MyDD :: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton

MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:53:42 PM EST

NBC News/MSNBC has just called Nevada for Hillary Clinton. Word has it that CNN has also called it for Clinton, as has the Associated Press.

Update [2008-1-19 16:24:9 by Jonathan Singer]: According to MSNBC's David Shuster, NBC News is projecting that Hillary Clinton will receive 14 delegates today to 12 for Barack Obama, putting the current spread at Clinton 38, Obama 37.

Update [2008-1-19 16:52:7 by Jonathan Singer]: Per Marc Ambinder, turnout for the Democratic caucuses "exceeds 100,000", more than doubling projections -- yet another GREAT omen for Democrats' chances come November.

Tags: Nevada Caucuses, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Permalink :: 60 Comments :: Post a Comment

I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

by nerdoff on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:08:01 PM EST

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

You want a Democrat to win in November, don't you?

by mikelow1885 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:10:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

Interesting comment. Do Democrats now have to move over the line to get a Democrat elected? The face is the story. This is the look of Republican Lite, Clintonism, and Neoconista foreign policy.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 06:07:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bob Kerry did it. (none / 0)

I've voted a straight Democratic ticket my entire life. Obama has a liberal voting record (in spite of the constant distortions on this blog) and I feel he is the future of the party. When Bob Kerry endorsed Hillary and the next day did the "Hussein" number on Obama, I realized Hillary was Satan. After seven years, I'm tired of Rove. I don't want eight more years of him from Shrillary. She's Republican Lite. I'm a social liberal and an economic conservative. Why not vote for McCain? It's time to give somebody, anybody else, a try.

by nerdoff on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 06:44:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

Why are you such a big fan of Bush politics, no health care and conservative Supreme Court Justices?

by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

I am sure he will vote for a Dem come November, but comments like this are practically inevitable what with the bile that has been spewed from supporters of both camps here at MYDD.

I fear that this community is dead.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:18:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

You know, this community spews MUCH less bile then the dailykos and it's not hurting the dailykos much.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

It does get pretty vicious, but it happens every cycle and inevitably gets sorted out... We have good candidates, with far more similar positions and goals than the Republicans -- take heart! :)

by frankies on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

Nah, DKos is going to implode, but MyDD will be fine.

by WMCB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:53:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

Dkos is what is left of the Democratic party. Why shouldn't it implode.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 06:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

Can't say that I have seen the name JDF pop up too often in discussions here, and I am here pretty regularly (family and work permitting.) So, I don't think you can judge this stuff all that well, from the outside looking in. When Clinton is our nominee, dkos will look like an angry mess while this site is positioned pretty well moving forward.

by georgep on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:59:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

And as long as people keep making comments like this one more and more people are going to talk about supporting someone other than Dem here. Way to go guy.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:19:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

I have a grip. In fact I am in the great minority of people around here who have a grip. Which is why I have been advocating a civil argument rather than the petty flaming bullshit that has been going on here for months.

I am so sick and tired of the crap that has been going on here and I will say whatever I want about that.

I don't know whether everyone thinks we are going to go back to being one the same side once this is over or if they just don't care. But people better start thinking about it a little more clearly because I think the anger, bile, and disgusting behavior that has taken place from supporters of all of the candidates isn't going to go away once a nominee is chosen. People are going to remember how they were treated and how they treated others. Some will be ashamed of it but mostly I think battle lines have been permanently drawn and that is pretty sad.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:30:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (2.00 / 2)

Stating that you believe John McCain would be better for the country than Hillary Clinton advertises nothing but a lack of political judgment. Thanks for letting us know where you stand.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm voting for Mcain in the general. (none / 0)

then you were never a true democrat to begin with or do not understand that the appt of good people to the supreme court is vitally important in the next administration which McCain wont do...

by athyrio on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Woo Hoo! It's Margarita time!!!

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:08:09 PM EST

CNN Calls It for Clinton (none / 0)

by BDB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:09:02 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

CNN just also projected Clinton the winner.

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:09:03 PM EST

Vegas Baby! (none / 0)

She crushed him with with women and Latinos.

Huge blow to Obama. He should win big in SC ... by 15 or more, but is he viable nationwide, in states without a huge African American population?

No. I don't think so.

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:09:18 PM EST

Re: Vegas Baby! (none / 0)

Iowa?

by danIA on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:12:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vegas Baby! (none / 0)

I think this is still far from over...

Don't get me wrong, Hillary could easily crush him on Super Tuesday and wrap it up. But it is just as easy to see him going into the 5th with some momentum and making a real race of it.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

CNN CALLS IT FOR HILLARY

by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:10:05 PM EST

Pray for a McCain defeat (none / 0)

Our only chance this November now is if McCain is not the nominee. Go Huckabee! Go Romney! Go Thompson! If we're going to nominate the arch-partisan Hillary then we better hope the GOP nominates someone who equally repulses Independents.

by elrod on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:10:14 PM EST

Re: Pray for a McCain defeat (none / 0)

I tend to agree, but I think Obama might have an even tougher road against McCain.

