MyDD :: Actual Results Thread

Actual Results Thread

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:53:04 PM EST

Because actual numbers actually matter...

Hillary Clinton 50.75%
Barack Obama 45.12%
John Edwards 3.78%
Uncommitted 0.31%
Dennis Kucinich 0.04%

87.98 percent of precincts reporting

Update [2008-1-19 16:8:29 by Jonathan Singer]: The race has called been called for Clinton.

Tags: Nevada Caucuses, Democratic Primaries (all tags)

Permalink :: 185 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Only 3 % but Clinton should lose this.

I would think she would need a big lead early.

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:14:11 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 50.39%
Senator Barack Obama: 41.86%

You mean a lead like this?

by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:15:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

plus all the polls put her decidedly ahead... (none / 0)

this isn't new hampshire. everyone expects hillary to win...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:18:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: plus all the polls put her decidedly ahead... (none / 0)

Who expects Hillary to win? All I have been hearing all morning from media and pundits is how Obama is going to beat her because of the union.

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

which one? (none / 0)

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:25:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: which one? (none / 0)

MSNBC

by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: which one? (none / 0)

i meant union. obama has his and hillary has her's. i dunno, but afscme vs. the cu. pick one...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:42:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: which one? (none / 0)

The Culinary is much more powerful in Nevada. Its not even close.

The problem with the culinary endorsement is that it came way too late. (Jon Ralston first pointed this out)

by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:47:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

how many paid workers did the cu have? (none / 0)

and how much money did they spend on advertising?

but, yeah, i agree that what you wrote used to be conventional wisdom. before 2008...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:30:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ha (none / 0)

Happy days are here again,
The skies above are clear again,
So let's sing a song of cheer again,
Happy days are here again.
All together, shout it now!
There's no one who can doubt it now.
So let's tell the world about it now,
Happy days are here again.
Your cares and troubles are gone,
There'll be no more from now on!
(repeat first chorus)

Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!

by Seymour Glass on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:18:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama fans predicting victory for weeks! (none / 0)

This new humility has only developed in last 48 hours when polls started showing shift to her. Until then you were celebrating victory.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:42:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

for weeks??? (none / 0)

how many weeks are we from the iowa caucuses???

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:43:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'd prefer bigger (none / 0)

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:26:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Clinton now with 8% lead with 4% reporting.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:14:15 PM EST

I suggest you stop making a fool of yourself (none / 0)

She has no lead. When we see an 8 pt lead with 25 % in, I beleive a lead.

Right now, with 8 % in, they are tied.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:25:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards needs to go home (1.00 / 1)

It is a two person race

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:14:48 PM EST

Re: Edwards needs to go home (none / 0)

I feel bad for JRE. He's my second choice.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:31:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards needs to go home (none / 0)

It's a caucus. He was always going to get lower than he polled. Let him at least be in the SC contest. I am an Obama supporter and I still think he deserves his shot there.

by benb on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

he should stay in until February 5 (2.00 / 0)

Give at least half the country the opportunity to hear his message.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm so scared, yet excited. Please pull this one out Hill. Oh gosh, I'm going to have a heart attack. I've got to calm down. I've got to breathe.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:17:44 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Entrance polling points to an Clinton win in the double digits, excluding the at large caucuses.

You can breathe now.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

I want the actual numbers, real numbers. I don't trust the MSM.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

At least (none / 0)

you have the spelling under control.

One thing at a time, that's the way to go.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:26:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

funny (none / 0)

by souvarine on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just a minor humor (none / 0)

but trying in my little way to contribute to the general je ne c'est qua of the day.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:42:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just a minor humor (2.00 / 2)

Could you possibly mean je ne sais quoi, o guy-who-likes-to-pick-on-spelling?

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just a minor humor (none / 0)

How embarrassing was that little faux pas was for the guy who likes to pick on people's spelling. LOL.

by Kingstongirl on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ich spreche nur Deutsch oder Russich, (none / 0)

nicht Francucich.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:06:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just a minor humor (none / 0)

you it isn't what?

by frankies on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:47:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Lonnette, take a deep breath, now another, one more time. I do this with my kids before bed each night and it relaxes them. Hope it works for you, because it's a long way to go. Just think what Feb5th is going to do you, if you're this excited about NV.

by Kingstongirl on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:34:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

heh... (none / 0)

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:35:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm with Lonette. My heart will probably explode on Feb. 5.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:27:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Anybody know anything about these precincts? (none / 0)

There are, like, 300 Clark County precincts. Any logic to them?

by elrod on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:17:51 PM EST

number of precincts in the last,,, (none / 0)

general election (where democrats whipped up on the gop):

Carson City    27
Churchill     20
Clark         1083
Douglas     42
Elko         42
Esmeralda     6
Eureka     5
Humboldt     16
Lander     10
Lincoln     6
Lyon     40
Mineral     13
Nye     34
Pershing     7
Storey     16
Washoe     534
White Pine     11

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:24:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Whoa (none / 0)

Numbers magic

You have that stuff ready to go?

