only just at 32%. He's really the only one whose shown substantial and consistent movement over the past couple of weeks. So I suspect some Obama flirts are coming home.

Republicans
Huckabee 37%. He's the protest candidate. People are mad I see him riding a wave of little man fervor against "them." And Romney is definitely one of "them."
Romney 30%. There are enough establishment Republicans in IA to give him this.
McCain 23%. A hell of a finish for a guy who hasn't campaigned. His will be the big story on Friday.
Thompson and Rudy 10%.

Quite a few are predicting turnout around 145,000 which is where I think it will be max but with Obama or Edwards winning. That is not what the DMR, the most negative Clinton poll suggested. If turnout is below 150,000 she probably edges out Obama but if it's above 160,000 he edges her out. And there's no way she comes third with turnouts at above 125,000.

Dems:

Edwards - 33%
Clinton - 31%
Obama   - 26%
Biden   -  6%
Richardson - 3%
Dodd/Kuc. - 1%

Turnout - 140,000

GOP:

Romney   - 35%
Huckabee - 31%
Thompson - 12%
McCain   - 11%
Paul     - 6%
Giuliani - 4%
Other    - 1%

Turnout - 80,000

Progressive Blue

I predict that a Democrat will win, well unless it's Obama.  It's a JOKE.  I'll just be happy the damn thing is over with, so I can listen to the post Iowa spin by all the campaigns, as we move into NH.  I'm willing to bet that debate (date?) in SC is going to be UGLY, as past winners and losers try to seal the deal or play spoiler.  I don't anticipate a Dean Scream, fabricated or otherwise, but the best part is that the voting has begun.

I would not be shocked by any of the top 3 Dem candidates winning Iowa.  That being said, here are my predictions...

Democrats:
Edwards 33%
Obama 30%
Clinton 28%
Biden 3%

Dem turnout: ~135,000

Republicans:
Romney
Huckabee
McCain

140,000 turnout

Edwards 33%
Clinton 31%
Obama   29%

Thugs

Huckabee 34%
Romney   29%
McCain   16%
Thompson 13%

Turnout of 180,000
  Democrats
Barack Obama    33%
John Edwards    27%
Hillary Clinton 25%

 Republicans

Mike Huckabee   29%
Mitt Romney     26%
John MCain      17%
Ron Paul        10%
Fred Thompson   8%

Analysis: on the democratic side turnout will be unprecedented with more young people, Independents,and a few Republicans, and a lot of women.
Barack Obama : will benefit the most from the huge crop of new voters and will get 33%

John Edwards : will do well in rural areas and 2nd choice voters to get 27%

Hillary Clinton: going with huge negative will come out 3rd. She will stay close to John because she will get a lot of women to the polls

On the Republican side, the turnout will be pathetic at around 70,000

Mike Huckabee: eke out a first place finish beacuse die-hard evangelical followers will come out strong

Mitt Romney: a close second because of his strong organization and deep pockets.

John Mcain: 3rd place finish but the media will not stop talking about him after that night

Ron Paul: will surprise a lot of people and take 4th place. His supporters are motivated and are not totally represented in the traditional way of polling. Why? because they are young and mostly used cell phones.

Fred Thompson: will still be the lazy guy

Democrats

Edwards: 38%
Obama: 30%
Clinton: 27%
Richardson: 3%
Biden: 2%
Kucinich: 0%

I think Edwards will do well on second choices and the rural areas will carry him to victory. He had a fantastic closing ad that I think will go over very well and help him with undecideds.

turnout: 137,000

Republicans

Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 28%
Paul: 14%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 12%
Hunter: 2%

turnout: 80,000

Obama 36
Edwards 27
Clinton 25
Biden 7
Richardson 3
Dodd 1.5
Kucinich .5

Huckabee 35
Romney 31
McCain 14
Thompson 10
Paul 5
Giuliani 5

Here's my completely amateur take on tomorrow night:

2nd tier candidates, steer their 2nd choice voters to Obama.  They can't afford a Clinton 1st place or it's over for everyone, and for a second tier candidate to have any chance of catching on, they'd need to bump one of the top three to third -- and I think the other campaigns consider Edwards the most likely to fall to third.

There are many voters who want a candidate with experience, where Clinton's numbers are very strong.  But I think a surprising number of late deciders will go for Joe Biden, boosting his numbers enough to jump Richardson for 4th place, and taking enough "experience" voters to see Clinton's totals drift downward to the mid-20s.

Richardson polls a disappointing 5th, sticks around to see what he can do in the Nevada caucuses, and then drops out to endorse Clinton in the Feb. 5th deathmatch.