Let's hope he gets buried in the GOP primaries. Hillary would beat Romney and probably Huckabee too, although that would be a lot closer.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ABC in the general (none / 0)

anybody but clinton

by nerdoff on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:10:30 PM EST

that NV poll was an outlier (2.00 / 0)

That's my guess. Edwards wasn't advertising in NV and wasn't planning to campaign there after Wednesday. He added a bunch of events after that poll showed it so close, but I'm guessing his internals had him way behind, otherwise he would have made more of a play for the state.

I so regret that Iowa did not deliver for Edwards. But truthfully, even with the NV unions behind him he would have had an uphill battle.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:27:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I doubt his support really dropped (none / 0)

from 27 percent to 6 percent in a week. I think the polls earlier in the week had an unrepresentative sample.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ABC in the general (none / 0)

in the GENERAL moron.

by nerdoff on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 06:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

She has so far won 4 of the 9 at large caucus sites, including the Paris by a LARGE margin.

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:10:39 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Did she win Cirque De Soleil?

by Shawn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Obama had some big advantages here. It's a caucus state and the Culinary endorsement was huge.

California has similar demographics, but it's a primary state, and Obama has no labor advantage there. Obama doesn't have a chance there.

by markjay on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:10:55 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

It is clear that the CWU endorsement meant little. The rank and file broke with the leadership and voted for Hillary it would appear. He has to win SC huge for this not to be over though.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

I would think a large percentage of culinary workers are Latino, diluting the value of the union endorsement.

by mikelow1885 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama had the union and more field offices (none / 0)

But it is Clinton that leaves NV fired up and ready to go.

.... thats right you heard me.

LOL

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:11:06 PM EST

so much for nevada is hard to poll (none / 0)

the polls were right on, and thank God for that!

by yellowdem1129 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:13:00 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

I'm wondering why so much fuss was made about the Culinary Union. According to a comment in another thread here, the at-large caucus would, at most, constitute 6% of the delegates. That's substantial but not sufficient to convert Obama's prospects from way-behind to presumptive favorite.

by DPW on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:13:36 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

6% is a lot of delegates and a big difference between a win and a loss in many states

by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:15:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

True, but no one expected Obama to get all 6% of those delegates. If the endorsement boosted his numbers, say, 20% among those 6% of delegates, that only comes to 1.2% in all. In the larger scheme of things, that's not a game-changing endorsement. The Culinary Union narrative that everyone was pushing seems absurd.

I'm not spinning. I'm just trying to figure out what those people were thinking. Maybe there is something I don't know.

by DPW on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:22:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

The Culinary endorsement - and look, their apparent agenda to get all their members to vote the same way by hook or by crook - would probably mean a LOT more in a normal, low-turnout election like NV usually has.

This year where the populace at large was much more engaged, a single group makes much less of a difference.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Well, I have not been convinced that any kind of pervasive bullying or crookedness was going on. The UNITE ad was terrible (as well as surely ineffective), and I won't defend that for a second, but the anecdotal reports were never substantiated to my satisfaction. Considering that Hillary won at least half of the at-large caucuses, it's even more difficult to believe.

In any case, even in a lower-turnout scenario, the 6% ceiling still applies. And, as I said, Obama's advantage among that portion of delegates could only be boosted so much (I would think 20% is optomistic). So, again: because that only translates to a 1.2% bump, why the enormouse fuss over that endorsement?

by DPW on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it's called a brilliant campaign (2.00 / 1)

by complaining about a ridiculous process, the Clintons got their vote out.

And once again, Bill Clinton used the media when they thought he was hurting Hillary.

by yellowdem1129 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:15:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Obama is being pidgeonholed as representative of African American interests. Largely of his own doing, I think. Not much of a future when you're perceived as speaking for a group that makes up just 14% of the total population.

by robert ethan on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:02 PM EST

He did it to himself (none / 0)

he should have had integrity and not have any of his people talking about Dr. King and race.

It shows they are desperate to win s.c. But now South Carolina can be discounted because of black voters.

by yellowdem1129 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He did it to himself (none / 0)

I know- it seems he did it to win South Carolina, which seems to have worked- but at what price? It may have cost him votes other places.

by reasonwarrior on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:58:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Obama lost the Belliego too and the Paris by a HUGE margin.

What happened to Obama at the at large cites? Someone seriously messed up.

by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:47 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

EWWWW...

Think CNN could have found a better picture of her? She looks more like an old woman that hit a jackpot than a presidential candidate... maybe that is what CNN was going for though since it is in Las Vegas.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:15:41 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

From the Las Vegas Sun: Clinton has carried at sites in the Flamingo, the Rio, Paris Las Vegas, the Bellagio, and Wynn Las Vegas. Only the site at Caesars has gone for Obama so far. First vote at the Mirage was 178 for Clinton and 153 for Obama and 3 for Edwards and three uncommitted. So on second round, that site, too, apparently will go for Clinton. ~~~ We already know from Todd that the Luxor went to Clinton...very interesting day, especially the PARIS vote.