VERY impressive

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:26:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i did targeting for a campaign that year... (none / 0)

so, yeah, i have all my work on this computer...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mr. NUMBERS Magic (none / 0)

It's fun to have all the statistics available.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Where are these numbers coming from? They seem to be updating live.

by JB510 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:19:24 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

never mind found where they are coming from, at least I suspect.
http://www.nvdems08.com/

by JB510 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama doing well Upstate, Hillary in Vegas (none / 0)

At least that's how the returns are coming in so far. Completely opposite of Norwegian Chef's prediction. Obama leads big early in Washoe (Reno) and in rural northern counties (Elko). Hillary leads big in Clark (Las Vegas) early. Right now they're even overall.

by elrod on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:20:20 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Hillary is way ahead in entrance polls. Obama is really going to have to hope.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/index.html#NVDEM

by Progressive America on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:22:21 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

It's too early Progressive. I'm not predicting anything and neither should CNN.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:25:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Ugh.

I adore JRE. And this is very disappointing. I had really hoped he would at least be able to play Kingmaker. If he doesn't break into double digits, he may have to step aside.

That's a shame, as I felt at the very least he was forcing some important issues on the table.

And I'm very undecided between Obama and HRC.

by GingertheDem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:23:11 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

is the nevadadems site down?

by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:26:30 PM EST

CNN Entrance Poll (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton: 48.31%
Barack Obama: 33.69%
John Edwards: 12.00%
Uncommitted: 3%
Dennis Kucinich: 1%
Bill Richardson: 0.59%

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:27:43 PM EST

that's the 15% margin that was predicted... (none / 0)

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:28:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that's the 15% margin that was predicted... (none / 0)

Please don't jinx Hill.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Religion and superstition dahlink (none / 0)

The numbers will be what they will be. Jinxes religious or otherwise have nothing to do with it.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and that means that JRE is not viable (none / 0)

in many places.

So, how are his people going to reallocate?

Polls in caucus situations are very unreliable.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The actual delegate proportions (none / 0)

have JRE at 6 % or so. That means that 6 % of his support will go elsewhere. If he is at 12 %, some of his caucuses will be viable and some not.

So, if the 6 % breaks for BO, we have a tight race.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:35:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actual results now (none / 0)

with 25 % in, JRE 5 %, BO 45 %, HRC 49 %

That means that all the JRE voters are realigning with BO. HRC is reporting at her pre-caucus level, but BO is much much higher. JRE realigning with BO.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Josh Marshall reports computer problems (none / 0)

in SC. Some of the poll sites have had to close because of computerized voting problems.

We need a constitutional amendment forbidding computerized voting. Computerized TABULATION yes (opscan, etc), but not direct entry of votes into computers.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:31:24 PM EST

Re: Josh Marshall reports computer problems (none / 0)

I have never been much of a conspiracy guy when it comes to the computerized voting being counted properly; but I would love to see us go back to hard copy ballots. A paper trail is always a good thing.

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

80-90 % of Horry county machines (none / 0)

did not function until 1 PM today.

That's a scandal.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:48:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

My guess is nvdems08.com's problem was their 60 second update cycle. Enough people open that on their computers, and your site is going to crash....

Blogging politics and life in general at jimmy.bouma-holtrop.com

by forecaster15 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:33:26 PM EST

the iowa dem site refreshed every 30 seconds... (none / 0)

iirc, and they stayed up all night. it was a beautiful thing...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the iowa dem site refreshed every 30 seconds.. (none / 0)

Good point, but maybe not as many people were watching that one on a late Monday evening vs. a Saturday afternoon? Could be they had more bandwidth, as well.

Not really sure....

Blogging politics and life in general at jimmy.bouma-holtrop.com

by forecaster15 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:37:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

random question... (none / 0)

What does IIRC mean?

Blogging politics and life in general at jimmy.bouma-holtrop.com

by forecaster15 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: random question... (none / 0)

if i recall correctly.

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

thanks (none / 0)

Blogging politics and life in general at jimmy.bouma-holtrop.com

by forecaster15 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:48:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm having problems too.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Give them a break (none / 0)

and read from a secondary feed.