Dodd is a fighter for the progressive cause, but just never gained traction.  There's no reason to drop out before New Hampshire, but he'll be a non-factor there as well.

On the Republican side, there's been some stagnation in Huckabees numbers as he's lost some soft support, but his Evangelical base is more enthusiastic than Romeny's, and organization can overcome many deficits, but not this one.

McCain's late bump gets him to 3rd, and probably a 1st in New Hampshire.  Grandpa Fred shows a little bit of life in squeezing up to double-digits, but not enough to get the South Carolina win he desperately needs.

Giuliani can wait until Florida all he wants, but being tied with Ron Paul in Iowa starts a run of downward momentum that ultimately crushes his chances.

In the end, I think we see Obama vs. Huckabee.

Turnout unusually high 160-180k, Obama by 4%+ over nearest rival.

Turnout about 165K.

For the Democrats:

Obama 32%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 27%

For the Republicans:

Romney 32%
Huckabee 29%
McCain 16%
Paul 8%

The Obama hype is real:

Obama 37
Edwards 31
Clinton 24

Buh bye Hillary. Buh bye John boy.

I suspect that Obama's support is concentrated in a few precincts around colleges and upper income areas. He will get a large share of the total vote but few delegates. Which may or may not look impressive. Doubling turnout in student precincts raises his share of the total but doesn't get him delegates.

The big battle will be Edwards and Clinton, who have statewide support. Expect them to be about even with each other. Edwards has his rural organization. Hillary has the support of Vilsack and the regular party.

See it this way:

Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Biden
Richardson
Dodd
Kucinich

Expect the first three to be about equal in total votes but Edwards and Clinton will have the delegates.

Republicans:

Huckabee
Romney
Paul
McCain

Clinton- 33%
Edwards: 30%
Obama: 29%

RichardsonDoddBiden share the rest.

Democrats:

Edwards 35%
Obama 28%
Clinton 23%
Biden 5%
Richardson 4%
Uncommitted 2%
Dodd 2%
Kucinich, Gravel < 1%

Biden and Richardson will get steady 10% support throughout much of Iowa, but fall short of viability in too many precincts.  The big three will not throw any of them lifelines.  Clinton slips on second choice ballotting, Obama will hold a steady second place, Edwards will rock in the rural areas.  Richardson and Dodd will pull out before NH.

Republicans:

Huckabee 33%
Romney 31%
McCain 11%
Paul 10%
Thompson 5%
Giuliani 4%
Uncommitted 4%
Keyes 1%
Hunter 0%

Thompson and Hunter will drop out before NH.  Rush Limbaugh will s**t a brick.

IOWA

Obama 30%
Edwards 28%
Clinton 25%

Huckabee 35%
Romney 33%
Thompson 11%
McCain 10%
Giuliana 5%

NEW HAMPSHIRE (just for fun)

Obama 35%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 19%

McCain 33%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 22%
Giuliani 9%

Because of the way caucuses are structured, I doubt there is room for three candidates to finish somewhat evenly at the top.  The nature of a caucus is to winnow the field down at the top and also allow openings for a lower tier candidate to become a compromise candidate that upsets the whole apple cart.

For 3 candidates to finish near each other at the top, they would all probably have to do very well in almost every precinct throughout the whole state.  I doubt this will be the case.

There will probably be two tiers amongst these three candidates.

Outcome 1. One candidate finishes a fair distance ahead of the other two.

Outcome 2. Two of the candidates finish near eachother at the top with the other candidate behind them both.

I have no guess what the order will be except to assume as most of the general public does that no one will be able to beat Hillary.

Biden has a chance of coming in 3rd or 4th.

Obama-36
Edwards-27
Clinton-25

Huck-32
Mitt-30
McCain-18

Chances of winning:

Clinton - 40%
Obama - 40%
Edwards - 20%

The only thing that would shock me would be a third place finish for Obama.

Here goes:

Obama      34.2
Edwards    26.5
Clinton    25.6

Huckabee   37.5
Romney     25.2
Paul       15.5
McCain     15.4

No real clue.

I can tell you all sorts of things that I could see happening, but no predictions that I really want to stand behind.

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

That's just based upon what I have read and heard within the last couple days.  
I think the two big wildcards are turnout and the Clinton supporters who don't reach 15%.

-Zen Blade

Edwards 36
Clinton   33
Obama   32

this is the percentage of delegates each will receive after reallocation.

This is pretty tough, but it's the truth:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=gTTv5V0LKBs

Note: contains some graphic images.

Here's Mine

Obama   75%
Edwards 20%
Hillary 5%

Turnout ( 500,000 )

It's as crazy as everyone else's predictions.