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:17:14 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Great news. Hillary began the week with a great debate performance, and ended it with a great win in Nevada. I still think Obama has the edge in South Carolina, though it could now be closer than a lot expect. Could be a nail biter.

by Christopher Lib on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:18:00 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (2.00 / 0)

I had expressed doubts whether Obama would be able to turn out all those young folks and first-time voters like he did in Iowa, without 6 months and tens of millions of dollars to get the perfect ground game organized. I'm starting to think my skepticism was justified.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:18:02 PM EST

I think Iowa was a fluke (2.00 / 0)

because all of the media was rooting against hillary.

All of the other candidates were rootin against hillary.

and many iowa voters knew if they voted for Hillary, the race would be over.

they almost took it to far, and Clinton barely won n.h.

But hopefully this will be the beginning of the end of Obama's campaign.

by yellowdem1129 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:19:39 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

clinton is the biggest disaster for the democratic party going into the general

by nj49ers83 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:32:07 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Your assertion does not get any more persuasive just because you post it over and over and over.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:37:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

congrats to Hillary.

She is inevitable now. If she doesn't win SC because of the momentum of two straight wins, then that would be big, but she probably has it all locked up now.

by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:37:34 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

She will lose by a minimum of 10 in SC. I am not sure that it will matter though. The truth is that very little has changed since yesterday- we don't know how feb 5th is going to pan out and we don't know how Edwards support will break when/if he pulls out (and potentially endorses.)

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Bill live with Hill at the White House? (none / 0)

Way to count your chickens. This race isn't over yet... and more importantly there is no reason to believe the GE will be a cakewalk. You might want to focus on getting her elected before you start thinking about the White House decor.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:39:19 PM EST

10 lessons from Nevada (none / 0)

All in all, this is a pretty close result, if it ends up 5 points. Didn't the entrance poll have Hillary up 15?

The real story is this:

1) Latinos and Latinas support Hillary and are willing to turn out for her

2) African Americans are completely behind Obama

3) Union endorsements mean squat

4) There are a LOT more women than men in Democratic Primaries

5) Obama was down 20 a few weeks ago, came back and made it even, then fell back around 5 points. That's exactly what happened in New Hampshire.

6) This was a very close race and nobody has sown this nomination up, what with both camps flushed with cash

7) Edwards is a non-factor from now on.

8) Caucuses are a terrible way to select a nominee.

9) Obama really does have cross-party appeal; many Independents and Republicans voted in the Democratic caucus and not the GOP one

10) Whoever is the nominee, we must ALL get behind her or him. I'm an Obama supporter through and through, but I will vote DEMOCRATIC in November, no matter who is on the ticket. We must ALL prepare for that inevitability.

by elrod on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:48:18 PM EST

Re: 10 lessons from Nevada (none / 0)

Sounds like you have already.

"We must ALL prepare for that inevitability"
ELROD

Obama will probably win SC but then it's largely over. She'll win FL and sweep everywhere super tuesday with exception of IL.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Excellent news about Nevada. A great test case for the western states. Hillary must continue working hard to grow the Latino vote. They are arguably a very important in counterbalancing AA support for Obama. Hillary must continue to shift to the western states as the are becoming just as important, if not more so that the southern states. Hispanics are a key part of Clinton campaign stratergy. She's done a great job so far and is building insulation against the AA vote flocking to Obama. If Hillary wins with major Latino support, they will become the new players the Democratic party. The shift has to be carefully and sensitively managed though.

by superetendar on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:00:36 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

How about we all discuss the really high turnout?!
Can't we all just get along?

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:21:39 PM EST

Re: MSNBC Calls Nevada for Clinton (none / 0)

Ya know...
Folks that have an established preference...are you so insecure that you have to say what you say?

If you are following things carefully...and I am sure you are....No candidate coming to Denver will have 51%.

Maybe Mitt will have 51% over there maybe not...

This stuff aside...where will you be on Monday for your MLK observance?

I will say something from my own experience from Denver which had one of the first MLK marches..

I hear African American ministers speak out about Dr. King. But when we have such a basic rally dealing with the anniversary of our illegal invasion...in Denver they are missing.

A few years ago 50,000 marched in Denver against the repressive 4437...but they are not here against Iraq..

I read polls where the majority of "white folks" in Colorado oppose our occupation...yet last year there were an estimated 10,000 were lining the streets for Saint Paddy parade..when one the same day ..There were less than 1,000
for the protest against Iraq occupation rally...

a simple reminder...and what sign will you carry on Monday...who will you challange to stand up..

but go ahead and pretend feeble comments in support of your candidate or trashing another means anything..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b80Bsw0UG -U

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:59:30 PM EST

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