I use TPM. Who needs exactly up to the minute. 1 minute late is fine.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:37:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama was catching up... (none / 0)

Cue the conspiracy theorists.

by souvarine on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama was catching up... (none / 0)

LOL. Nice one. I needed to laugh.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:39:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama was catching up... (none / 0)

You need to calm down. You are acting as though your life is hinging on the Nevada results.

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:44:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NV Democratic Server Sucks (none / 0)

The Nevada Democratic party sucks. I can't believe their website crashed.

It didn't happen in Iowa or New Hampshire!

by BigBoyBlue on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:38:29 PM EST

Re: NV Democratic Server Sucks (none / 0)

Actually, the Iowa Republican site crashed and it took them days to get complete results. What seems to have happened is that with the national interest, state sites have trouble handling the volume (unless designed for way more peak volume). It;s the old post office is slow at Christmas story.

by David Kowalski on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:31:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Do these results include the at-large precincts?

by dan s on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:39:13 PM EST

Las Vegas Sun reports (none / 0)

chaos and big turnouts. Who does that favor? I dunno...

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:39:52 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

The at-large districts are going split between Hillary and Obama. It looks like this is over, Hillary's won. I hope South Carolina will make this a competitive race.

by Progressive America on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:47:53 PM EST

Percentages are stabilizing and solidifying (none / 0)

HRC 50
BO 45
JRE 5

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:50:22 PM EST

Nothing's changed up to (none / 0)

62 %.

I don't see much changing here on out.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I Am Not Alone In Thinking (none / 0)

That Hillary would have to start stacking up SIZABLE wins to sprint ahead in delegate count to decisively beat Obama in the race for the nomination.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:56:24 PM EST

Re: I Am Not Alone In Thinking (none / 0)

What are you talking about? Are you considering superdelegates? She far outpaces him already.

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Am Not Alone In Thinking (none / 0)

If Obama continues to place second in most of the other contests, what impetus would he have to drop out?

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Am Not Alone In Thinking (none / 0)

Who said anything about him dropping out?

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:02:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Am Not Alone In Thinking (none / 0)

Well, if he places second, say, 10 times in a row, wouldn't that kind of show that he wasn't able to win anymore? Even if he's close in the delegate counts, I would think voters would begin to second guess his ability to win.

I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I would think that would be the reason.

Personally, I agree with whatever front-pager said a few days ago that this will still be a race after Feb. 5th.

Blogging politics and life in general at jimmy.bouma-holtrop.com

by forecaster15 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:09:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Am Not Alone In Thinking (none / 0)

Would an extra 5 delegates from NV really matter anyway?

by frankies on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:59:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not momentum (2.00 / 1)

More an indication of how Latino voters will go, and the dynamics of other western contests. The exit polls suggest that Clinton will do very well with the demographics of the Feb 5th states. Not so well with African Americans.

by souvarine on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

It's looking like Edwards will be the big story of this vote. This certainly is not going to help him get the serious press or funding he needs.

by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:02:03 PM EST

You wish (none / 0)

The big story will be Obama losing.

by Shawn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:04:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You wish (none / 0)

The big story in terms of a surprise will be Edwards. He was supposed to be competitive. Obama was 9% behind in the latest poll.

by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The media's already written Edwards off (none / 0)

So Obama's loss is the bigger story.

by Shawn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:08:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media's already written Edwards off (none / 0)

If you wish.

by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You wish (none / 0)

I'm not sure what the "big" story will be, but I am very surprised by Edwards terrible performance here. Didn't we see a poll last week that said it was a 3 way tie?

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:14:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

JRE collapse (none / 0)

He's becoming non-viable.

If he wins SC, maybe he can come back.

If he comes in third in SC, he's toast.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: JRE collapse (none / 0)

If it says anything it goes to show the effect of Union support is vastly overblown. We've seen that in all three contests.

by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I doubt he gave his supporters (none / 0)

any instructions about where to go, but desmoulins could tell us more.

I want JRE to stay in at least until February 5, so half the country will get to hear his message.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

"The spread between Clinton and Obama has held the same for about the last 15 percent of precincts, perhaps suggesting that the results are settling, at least for now, on these numbers, with Clinton up about 5 1/2-6 points."