Virtually impossible to predict, but based on turnout, I believe it will be:

Clinton 33%
Obama 29%
Edwards 28%

Obama 38
Edwards 29
Clinton 26

I'm a biased precinct captain for Obama, but this is based on the news that Biden and now Richardson are going to throw their support to Obama as second choices.  It's not like these Biden and Richardson people are going to follow the word of their respective campaigns, but it's likely to at least boost Obama's numbers by 4 percent or so after regrouping.  

P.S.  I predicted Edwards winning just 4 days ago, but the momentum on the ground here is just too strong for Obama.  

Clinton             37%

Edwards           34%

Obama             29%

I say the women who want to see a woman as the next president will get out there is huge numbers. As usual, the MSM which is mostly men have no idea what is actually going on in the real world. Thank God they don't have to birth those babies; this plant would be de-populated in one generation.

I don't think its going to be anything like 34% - 33% - 33%.  I'm thinking very high turnout, 160 to 170 thousand.  I think Clinton comes in a distant third.

Obama - 41%
Edwards - 32%
Clinton - 23%

Republicans:

Huckabee - 30%
Romney -   25%
McCain -   20%
Ron Paul - 10%

I predict that the Republican Primary will be won by Some Nutjob.

I think Biden will have some unexpected strength

Edwards 31
Clinton 26
Obama 25
Biden 12
Richardson 4

Obama   37.14
Edwards 33.69
Clinton 29.17

On the republican side Huckabee takes it over romney with mccain 3rd and paul 4th..

Democrats:
Obama 32
Edwards 27
Clinton 24
Richardson 7
Biden 6
Dodd 2
Kucinich + Gravel 0

Republicans:
Huckabee 26
Romney 24
McCain 20
Thompson 12
Paul 10
Giuliani 7
Hunter + Keyes 1

It appears that the Obama campaign is counting heavy on first timers and high enthusiasm ...if that happens that is a very good thing...however That was Dean in 04.

Clinton is the John Kerry... DLC establishment, powerful background...most likely to take on the Republicans..

Edwards...finished 1st in a number of places and finished 2nd in many more...that is still in place.

I see Dodd rather than Richardson in 4th...
This will take some votes from Obama and Edwards...

It is the second choice....

most polls show Edwards clear majority 2nd choice..

There is this beief that only the "second tier" come in to play here. There will be places where
Obama, Edwards, Clinton don't get 15%...Where do they go?

All that
Edwards 38%
Obama 27%
Clinton 31%  
Dodd 8%
Richardson 6%

Republicans...to weird to tell (and I don't care...

Mitt by more than folks think
Huck...by less than folks think
Fred in a surprise 3rd (he's playing that humble card that goes well in Iowa)
Johnnie Mac...a dive...immigration bugs Republicans

My predictions:

Edwards: 34%
Clinton: 28%
Obama: 18%
Everyone else: 20% combined.

I think the turnout will be higher than many expect, around 160,000. This will benefit Obama (young and non-Dems) and Edwards (new Dems). Still, HRC will barely come in 2nd from an overrepresentation of women.

Obama = 34.6%
Clinton = 31.1%
Edwards = 30.4%
Richardson = 2.4
Biden = 1.1%
Dodd = .4%

Obama claims victory, builds momentum in NH, and sweeps the early states (except Michigan, of course).

Thoughts?

PS. Huckabee 38%, Romney %31. Like the papers said in NH, what a fake.

dude, your numbers add up to 110%, so you are almost certain to be wrong in thwe aggregate!

turnout 147,500

Clinton 35
Edwards 32
Obama   30
Other    3 Biden gaining over uncommitted

Edwards will not get threshold in a more metro areas then expected.
Gender will play in Clinton's favor.
Obama will not get the number of independents he hopes for.

In almost all of the poll scenarios I use from my simulator (http://Winchell.org/IowaDemForecast.zip)
show all the 2nd and 3rd tier candidates getting less than 1% of the state delegates, so I don't think it matters who is in 4th place. The media will have to spin the entrance polls which don't include viability thresholds to come up with someone who has a moral victory.

Choosing 1-3 is much harder as the scenarios depend on which poll numbers you start with as a basis.

But I'm going to go with my heart and say
1 Edwards
2 Can A (1-3 points back)
3 Can B (7-10 points back)
Is Obama candidate A or B, I can't say.

If I ignore my heart and just go with poll analysis (taking into account all the complexities of the caucus system), then I think it will be
1 Obama
2 Edwards (2-5 points behind)
3 Clinton (who will lag 7-10 points behind Obama)