This also would be very interesting, in relation to the entrance poll numbers (which may themselves still be partial numbers): it could signify that most of Edwards' supporters went to Obama on the second choice allocation, which would cut against some recent analysis that says his older, whiter, more "conservative" base might be a better fit for Clinton than Obama.

by along on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:02:35 PM EST

That was my read up above a few min ago (none / 0)

JRE pre-caucus was at 12 %. The 7 % loss went to pushing Obama from 37 to 44 %.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:05:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was my read up above a few min ago (none / 0)

exactly.

by along on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:08:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was my read up above a few min ago (none / 0)

oh I see, didn't see your title there. yes you're right, if the numbers hold up. that would be a very interesting and useful lesson for Obama to take from NV. not that it's entirely transferable to other states.

by along on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:11:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, caucus only (none / 0)

but JRE has gotta be thinking about the NV results.

They are not good for him.

He can last until Feb. 5 for sure. But after that?

Can he hold out? I don't see where the money comes from. Yes, matching, but that just keeps him alive, not competitive.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:17:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, caucus only (none / 0)

no, I mean what does it say generally about Edwards' support and where it will naturally migrate to? At least 5 different pundits and bloggers in the past week have made convincing arguments that Edwards base will break to Clinton. These results belie that. But they are still NV specific, i.e.: what support Edwards did have reflected the NV demo. That demo doesn't exist in SC and the South. So maybe those Edwards backers will go to Clinton more than Obama.
But, maybe Edwards' CA backers break more to Obama?

I never thought he could last past Feb. 5, but especially not without any wins, and now at least one bad loss. I think he's got to face it and endorse someone.

by along on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:24:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, caucus only (none / 0)

Really? The only people I heard/seen saying that are on blogs. All the pundits I've seen on TV have always said that Edwards is Clinton's best friend, and she needs him in the race to split the anti-Hillary vote. Two of them just said it again on CNN.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:16:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

DENNY! (none / 0)

THHE TV PUNDITS DONT KNOW SQUAT!

MY RULE OF THUMB HAS ALWAYS BEEN, THEYRE ALWAYS WRONG.

easy to remember too.

Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!

by Seymour Glass on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:31:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DENNY! (none / 0)

Works for me.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 07:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dataguy then how did she break 50%? (none / 0)

Look again at the last two polls.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Going from 49-50 (none / 0)

is within sampling error for sure.

Going from 34-45 is a swing in allegance of all JRE voters
Pre Dele
HRC .48 .50
BO .38 .45
JRE .11 .05

JRE's loss of 6 and BHO's gain of 6 are quite similar. I see the JRE supporters going almost 100 % to BHO.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:26:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

In the live caucus CNN was showing the argueing was so intense, one of the Edwards supporters just went home and told them not to count him at all. I wonder how many other places that has happened.

by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:04:17 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

One of the many reasons caucuses should be eliminated.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:17:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

MSNBC just projected HRC as the winner. Woo Hoo!

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:06:11 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

congrats

by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:07:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Thanks Jim!

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:13:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Thanks Jim!

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Matt Drudge (none / 0)

Has indicated Hillary to be in the winner of the NV caucuses....

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:07:29 PM EST

HILLARY!!!! (none / 0)

Viva Hillary Clinton!

Indeed!

What a great day!

by AUD on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:14:58 PM EST

Re:Viva la Clinton! (none / 0)

Soy de acuerdo completamente.

While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama

by bowiegeek on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:15:48 PM EST

She is en fuego (none / 0)

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:16:21 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

WHAT A HAPPY DAY FOR HILLARY AND HER SUPPORTERS!

YAY!!

by AUD on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:20:04 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

I can't vote for HRC in the general. I won't vote for her. I refuse to vote for the worst candidate we have nominated since Mondale.

I feel like the breath has been knocked out of me to see her win this... disgusting.

by nationatunc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:21:06 PM EST

Fine go vote for Bush Clone (none / 0)

You people are a joke. You're certainly not democrats. Move over to Redstate and be happy.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fine go vote for Bush Clone (none / 0)

I've been a Democrat my entire life. I just refuse to hold my nose and vote for such an awful candidate. I am not so trapped to the party line that I have to vote for someone like Hillary.

by nationatunc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nationa Well behave like a democrat (none / 0)

Because you are giving a hell of an imitation of a Naderite twit

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Supreme Court (none / 0)

Suck it up and vote for our nominee, no matter who it is.

The Supreme Court hangs in the balance.

I doubt you spent as many hours of your life trying to derail the Hillary inevitability train as I did over the past year. If I can vote for her, so can you.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She is the true (none / 0)

compromise candidate. We may have to put off change for another generation.
But like Yogi Berra said "it ain't over til its over"

Listening comes first

by Moonwood on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:48:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Call me a cynic (none / 0)

But I suspect the Obama campaign will have surrogates flipping the race card hard tomorrow and the next day, and I suspect Obama "junior staffers" will be running wild with memos, etc.

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:22:25 PM EST

They're already boasting about % black vote (none / 0)

they pulled. So they are making Obama the "black" candidate. These people are insane.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:27:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

no, we just call you a jerk... (none / 0)

no one plays the race card as often as you. no one...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:30:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jeremiah Wright? Rev. Lowery? (none / 0)

Jesse Jackson Jr?

I am at least in 4th place compared to these characters.

by dpANDREWS on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

is there any reason to believe that you're a dem? (none / 0)

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:32:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

It was/is a Harry Reid State folks....
These are still loose delegates..
However,;
If they stay committed isn't it really a tie?

Reminder..NV IS NOT winner take all..
Remember IA? Obama "won" but it's the delegates to Denver that count..basically a tie.
In NH HRC "won" but it is the delegates to Denver that count. Basically a tie..

Of course I could be wrong..

Note on Republican side... Ron Paul may finish 2nd..
...that will really screw things up for them...

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:22:38 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

I don't think we have any "winner take all" states on the Democratic side.

But half the country votes on February 5. If Obama does not start picking up more firsts to go with his seconds, that delegate lead will start to grow and grow as the larger states like CA and NY cast their votes.

Obama remains the strong favorite to win SC and we will see what happens from there.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:25:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Yes, all the democratic races are proportional, not winner take all. So, basically Clinton got 13 delegates, Obama 12 from Nevada. In terms of momentum, this certainly helps Clinton, but it certainly was not a blow out.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:31:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes he'll win with black vote ie. favorite son (none / 0)

Steve that's how SC is increasingly being perceived. I even saw Matthews admit it a couple of nights ago and he hates Clinton. I actually think NV win or lose for Clinton was not that important except as a guide to how hispanics were going to break. NH and MI have been the only normal or semi normal primaries so far, both IA and NV are screwy to some degree. The next important contest is FL.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:42:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MI was hardly a normal primary (none / 0)

with Obama and Edwards off the ballot.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes he'll win with black vote ie. favorite son (none / 0)

Well, in terms of the overall narrative, all of this is a blip in the news cycle compared to Iowa and New Hampshire.

I suspect you are probably right, but I am going to wait for a few more data points before I succumb to the conventional wisdom altogether.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

All these races (IA, NH, NV, SC) really have only a small delegate impact on the final result.

However, they are really about who can win with which faction which yield momentum in the key states on 2/5.

by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:Viva la Clinton! (none / 0)

Sad to see people costing us the general election by such margins.

by nationatunc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:24:05 PM EST

nogo no spin (none / 0)

Obama got crushed, edwards got embarrassed.

Clinton won, Ever since n.h. Obama and his people were talking up all of these endorsements from senators, unions, etc.

This is crushing.

by yellowdem1129 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:24:07 PM EST

Same margin as in NH (none / 0)

and for the same reason.

You can't win if you get all the women.

Because all the women in the Dem Party are still just 27 % of the country.

She lost bigtime among men. 35% of men favored her.

35 %.

That's a CRUSHING LOSS for Hillary.

by dataguy on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:32:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same margin as in NH (none / 0)

35%? Where do you get that number?

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:36:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dataguy grow up. (none / 0)

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:38:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same margin as in NH (none / 0)

According to the CNN updated exit polls, Clinton got 43% of men compared to Obama's 45%.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:58:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wouldnt't call a (none / 0)

50 to 45 victory in a state where two weeks ago she was up 20 a crushing defeat. She still has a long way to go.
I was hopeful that we might get a real change agent we may have to settle for the compromise candidate.

Listening comes first

by Moonwood on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:45:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I wouldnt't call a (none / 0)

Laughable. A week and a half ago Obama was ahead in a NV poll, and the rest of the polls had a tie. The culinary union has a huge influence in NV, which made Obama the favorite. But it wasn't enough for Obama.

I think Obama supporters are just fooling themselves here. Obama's poor showing amongst Hispanics is a major, major problem for him in many of the biggest states moving forward.

by georgep on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:49:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

George you're making stuff (none / 0)

up again - go to pollster and you will clearly see that Clinton was way ahead for a long time and Obama nearly closed the gap.

Nasty in victory is a very poor personality characteristic

Listening comes first

by Moonwood on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 06:07:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary's (none / 0)

demagoguery works - it worked for Bush

Listening comes first

by Moonwood on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 06:08:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

the general election is over when we nominate clinton,

by nj49ers83 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:24:30 PM EST

Re: Actual Results Thread (none / 0)

Amen.

by nationatunc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:25:15 PM EST
[ P